The Packers try to fire Mike McCarthy a second time

A little more than five years after firing Mike McCarthy, the Packers' win over their former head coach might result in his dismissal from Dallas.

Good morning!

On Sunday, the Green Bay Packers became the first No. 7 seed to win a playoff game as they upset the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. That contest affects multiple legacies, and not just those of the players.

Today's edition of The Leap looks under the hood of Green Bay's impressive victory to show how far the offense has come, how much improvement the defense still needs to make, and the likely dismissal of a familiar face in Dallas.

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Sunday's win served as a showcase for the Packers' quarterback, running back, and head coach

Jason B. Hirschhorn: Except for the Mason Rudolph-quarterbacked Pittsburgh Steelers, no team faced longer odds in the wild-card round than the Packers. Traveling to Dallas for a showdown with the No. 2 seeded Cowboys, a historically young and undermanned Green Bay squad looked like a massive underdog. For all the talk of playing with "house money," teams with anything approaching that degree of inexperience rarely make a dent in the playoffs.

And yet, from the moment the Packers won the coin toss, they looked like the superior outfit. Jordan Love delivered the finest performance of his NFL career, completing 16 of 21 passes for 272 yards and three touchdowns. When the coaches initially pulled the starters during the fourth quarter, he actually had a perfect 158.3 passer rating.

And those numbers don't constitute empty calories. Love had to uncork some seemingly impossible throws during the game. On his touchdown to Romeo Doubs, Love scrambled to his right before throwing across his body and off platform, somehow threading the ball through multiple defenders to his intended target.

Meanwhile, Aaron Jones continues to look anything like a running back approaching 30. His 118 rushing yards -- his fourth straight game crossing the century mark -- only tell part of the story. He continues to elude defenders and force missed tackles, squirming his way to extra yardage and more. That skill proved especially important to the Packers in Dallas as Jones managed three touchdowns, two from inside the Cowboys' 5-yard line.

While Love and Jones' exploits serve as the headliners, the Packers had far more major contributors on offense, too many to fully highlight. In addition to Doubs' touchdown, he finished the game with 151 receiving yards, the highest total by any Green Bay player this season. The offensive line gave up no sacks against one of the most imposing defenses in the league. Even the Cowboys' All-Pro pass rusher Micah Parsons managed just one QB hit.

Let's attempt to put the performance into context. According to FTN's Aaron Schatz, the Packers' pass offense produced a DVOA of 190% during Sunday's win over the Cowboys. That ranks as the highest such mark in franchise history. Put another way, neither of the Hall of Fame quarterbacks that preceded Love in Green Bay ever took part in passing performances so impressive when adjusting for opponent and context.

None of this could have come together without a powerhouse performance from Matt LaFleur and his coaching staff. The Packers' headman and offensive play-caller pressed the right buttons throughout the night, negating most of Dallas' defensive strengths by relying on misdirection and Love's ability to throw around defenders and from unbalanced throwing positions. On the touchdown that put Green Bay over 40 points, tight end Luke Musgrave found himself so wide open that Cowboys' cheerleaders stood closer to him than any defender.

Considering the full context, the Packers have not produced an offensive performance this impressive since at least Aaron Rodgers' last MVP season and perhaps dating even further back. That doesn't seem like hyperbole at this point, but consider how wild that would have sounded back in October when the team went winless.

Green Bay has the makings of an offensive juggernaut just finding its footing, and most of the team's playmakers can't even rent a car yet.

The Joe Barry experience remains a rollercoaster that the Packers should eventually exit

JBH: After the Packers extended their lead to four possessions late in the first half, the Cowboys never seriously threatened again. However, the defense coordinated by Joe Barry still made for some uncomfortable moments on the Green Bay sideline.

While teams have blown second-half leads of 20 points or more in the NFL playoffs, those instances occur so rarely that they turn into memes. The Atlanta Falcons' loss after going up 28-3 remains the most famous, but the Houston Oilers managed to let the Buffalo Bills battle back from a 32-point deficit back in 1992.

Those thoughts probably didn't enter LaFleur's mind when he sent in Sean Clifford and the backups with just under six minutes left in regulation. While Dallas certainly had the horses to score some in garbage time, the chances of rallying from down 24 points appeared slim. Furthermore, LaFleur rightly assumed the Packers would have a short week to prepare for the San Francisco 49ers, and reducing the wear on his starters seemed reasonable given the stakes.

However, after the offense went three-and-out, the Cowboys quickly took advantage. They put together a four-play touchdown drive that took less than a minute and a half off the game clock. Just as importantly, their two-point attempt succeeded, cutting the Packers' lead to just two possessions.

At that point, LaFleur couldn't afford to risk leaving the backups in the contest. Not only did that decision create some confusion on the broadcast, it sent an unmistakable signal that he had little trust in Barry's defense to prevent another quick score.

In fairness, Barry's unit did have some highlights. Keisean Nixon and Preston Smith registered key third-down sacks to force punts or long fourth-down attempts. The defense also intercepted off Dak Prescott twice, first on an impressive effort by Jaire Alexander and then a pick-six from Darnell Savage.

But those flash plays can only cover up the musk for so long. Most teams don't generate leads of three possessions or more. When the Packers find themselves in a more contested game, how will Barry's defense respond?

While some might interpret Green Bay's playoff push and upset in Dallas to mean Barry has coached his way off the hot seat, it seems premature to jump to any such conclusion. The defense remains the team's most problematic unit, one that will see its most difficult test of the season next week.

The Packers tried to fire Mike McCarthy a second time

JBH: From the moment the Cowboys hired Mike McCarthy as their head coach, most in the NFL believed the marriage could end after just a few years. Despite McCarthy's résumé -- he won 61.8% of his regular-season games with the Packers and took home the Lombardi Trophy after the 2010 season -- a playoff disappointment or two always seemed capable of ending his Dallas tenure.

To McCarthy's credit, he showed progress every year with the Cowboys. A 6-10 first season gave way to back-to-back-to-back 12-win campaigns with the team lasting one round longer in the playoffs than the previous trip. Even some staff changes widely panned in the moment turned out well for McCarthy, including parting ways with inherited OC Kellen Moore before 2023 and taking over offensive play-calling duties. Following that decision, Dallas moved into the top 10 by offensive DVOA while Moore's new team, the Los Angeles Chargers, remained mired in the middle of the pack.

However, the Cowboys' upward trajectory changed drastically on Sunday. Not only did McCarthy's former team bury them under 48 points, they looked completely outclassed from start to finish. Dallas entered the game favored by a touchdown or more. By any reasonable standard, McCarthy's performance looks underwhelming.

At the time of this writing, the Cowboys haven't fired McCarthy and the possibility exists that he will last until next season. No Dallas head coach has posted a winning percentage over a four-year run as good or better than McCarthy's 62.7% since Jimmy Johnson in the early 1990s. That track record could weigh in McCarthy's favor as ownership decides his future.

Of course, ownership here means Jerry Jones, an often-reactionary decision-maker who described Sunday's loss as "one of the biggest surprises" of his football life. Jones declined comment when asked if McCarthy would hold onto his job, saying only that the two would meet Monday to discuss the game.

All of which suggests that McCarthy's Dallas tenure could end with a loss to the Packers. Should that come to pass, they will have effectively ended his employment twice in just over five years. That would represent a harsh ending for a coach with a championship ring and a street named in his honor, but it also illustrates why Green Bay made the right decision to end the McCarthy era in 2018.