What the Packers can learn from the divisional round and draft developments
The Packers haven't taken the field since Jan. 8, but they can still learn from the games that have transpired in the weeks since.
Good morning!
The absence of Green Bay Packers football has left a void. Over the past week, another round of Aaron Rodgers discourse has filled that vacuum. But while a resolution doesn't appear likely to manifest imminently, the divisional round of the NFL playoffs does provide some opportunities to evaluate the Packers' near-term outlook.
Today's edition of The Leap aims to do exactly that along with reading the tea leaves for how the league views the incoming rookie class.
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In your view, what is the most important thing the Packers can take away from the divisional-round games?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: A strong, versatile pass rush can help overcome inconsistent play at safety. The San Francisco 49ers continue to demonstrate this as they boast a talented and deep defensive front but have clear weaknesses in coverage on the back end.
Talanoa Hufanga might have received first-team All-Pro billing, but he hardly performed at that level this season. The second-year safety gave up four touchdowns over the 49ers' final four regular-season games and had some missteps this weekend to boot. Meanwhile, the team has a weak group of corners for a defense that plays so well overall, with Charvarius Ward "headlining" the group.
Despite that, the 49ers didn't give up many big plays to the Dallas Cowboys, whose long gain came on a 46-yard catch by CeeDee Lamb that also drew a defensive pass-interference penalty. The disruption caused by Nick Bosa and Co. essentially reduced Dak Prescott and the passing game to rubble, rendering the Cowboys unable to take advantage of San Francisco's secondary.
For the Packers, this looks like an important data point. The cornerback room should remain strong in 2023 with Jaire Alexander leading a group that also includes Rasul Douglas and a healthy Eric Stokes. But safety doesn't appear so strong, with Adrian Amos set to his free agency and Darnell Savage potentially spending more time in the slot. Barring something unforeseen, Green Bay will have to remake the safety position this offseason.
That doesn't have to create a disaster if the pass rush can overcome it, however. Rashan Gary will eventually return from his torn ACL and Preston Smith seems reasonably likely to stay in town. Add Kingsley Enagbare in his second season and help from the rookie class -- the No. 15 overall pick could realistically if not probably end up along the defensive front -- and Green Bay could have the means to reliability generate enough pressure to limit exposure of their weakness in the secondary.
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Peter Bukowski: Skill-position players can overcome quarterback and offensive line flaws. Just look at the two teams who won: the Bengals and 49ers could not have more different quarterbacks in terms of what they’re asked to do. Joe Burrow surveys the defense, reads out the concept, and consistently makes ridiculous throws into coverage, deep down the field, against the blitz, whatever he has to do.
Brock Purdy pushes the buttons. He does what Kyle Shanahan tells him to do and nothing more. Get the ball to George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, or another half dozen guys whose names you forget until, all of a sudden, they’re making a big play.
And Joe Burrow is awesome, but guess what? So is Josh Allen. But Allen had Stefon Diggs and not much else. As the Packers already know, that’s not a winning postseason recipe. Meanwhile, Burrow can hand it to Joe Mixon to run for 100 yards, throw to Tee Higgins in key moments, or sling it to Tyler Boyd in a slot, and if all that fails, f*** it, Ja’Marr Chase is down there somewhere.
The Packers have built a team predicated on the idea that Aaron Rodgers can elevate everyone around him. And that may be true, but only to a point. And at this point in Rodgers’ career, the best thing for him appears to be loading up this offense with more skill talent to make it easier for him. Rodgers can still make those two or three wow throws a game, but make the rest a little easier with more guys who can make plays with the ball in their hands.
Sean McVay took Jared Goff to the Super Bowl. Kyle Shanahan took Jimmy G. Sure, defenses help, but so does badass scheme and deep skill talent.
The first edition of Daniel Jeremiah's mock draft, one of the best-sourced mocks in media, just dropped. What pick or trend from it surprised you the most as it pertains to the Packers?
JBH: I did not expect TCU star receiver Quentin Johnston not to make an appearance in the first round. During the final stretch of the college season, Johnston seemed to establish himself as perhaps the top draft-eligible wideout in the nation (Marvin Harrison Jr. cannot declare until 2024 at the earliest). But while Jeremiah included two wide receivers in his first-round mock, he did not feature Johnston.
From a size-speed standpoint, Johnston stands out. TCU lists him at 6-foot-4 and, after seeing him in person at the CFP National Championship media day, that doesn't seem too off the mark. He possesses a broad build, has impressive short-area quickness, and can power through contact, key reasons why TCU built their entire screen game around him. Those traits lend themselves well to NFL teams that run some version of the Kyle Shanahan-Sean McVay offense, currently the en vogue system.
Yet, despite Johnston's positives, Jeremiah opted not to include him. For context, Jeremiah has regularly said his big board of the top 50 prospects represents his opinion of the draft class while his mock drafts reflect what he hears from league contacts. With that context, it seems the NFL doesn't view Johnston as favorably as the draft media does, at least at the moment.
This could benefit Green Bay. It doesn't take much imagination to see how a player with Johnston's traits could find success in Matt LaFleur's offense. And while the Packers have seriously considered wideouts in the first round despite their reputation, their current top pick (No. 15 overall) probably won't turn into a receiver unless they trade back. But the front office has aggressively targeted wide receivers early on Day 2, most recently trading up to acquire Christian Watson 34th overall in 2022. Perhaps Johnston could become a similar target if he falls out of the first round.
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PB: The flip side of the receiver trend is tight end! D.J. put three in the first round (none to Green Bay). And while pick 45 will be a trendy spot for a tight end—as will 15 with Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer—if the receiver class isn’t great and the tight-end class is awesome without that blue-chip guy (we’ll see if Mayer is that), then the Packers might get priced out of the top pass-catcher market altogether, ironically, because they pick too high in the first round but too low in the second.
If the pass catchers cluster from say 20-40, which is often how it plays out, then Green Bay might be left wondering what happened. That’s not to say they couldn’t get some good players; two top-50 picks should net them talented football players, but to my above point, this team needs some juice. The shape of this draft class might make that a little tricky.
All that said, that would also mean the Packers could have the chance to take WR1 in the draft. A player like Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks like he’ll hit the team’s preferred size thresholds and, while he’s not a size-speed monster, he’s an incredibly fluid slot in the mold of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Remember, Green Bay could have taken him—they took Amari Rodgers instead. This is their chance to right that wrong.
How should the Vikings feel about the Giants, who out-frauded them in the wild-card round, losing 38-7 to the Eagles?
JBH: To a certain degree, I don't think the Minnesota Vikings should feel any worse than they did a week ago. They knew their defense lacked punch well before the playoffs began while the offense never fully reach its top gear and, despite Justin Jefferson's Herculean efforts, regressed down the stretch. It couldn't have come as too much of a surprise when the similarly overachieving New York Giants beat them in U.S. Bank Stadium nor should it shock anyone that the same Giants team managed a single scoring drive a week later against the Philadelphia Eagles.
If anything, the upset a week ago reinforced the need for change in Minnesota. Already, head coach Kevin O'Connell has fired defensive coordinator Ed Donatell, a nod to the season-long underperformance of the defense. Perhaps that move would have occurred regardless of the loss in the wild-card round, but the fashion in which the Giants took it to the Vikings removed any lingering doubt.
So, in a way, the Vikings should feel better now than they did at the end of the season. The quality of the team remains the same, but the brain trust has publicly acknowledged the shortcomings rather than pretending that none exist.
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PB: The fraudulent Vikings will get a makeover this offseason and while Packers fans enjoyed teasing them about being frauds—because they were frauds—there’s a tinge of jealousy among Cheesehead Nation right now because Ed Donatell is looking for work and Joe Barry’s defense remains at 1265 Lombardi Ave. If Minnesota lands a Brian Flores or someone like that, it will be easy for fans to feel like the Packers not only missed an opportunity, but their division rival capitalized on one.
Teams have to be honest with themselves about where they are in their development. Kevin O’Connell brought in Donatell, but as a first-year head coach with some juice, he made the right call. But now he has to make a better follow-up choice than Matt LaFleur did with Barry. If he does, it’s not overstating it to say that decision could shift the balance of power in the NFC North more than one fraudulent season for the Vikes.