The Leap's final 53-man roster projections and big questions entering Week 1

With final cuts just around the corner, The Leap reveals their final projections for the Packers' initial 53-man roster.

Good Morning!

NFL teams have until 3 p.m. CT on Aug. 30 to reduce their roster to 53 players, but some began that process early. Already, the Green Bay Packers have waived veteran linebacker and special-teamer Ty Summers and could make more moves in advance of the larger wave of cuts that will take place on Tuesday.

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Note: Player order does not necessarily reflect starters and backups. Those projected to begin the regular season on the physically unable to perform list do not count against the 53-man roster limit. Also, injured players that make the initial roster could land on injured reserve soon thereafter. This is because the rules prevent teams from placing them on IR before final cuts and still maintain the ability to return them to the active roster at a later date.

Jason's projection (Aug. 28, 2022)

Offense - 25 players

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love
RB: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Patrick Taylor
WR: Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Sammy Watkins, Amari Rodgers, Juwann Winfree
TE: Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis, Josiah Deguara, Tyler Davis
OL: David Bakhtiari, Jon Runyan Jr., Josh Myers, Royce Newman, Elgton Jenkins, Yosh Nijman, Sean Rhyan, Zach Tom, Jake Hanson

Defense - 25 players

DL: Kenny Clark, Jarran Reed, Devonte Wyatt, Dean Lowry, T.J. Slaton, Chris Slayton
OLB: Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Kingsley Enagbare, Jonathan Garvin, La'Darius Hamilton
ILB: De'Vondre Campbell, Quay Walker, Krys Barnes, Isaiah McDuffee
CB: Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, Rasul Douglas, Keisean Nixon, Shemar Jean-Charles
S: Adrian Amos, Darnell Savage Jr., Sean Davis, Dallin Leavitt, Innis Gaines

Specialists - 3 players

K: Mason Crosby
P: Pat O'Donnell
LS: Jack Coco

PUP: RB Kylin Hill

Peter's projection (Aug. 28, 2022)

Offense - 26 players

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love
RB: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Tyler Goodson
WR: Sammy Watkins, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Christian Watson, Amari Rodgers, Romeo Doubs, Juwann Winfree
TE: Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan, Josiah Deguara, Tyler Davis
OL: David Bakhtiari, Jon Runyan Jr., Josh Myers, Royce Newman, Yosh Nijman, Elgton Jenkins, Sean Rhyan, Zach Tom, Jake Hanson, Caleb Jones

Defense - 24 players

DL: Dean Lowry, Kenny Clark, Jarran Reed, Devonte Wyatt, T.J. Slaton
OLB: Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Kingsley Enagbare, Jonathan Garvin, Tipa Galeai
ILB: De'Vondre Campbell, Quay Walker, Isaiah McDuffee, Krys Barnes
CB: Jaire Alexander, Eric Stokes, Rasul Douglas, Keisean Nixon, Shemar Jean-Charles, Kioindre Thomas
S: Adrian Amos, Darnell Savage Jr., Sean Davis, Dallin Leavitt

Specialists - 3 players

K: Mason Crosby
P: Pat O'Donnell
LS: Jack Coco

PUP: RB Kylin Hill

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Jason's biggest question for Peter: The Packers haven't kept more offensive players than defenders on their initial 53-man roster in at least a decade. What makes you believe they'll do so in 2022?

Peter Bukowski: Because for the first time in a decade, there are more offensive questions than defensive ones. And when you’re a team searching a bit for some answers, throwing numbers at the problem can often be how teams approach putting together their roster.

Seven receivers will likely be as many as any team in the NFL keeps, but it’s not because they have seven world beaters. Just the opposite; they have a world of questions. But they brought in Sammy Watkins in free agency, drafted Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Amari Rodgers with high picks, all while still needing someone to play special teams. They need the numbers because they lack the elite players at the top, at least for now.

The same is true on the offensive line but only because of injury questions. David Bakhtiari isn’t all the way back and now Elgton Jenkins is mysteriously not practicing, though theoretically cleared. Keeping nine or even 10 offensive linemen would be as much a hedge on health as anything else.

More to the point though, the Packers defense is set in stone. They have 11 high-quality starters plus depth at defensive line and linebacker. Though they lack the same kind of depth at corner, safety, and outside linebacker, teams don’t need to need eight defensive linemen like offensive ones. Green Bay has five high-quality guys; they don’t need to flood the zone with mediocre roster fillers. That’s what the practice squad is for. Those bodies were more necessary when the team lacked the quality at the top.

Peter's biggest question for Jason: Why Patrick Taylor over Tyler Goodson as the third running back?

Jason B. Hirschhorn: If the Packers had Patrick Taylor and Tyler Goodson in competition for a featured offensive role, I would have favored the latter for a roster spot. Goodson has shown the skills most expected of him coming out of Iowa -- pass-catching skills, creativity with the ball in his hands -- but has also displayed better balance through contact than one might anticipate for a 5-foot-9, 197-pound back. If he falls on the wrong side of final cuts, I expect Green Bay to prioritize him for a spot on the practice squad.

However, around 90% of the snaps at running back will go to Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, leaving little work from scrimmage for anyone else at the position. Accordingly, the No. 3 back will see most of his snaps on special teams and in highly specified situations on offense. In both cases, the larger and more experienced Taylor has the edge.

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur didn't technically tip his hand on the matter during his press conferences during training camp and the preseason, but he did discuss the value of pass protection and the ability to contribute on special teams for running backs. Goodson shows the effort a coach would want on both, but his size puts him at a disadvantage in each area. Taylor will see regular work on special teams if he makes the roster and, if needed on offense, can more reliably keep the quarterback's jersey clean.

The expected return of Kylin Hill also plays a role here. While his skill set and physical tools differ somewhat from that of Goodson, the two backs would have similar roles on the team. Taylor offers a bit more variety which helps his cause. Also, should Dillon suffer an injury, Taylor has the best option for replicating his role (albeit without the same level of effectiveness).

In my view, Goodson has shown enough to merit a roster spot and under different circumstances would more likely survive final cuts. But Taylor fulfills the Packers' needs a little better, and that put him ahead in my projection.

In your view, what is the Packers' biggest personnel concern entering the season?

JBH: Assuming Elgton Jenkins can start at right tackle in Week 1 -- and given his unspecified DNP during Sunday's practice, that remains unclear -- I don't see any massive reasons for concern with the offensive line, at least not at the outset. The receiving corps too seems to have enough to keep the passing game operational so long as Aaron Rodgers stays upright. And while outside linebacker seemed barren for a stretch after starters Rashan Gary and Preston Smith, Kingsley Enagbare and La'Darius Hamilton have shown some juice during the preseason to downgrade the concern from a potential Chernobyl into a mere Three Mile Island.

At this stage, the depth at safety seems to present the most significant threat to the Packers' title hopes. Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage form a highly capable starting tandem, and the selection of athletic linebacker Quay Walker strongly suggests defensive coordinator Joe Barry will use three-safety packages less frequently than during 2021. Still, Savage has a tendency to pick up nagging injuries, including the hamstring strain he suffered on Family Night. While he hasn't sat out many games in previous years, the injuries have still cost him meaningful snaps and could limit him further in the future.

And the group behind Savage and Amos looks highly uncertain as final cuts loom. Vernon Scott, a 2020 seventh-round pick who emerged as the third safety midway through training camp, saw his path to the roster derailed by a shoulder injury. Perhaps the Packers bring him back at a later date, but he can't help the defense in the short run. Shawn Davis has flashed during the preseason, but the coaching staff clearly felt Scott had passed him by based on the practice reps following Savage's injury. The other safeties in competition for roster spots have primarily made their cases on special teams rather than defense.

If Savage and Amos stay healthy, the safety depth shouldn't manifest as a major problem from scrimmage. But assuming health at any position typically ends poorly, and the Packers don't have any proven options behind the starters at the moment.

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PB: I am still very much worried about the meltdown on the edge. Rashan Gary and Preston Smith pair together as a formidable duo, but they might only have one truly NFL-caliber player after them and he’s a rookie Day 3 pick (though he deserved to go on Day 2). An injury to Gary could neuter a pass rush that lacks juice even with Gary on the field.

Kenny Clark possesses excellent pass-rush ability for a nose tackle, but he’s not the slashing interior pass rusher that can swing games. He’s not getting into the QBs face in under two seconds; it’s more death by 1,000 cuts. And for as steady as Preston Smith is, he too isn’t the disruptor on his own that Gary can be.

They need another outside linebacker and I would feel much better about that room if they were able to find a veteran at final cuts or early in the season as they did with Whitney Mercilus last year. Gutekunst invested heavily along the interior rush, but Devonte Wyatt looks ill-equipped to handle a real role this year and Jarran Reed is historically an inconsistent, streaky pass rusher. They have a great Plan A, but essentially no Plan B. At a position that important, that’s suboptimal.