Week 1 has Arrived: The Packers begin an unusual game week

The Leap's first game week will see the Packers open their season against the Saints … in Jacksonville.

Good morning!

Today kicks off the first game week for The Leap! In just a few short days, the Green Bay Packers will travel to Jacksonville for the relocated opener against the New Orleans Saints. Thank you for reading and supporting our coverage. You can also support our work by following us on Twitter:

Jason B. Hirschhorn: @by_JBH

Peter Bukowski: @Peter_Bukowski

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Finish the sentence: If the Packers win the Super Bowl, it will be because …

Jason B. Hirschhorn: … the offense finds better counters to the counters. Green Bay only failed to reach 24 points twice last season: a Week 6 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a home defeat to the Minnesota Vikings two weeks later. In both instances, the opposing defenses made the Packers play left-handed, taking away most of the shot plays and largely limiting Aaron Rodgers to throws within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.

Those deep shots form a pillar of head coach Matt LaFleur's offense. While most opponents will struggle to contain them, a few skilled defenses can. The Packers might have lost some talent along the offensive line since last season, but they appear better overall at the skill positions. LaFleur and his staff will have to devise ways to deploy that talent on the occasions where the offense can't attack vertically as consistently as usual.

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Peter Bukowski: … Joe Barry pulls the right strings. If the Packers didn’t have a talented defense, Mike Pettine would still have a job at 1265 Lombardi Ave. But they do, so he doesn’t. Pettine is Halas Hall’s man now. The Packers front, with three capable-to-explosive edge rushers, a stalwart interior defender, and at least three excellent defensive backs, boasts enough talent to be an excellent unit. That is the potential they flashed last season when they were a top-10 defense by EPA in the second half of the year.

We expect the offense to once again thrive, but the defense can’t break down in key spots like it did in the NFC Championship Game two years running. If this group can avoid some of those small mistakes and put together a defense that is 20% more consistent — just be league average or slightly better — they’re good enough to win a Super Bowl.

If the Packers come up short, it will be because …

JBH: … new DC Joe Barry's scheme doesn't unlock the team's defensive talent. Not everything about Barry's approach will differ from his predecessor Mike Pettine. With Barry on the coaching staff in 2020, the Los Angeles Rams blitzed on 29.1% of dropbacks while the Packers defense did so on just 26.1% of passing plays during Pettine's final season. Both defenses also simulated blitzes — showing additional rushers before the snap only to bring just four — at similar rates last year (11.3% for Green Bay, 9.4% for Los Angeles).

However, by using less Dime and playing safeties closer to the line of scrimmage, Barry hopes to fix the biggest issues the Packers defense endured under Pettine (porous run defense, predictable coverages) while maintaining the unit's strengths (pass rush). Barry doesn't have to innovate in Green Bay. Rather, he just has to get more out of the personnel already present.

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PB: … the offensive line doesn’t coalesce. Between blue-chippers like David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, the Packers have more blue-chip talent than most teams on their line. If rookies Josh Myers and Royce Newman (assuming the latter starts), are serviceable starters, and Billy Turner builds on his solid play at right tackle last season, Green Bay will once again boast one of the best lines in the league.

Unfortunately, they’ll almost certainly be worse than last year even if that’s true. For a team who failed to make the Super Bowl because they struggled to block Tampa Bay’s front, this question looms impossibly large over the season. If Newman can be an upgrade over Lucas Patrick—presumably why he’d start over Patrick this season—perhaps they can close the delta between Myers and the departed Corey Linsley (he’s in L.A. not dead, relax). Still, they’ll likely have to face teams like the Buccaneers, Rams, and 49ers in the NFC playoffs, and if the blocking isn’t up to snuff, defenses will have a much easier time snuffing out this Packers offense.

What we're hearing/seeing

JBH: Even with the first game of the 2021 regular season a few days away, an undercurrent has formed that could eventually affect the Packers.

Earlier this year, the Jacksonville Jaguars made the biggest splash of the hiring cycle, luring three-time national-champion coach Urban Meyer out of retirement. Meyer arrived with no prior NFL experience, and those inside the Jaguars organization expected some turbulence as he transitioned from college, where head coaches enjoy highly deferential treatment, to the less forgiving environment of the pros.

Yet even with that understanding, Meyer has already tested the wisdom of his hiring. Meyer's first public gaffe, hiring accused racist Chris Doyle as the team's strength coach, resulted in considerable criticism and the assistant's resignation within 24 hours. Meyer made headlines again when he essentially admitted that the Jaguars considered a player's vaccination status during final cuts, a strategy practiced by every team but one no other admitted to publicly.

Meyer received a pass from ownership for these mistakes. But outside of Jacksonville, the coach's long-term viability in the NFL has become a regular topic of conversation. While a consensus does not yet exist, many believe Meyer will abandon the Jaguars once the losses pile up or the team will grow tired of his collegiate approach after just a few years. In either scenario, the Jaguars could look to Green Bay for a replacement.

Nathaniel Hackett, the Packers' offensive coordinator since 2019, spent the preceding four years serving in multiple roles with Jacksonville. Hackett's work with the Jaguars offense during those years — particularly the game plan that nearly delivered an upset of the heavily favored New England Patriots in the 2017 AFC Championship Game — left a positive impression with ownership. That he lost his job in shocking fashion the following season did little to change that perception.

Perhaps Meyer will adapt to the NFL in the coming months and years and render this conversation moot. Even if he doesn't, Hackett, who interviewed for the Atlanta Falcons' head-coaching position in January and could garner more interest in the upcoming hiring cycle, might come off the market before the Jaguars and Meyer could part ways. But the situation in Jacksonville seems precarious to many around the league, and if it implodes quickly, the Packers' OC will likely garner serious consideration.

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PB: The Packers played their backups to the backups against the Bills or didn’t you hear? I tweeted out how strange I found it that some NFL analysts loved when they saw when Buffalo made it look easy against Green Bay in the preseason. A Packers player reached out to tell me he thought this was also funny, pointing out no game-planning occurred and that he didn’t leave the game believing the Packers would have issues covering Bills receivers not named Stefon Diggs.

He also mentioned how well the offense moved the ball even with third and fourth string players out there. Jordan Love’s No. 1 receiver was Malik Taylor, at best WR6 on this team and no more than Pass Catcher 10 on the pecking order. Green Bay failed to score on two trips inside the five, despite the fact this was the best schemed red zone offense in football last year. Are the Packers worried? Nah.

Parting shots

JBH: While the Packers have improved their COVID-19 vaccination rates considerably since the start of training camp, they remain at risk for availability issues under the NFL's protocols. Green Bay received a reminder of that this weekend from the Dallas Cowboys, who will not have Zack Martin for their season opener after the All-Pro guard tested positive for COVID-19.

"He's frustrated obviously," Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy said of Martin Sunday. "But hey, this is the world we live in right now."

Any case of COVID carries concerns, but because Martin has already reached full vaccination, he can return following two negative tests spaced at least 24 hours apart. Those in close contact with him also will not have to quarantine unless they remain unvaccinated. That provides a critical competitive advantage over teams that have comparatively low vaccination rates such as the Minnesota Vikings.

So while the Packers can't expect to avoid COVID entirely all season, they can reduce the potential damage with a completely vaccinated roster. Two teams have already reached full vaccination status: the Atlanta Falcons and the Buccaneers. According to LaFleur, Green Bay is "pretty close to where we'd like to be," which means the target is in sight.

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PB: The last time the Packers went to Jacksonville, Eddie Lacy led the team in rushing, Morgan Burnett tied for the game high with nine tackles, and though Davante Adams scored a touchdown, Randall Cobb posted the most yards and catches by a Packers receiver. Two of those players will be on the field Sunday when Green Bay travels to Northeast Florida for a Saints game.

Don’t expect a repeat performance from Cobb, though a touchdown from Adams seems likely, and any rushing yards from Lacy would represent a truly bizarre turn of events. Duval County hosted one of the great Aaron Rodgers highlights with Jalen Ramsey draped all over him on a touchdown throw to Adams, just the start of that rivalry which is only now picking up steam.

Ramsey doesn’t play for the Jags anymore and they don’t have anyone at DB capable of locking up the Green Bay receiver group. Maybe Cobb will lead the Packers in receiving after all.