What does the perfect Packers draft look like? (Within reason)

Brian Gutekunst has a chance to elevate Green Bay into the realm of the NFL's elite rosters with another stellar draft, so what does it look like if everything breaks right?

Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur can barely make it through a press conference without talking about “process.” They believe in their process of preparing for games, at practice, and in the film room. The front office stands by their evaluation techniques, draft prep, and decision-making in the war room. And while overall hit rates on any given prospect are a coin flip at best, there are ways to play the edges. So, what if the Packers get a chance to play all of theirs in this draft?

History says teams overvalue their ability to rank and order players, even teams that know what the data clearly shows. We are going to build in the risk teams often don’t, the Packers included: believe history tells us we are bad at evaluating certain positions and therefore avoid them where possible until later, prize premium positions (where our evals tend to be better), and stick with Green Bay’s proven thresholds.

I wrote about this last week, putting together a list of players at each spot that best fit these maxims. We won’t be following the roadmap I put together to the letter, but it will provide a useful guide to at least be familiar with as we move through this.

We’ll use The Athletic consensus board to keep these as realistic as possible as well, especially because not straying too far from consensus is one of the ways to avoid disaster.

25. Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma (26 consensus rank)

When we made the road map using historical hit rates and Packers types, the only four clean names were Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy, UCLA pass rush Laitu Latu, Penn State edge Chop Robinson and Alabama cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry.

On today’s Locked On Packers, we talked about offensive line types, and the potential the Packers could sneak outside some of their usual norms given the revelation the team may be looking to move Zach Tom inside. While Georgia tackle Amarius Mims represents too great a risk in the first round with no athletic profile and a scant eight collegiate starts, Oklahoma behemoth Tyler Guyton poses far less risk for similar upside.

He’s nearly 6-foot-8, 322 pounds yet still hit key agility numbers for the Packers as part of his testing battery. Though Green Bay likes to draft tackles under 6-foot-6, nearly all their recent developmental swings at tackle have been at guys 6-foot-7 or taller (Yosh Nijman, Caleb Jones, and Luke Tenuta). I’m not convinced there’s a strong signal on height for these “types.”