Where Packers have advantages over 2021 team that lost to 49ers in divisional round

Many expect Saturday's playoff tilt between the Packers and 49ers to end much like the last one. However, Green Bay has improved in a few key areas since the two teams met in 2021.

Nearly two years to the day that the San Francisco 49ers snuffed out Aaron Rodgers' last real chance at winning a championship with the Green Bay Packers, the two teams will again face off in the division round. Much has changed in the time since their last meeting. Whereas the Packers held the NFC's top seed with the MVP under center back in 2021, the 49ers now have taken control of the conference and feature multiple MVP contenders on the roster. Both offenses even have different starters under center.

However, for all that transformation, the Packers' outlook might not seem dramatically different this time around either. The oddsmakers have installed them as 9.5-point underdogs, the largest spread of any NFL game this weekend. While Green Bay has shocked many during their playoff push and subsequent upset of the Dallas Cowboys in the wild-card round, few believe that journey will extend to the NFC Championship Game.

The reasons for skepticism abound. The 49ers have constructed the league's most dominant offense, one which finished the regular season ranked first in DVOA, expected points added per play (EPA/play), and essentially every other advanced metric. Quarterback Brock Purdy sustained his late-2022 breakout into this season while the skill positions feature as much talent as perhaps any group since the "Greatest Show on Turf" St. Louis Rams. The defense remains potent as well despite a coordinator change, finishing fourth in DVOA and 10th in EPA/play.

And, of course, the Packers still have to battle with Joe Barry and his unreliable defense. Granted, the unit has held up over the past three games, but each of those could have gone the other way if not for a key turnover or late-down sack, areas that can fluctuate significantly from week to week. Faced with such an imposing offense, Barry will need at least as much luck and a great game plan to avoid a regression.

But for all those factors working against the Packers, several others weigh in their favor. All of them represent advantages over their upcoming opponent that they did not have two years ago. While Green Bay still needs a few breaks on Saturday, these areas of improvement provide a path to victory.