What boxes must the Packers check off before jetting to Brazil?
Friday's tilt between the Packers and Eagles seems like the only thing that matters. Still, Green Bay has a few items to address before departing for Brazil.
Good morning!
In four days, the Green Bay Packers will play a real, official, live, prime-time football game that actually counts. While that matchup -- an international tilt with the Philadelphia Eagles -- might seem like the only thing that matters, a lot needs to transpire between now and the moment that toe meets leather.
Today's edition of The Leap details some of the boxes that the Packers have to check before jetting off to São Paulo, Brazil.
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How healthy are the Packers really?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: Health and attrition ultimately determine most outcomes in the NFL, even early in the season. Officially, the Packers had every member of their active roster practice on Sunday, the first on-field session since the reduction to 53 players. But while a promising development on paper, that total doesn't tell the full story.
Overall, the Packers enjoyed relatively good injury luck during training camp and the preseason. None of the entrenched or potential starters went down with an injury severe enough to sideline them for Week 1. However, four of their first five selections from the 2024 NFL Draft battled health issues that, while not concerning for the long term, resulted in meaningful loss of on-field work during a critical part of any rookie's development.
This dynamic most directly affects the offensive line and first-round pick Jordan Morgan. At one point shortly before the preseason opener, Morgan had taken control of the opening at right guard, pushing out third-year pro Sean Rhyan in impressive fashion. But a shoulder injury suffered during practice put the rookie on the shelf for over a week, and he never ultimately appeared in any of the three exhibitions. Though Morgan returned to practice several weeks ago, the coaching staff has thus far not confirmed he will get the nod over Rhyan in Brazil.
Elsewhere on the offense, hamstring trouble shelved running back MarShawn Lloyd for most of August. The third-round selection managed just 14 snaps during the preseason, finishing with one carry for 8 yards. Lloyd has easily the most impressive speed and burst of anyone in Green Bay's backfield rotation, but that will matter little if the coaches don't trust him to handle the basic mechanics of the offense and execute the non-rushing duties required of his position. Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson will work ahead of him in Week 1, but how well Lloyd responds over the next few days could dictate whether he gets a series, simply plays special teams, or even suits up in the first place.
And the defense didn't avoid the rookie injuries. Both Edgerrin Cooper and Ty'Ron Hopper -- the two off-ball linebackers picked on Day 2 -- missed significant time during camp and the preseason. Hopper did recover quickly enough to see action in the second and third exhibitions, but by that point, his chance of pushing for a starting job had dissipated. For the Packers defense to reach its potential in 2024, Cooper and/or Hopper probably have to move up on the depth chart. That could still happen, but how soon new DC Jeff Hafley and his assistants can start leaning on the rookie linebackers remains entirely unclear.
How will the Packers deploy their top tight ends?
JBH: A year ago, the Packers found uncommon success with each of the two tight ends they selected on Day 2 of the 2023 draft. Luke Musgrave, an impressively athletic pass catcher out of Oregon State spent the first half of the season putting himself on track to break a team record previously held by Sterling Sharpe only for a lacerated kidney to put him on the shelf for an extended stretch. When that happened, Tucker Kraft took over, delivering similarly strong production while adding some physical blocking to the run game.
Fast forward to September 2024 and the now second-year pros face some uncertainty. Musgrave didn't light the world on fire during training camp, with offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich calling the tight end's work product "up and down." Meanwhile, Kraft missed a significant chunk of the offseason nursing a torn pectoral muscle. Both still have considerable upside, but neither can claim to enter Week 1 with a ton of momentum.
Despite how the past few months have unfolded, the Packers still plan to feature tight ends heavily, utilizing 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends) with regularity. How that will work in practice -- especially early in the year -- bears monitoring. How will the coaching staff rotate between Musgrave and Kraft without revealing too much to the defense? When the two play together, how will Green Bay divvy up the pass-catching opportunities? Who will see the most work in the red zone?
The answers to these questions won't merely affect fantasy managers. If Musgrave and Kraft prove effective when paired together, the Packers can both lean into more passing out of 12 personnel and have more big bodies on the field for run plays. The latter could alter the trajectory of the season given how much the offensive line appeared to struggle to move bodies in the ground game over the past few months.
To kick or not to kick?
JBH: The Packers do not yet know how well newly acquired kicker Brayden Narveson will handle regular-season action. For obvious reasons, they won't learn that before the trip to Brazil, and they probably won't know until weeks later at best.
However, Narveson's capabilities represent just one part of the equation for Green Bay. Head coach Matt LaFleur needs to decide when he'll even allow the kicking unit to take the field.
"I think you've got to take into account all the circumstances," LaFleur said this past week when asked if he would go for it on fourth down more often due to the recent change to Narveson, adding, "At least we'll get a couple days with him to kind of a feel for him as he performs. What's hard is you just don't have any game experience with him."
The kicker uncertainty might push LaFleur to take a more aggressive approach on fourth down, at least early in the season. The Packers' headman already ranks as one of the more analytically inclined coaches in such situations, and he could probably squeeze even more juice out of the offense in 2024 given the additional experience Jordan Love, the receiving corps, and most of the offensive line now has relative to a year ago.
(via RBSDM.com)
That doesn't mean the Packers won't need Narveson to nail some key kicks as soon as Friday's game. But the offense has a legitimate chance to become the best in the league. LaFleur can help get it there with smart fourth-down management. Even if the reasons for keeping the unit on the field have more to do with special teams, only the final result matters.
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