What's really going on with Jordan Love's extension talks?
The Packers and Jordan Love can now officially sign an extension. However, a new deal has yet to surface. What has changed about the situation since the start of the offseason?
Good morning!
The Green Bay Packers have reached an important date, and not one related to the still-unreleased regular-season schedule. Their franchise quarterback can now officially sign a long-term deal, pushing the club into the next stage of its team-building process. What happens next will impact the Packers for the foreseeable future and have league-wide implications.
Today's edition of The Leap explains how the QB landscape has surprised NFL stakeholders over the past few months and what those developments mean for Green Bay's negotiations. We also cover what the Packers' draft decisions reveal about their view of the roster.
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Jordan Love can now officially sign an extension. What has changed about the situation since the start of the offseason and how will those differences affect negotiations?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: Though the Packers have depicted a long-term deal for quarterback Jordan Love as a fait accompli since the start of the offseason, the two sides couldn't actually sign a new contract until this past Friday, May 3. That date came exactly one year after the team officially inked Love to a one-year extension which, due to stipulations in the NFL's collective-bargaining agreement, meant the team and player could further extend the agreement for 12 months.
Now, that waiting period has concluded, but the Packers and Love have not yet signed a new deal despite having months to negotiate over the details. The absence of an extension doesn't necessarily signal a lack of progress. However, the market does indeed look differently than many anticipated a few months ago, and that has impacted talks.
As The Leap reported two months ago following the conclusion of the NFL Scouting Combine, most teams and agents anticipated that the starting price for veteran franchise quarterbacks to reach $50 million per year. That belief came from a combination of factors outside of Love's situation, mainly the expected new deals for Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa. Additionally, many thought Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs would completely reset the market "within the next 18 months" with a genuine new contract rather than the annual money-moving restructuring.
However, only one of those events has occurred so far. Cousins signed a four-year, $180 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons in March, but true new deals for the others haven't yet materialized. The Dallas Cowboys appear ready to play out 2024 with Prescott counting more than $55 million against the cap while the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins have dragged their feet on extensions for Lawrence and Tagovailoa, respectively. Meanwhile, Mahomes opted for a restructured deal, pushing the full redo effort into the future.
From the Packers' perspective, those developments (or lack thereof) represent a mixed bag. The floor for a Love extension doesn't look quite as high as it did back in early March given the absence of new deals for the other franchise signal-callers. At the same time, Green Bay and Love don't have the contract framework on which to center their proposals, making talks more difficult.
As with most QB negotiations, the longer the process takes, the more the club can expect to pay. The Packers have stated their intention to sign Love to a new deal this offseason, adding pressure to hammer out a deal or risk public blowback. And given that Love has already shown a willingness to bet on himself via the aforementioned one-year extension, any realistic shot at team-favorable terms requires signing him to a new deal in 2024.
And that remains the most likely outcome. Just last week, general manager Brian Gutekunst repeated his desire to lock up Love to a long-term deal. Granted, he also stated early in the offseason that he "absolutely" wanted running back Aaron Jones back for 2024 and eventually had to backtrack, Gutekunst doesn't want to take the same risk with a franchise quarterback he drafted with Aaron Rodgers still on the roster.
What do the Packers' draft decisions reveal about their view of the roster?
JBH: The Packers directly addressed their primary needs during the 2024 NFL Draft, spending two draft picks on off-ball linebackers and three on defensive backs. However, the areas that Green Bay left untouched or largely ignored provide just as much insight into how Gutekunst and the front office view the roster.
After selecting three wideouts in back-to-back drafts, the Packers picked zero in 2024. Certainly, that speaks to the perceived depth at the position, with Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks taking turns as the go-to receiver with Bo Melton and Malik Health providing significant contributions as well. While none has firmly established himself as an every-week, field-tilting receiver, the sheer volume of options bodes well for the offense.
But that analysis merely scratches the surface. The absence of additional wideout investment during last month's draft also speaks to the team's perspective in one important respect: Watson's health concerns. Injuries, particularly those involving his hamstrings, have cost the deep threat three or more contests in each of his first two seasons. That figure doesn't even account for early exits from games nor those where he served as a de facto decoy due to physical limitations.
Last month, The Leap detailed the scenarios in which it made sense for the Packers to draft a wideout in 2024. One of those involved the team adding a prospect with field-tilting vertical speed as a form of insurance. While Green Bay's offense performed at a high level with Watson limited or unavailable, the passing game looked noticeably more explosive with him at full strength.
That the Packers prioritized other needs over a backup plan for Watson speaks in some way to their confidence that he can avoid those soft-tissue injuries in the future. Watson's trip to the University of Wisconsin-Madison to see a specialist "found the sources of the problem," according to his father, Tazim Wajid Wajed. A reasonable person could have read that claim skeptically, but Green Bay's actions suggest that the leadership believes it as well.
On a different injury front, the Packers did not add a tertiary pass rusher to fill in for the injured Kingsley Enagbare. The 24-year-old suffered an apparent ACL tear less than four months ago during a divisional-round tilt with the Dallas Cowboys, putting him on the shelf for the foreseeable future.
However, the prognosis looks much better than initially feared. According to head coach Matt LaFleur, Enagbare's injury did not require surgery and the medical staff believes he can recover through rehab alone. Once again, the Packers' actions underscore their words. While it remains unclear exactly when Enagbare will receive clearance for full contact, he has a chance to return early in the season, perhaps even by Week 1.