The Packers' playoff outlook is murkier than most realize
The Packers will almost certainly make the playoffs this year, but their path and outcome remain difficult to predict with four games left.
Good morning!
Only four days have passed since the Green Bay Packers lost to the division-rival Detroit Lions in prime time. While only three points decided the game, the outcome created considerable separation in the NFC North and the conference as a whole.
Today's edition of The Leap details how last Thursday's game alters the Packers' outlook, the Jenga piece that the defense lost indefinitely, and the potential roster boost the team could get in the near future.
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The Packers' outlook is murky heading into the final stretch of the regular season
Jason B. Hirschhorn: At 9-4, the Packers will almost certainly earn a playoff berth. Entering Sunday, The Athletic's playoff model gave them a 96% chance of reaching the postseason, tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the eighth best odds in the NFL and ranked behind just three NFC contenders. Considering where Green Bay stood at this time last year, this marks a considerable improvement.
However, that concludes the good news for the Packers, at least based on the model. While they remain mathematically alive for the NFC North crown, their odds of securing the division fall under 1%. Necessarily, that means they have a minuscule chance of securing the first-round bye. That same model also gives Green Bay a 5% chance of winning the Super Bowl this season, a full tier down from the championship front-runners.
And while that model and others like it give the Packers an edge over their remaining opponents, the recent performances of those teams suggest a smaller margin for error. For example, next Sunday's game pits Green Bay against a Seattle Seahawks squad that slumped badly in October and early November, and those results continue to weigh them down in metrics like DVOA (18th overall entering Week 14). However, Seattle's defense has found its footing since a Week 10 bye, helping the team win four games in a row, including three over divisional opponents.
Likewise, the Packers' Week 15 matchup with the New Orleans Saints looks more competitive now than it did before the coaching change a month ago. Interim headman Darren Rizzi might not ultimately land the full-time job, but he has the Saints playing far more competently than his predecessor Dennis Allen did for any sustained stretch.
The Packers could lose both of those games and still qualify for the playoffs, but their path would look a lot rockier than anyone could have imagined before Thanksgiving.
But what if the Packers win both of those games? At that point, their record would improve to 11-4, their best mark through 15 games since 2021 and their first season of double-digit wins in the Jordan Love era. It would also set up Green Bay in a critical matchup with the Minnesota Vikings that might ultimately determine who gets the No. 5 seed. While the Vikings currently have an 11-2 record as well as the head-to-head advantage, they also have to play the aforementioned Seahawks and a Week 18 matchup with the Lions. Another loss is possible to likely, though it only matters if the Packers can take care of business in the regular season's penultimate week.
All of which underscores the Packers' lack of clarity entering Week 14. Two weeks from now, they could look like the team nobody wants to draw in the playoffs. Just as conceivably, they could look like an also-ran at that point.
These next two games will reveal much about Green Bay's future.
What was the Packers' most impactful development of the past week?
JBH: Javon Bullard's injury.
Granted, the Packers saw multiple starters in the secondary go down this week or, in the case of Jaire Alexander, not suit up in the first place. And of those players, one could reasonably argue that Bullard ranks last in terms of caliber.
Even so, Bullard represents a critical Jenga piece for the secondary. For much of the season, the Packers have deployed Bullard as the slot defender with Evan Williams playing safety and Keisean Nixon lining up along the boundary. Even when Williams went down last Thursday, Bullard remained in the slot with Zayne Anderson backfilling at safety.
However, once Bullard left the game with an ankle injury, the Packers ran out of alternatives. They shifted Nixon into the slot and, as a consequence, the Lions immediately began attacking the middle of the field more consistently and effectively. In particular, tight end Sam LaPorta had his biggest play of the day just a few minutes later.
At this time, it remains unclear if Bullard will miss any games and, if so, how many. Reporters spotted the rookie defensive back wearing a walking boot and using crutches late Thursday night, a seemingly ominous sign but one that doesn't always prove predictive. If Bullard cannot play next week, the Packers will either have to play Nixon inside again or trot out an even less experienced slot corner. Alexander's health and availability could also factor into these decisions.
The Packers can afford for some of their starting defensive backs to sit out next weekend. But the current situation threatens to break the secondary. Green Bay has to hope the extra few days of rest make all the difference.
Keep an eye on …
JBH: … Luke Musgrave over the next two weeks. The second-year tight end has spent over a month on injured reserve as he recovers from ankle surgery. Though the Packers never provided a clear timetable for a return, head coach Matt LaFleur hinted that Musgrave could come back in 2024.
"We'll be looking forward to getting him back, hopefully sooner than later," LaFleur said on Nov. 13.
And even after missing much of the season, Musgrave could provide a meaningful boost to Green Bay's offense. While he doesn't have the sheer power of Tucker Kraft nor that degree of blocking acumen, Musgrave can stretch the field in a way that none of the Packers' other tight ends can. Given the amount of tight ends they've deployed of late -- Ben Sims has played double-digit offensive snaps in every game since Week 5 and John FitzPatrick has even become a consistent feature -- shifting some of that work to the more talented Musgrave could have a multiplying effect.
"Luke definitely brings an element that's hard to replicate," LaFleur said.