I know that each game is its own entity, and the Dolphins have highly skilled players, but right now I'm confused about the spread. Miami has five wins. Two are against the Patriots, who are 3-9; one against the Raiders, who are 2-9; one against the Jags, who are 2-9. They beat a mediocre Rams team. I guess anything can happen in a game but I'm not impressed with the Dolphin's wins.
I noted this in one of the other responses, but the Dolphins offense has played very well since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup. That's without Miami's ground game doing much of anything, and that could change quickly given the talent and coaching there.
Given everything, I think this game will be a tougher test for the Packers than last week's 49ers game.
Lions haven’t won a Thanksgiving game since 2016 and three of their losses have been to Chicago. Packers have a tough matchup but Tua can’t play in the cold and is fresh off a concussion. Pumped for tomorrow man, it’s gonna be great
Can’t wait for the game, but why are NFL analysts thinking this will be a shocker for the Packers? That we’re going to lose and get exposed as a ho-hum team.
I haven't noticed a consensus that the Dolphins will win on Thursday, but the game is considered more likely to be close than anything else from what I can ascertain.
And that's not without reason. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, the Dolphins have one of the top offenses in the NFL. Over that span, they're sitting at 0.080 EPA/play (ninth) which is just a small step below the Packers (0.093).
Over that same period, the Miami defense has also played pretty well (-0.029 EPA/play, 11th in the league). For context, that's just above Green Bay (-0.020). Negative is good for defenses.
Take that and factor in the current situations for each team. The Dolphins' pass catchers are as healthy as they've been in some time and the Packers' secondary probably won't have Jaire Alexander again. At the second level, the Dolphins will likely face a linebacking corps that won't have Edgerrin Cooper and Isaiah McDuffie. There will be opportunities there for Miami.
That doesn't mean the Dolphins should win, but it does mean they have a path to victory that doesn't require a lot of squinting.
Anyway, thanks for the question! Happy Thanksgiving!
I am very excited about the Thanksgiving game tomorrow night. I am however concerned about the Packers defense being able to defend Tua and the fast wide receivers for the Dolphins…..hoping that the Packers are beginning to peak…..
I think your concerns are reasonable. Even if the Packers had their full roster available, the Dolphins have found their rhythm on offense since Tua Tagovailoa returned. With Jaire Alexander trending to sit again and the linebacking corps probably playing without Edgerrin Cooper and Isaiah McDuffie, Miami will have opportunities to light up the scoreboard.
At the same time, the Packers offense probably isn't getting enough credit for how well it is playing. The underlying metrics suggest Green Bay has one of the top offenses in the league and it's getting better. At some point, the scoring output will more consistently match those metrics. The hardest task for either team on Thursday should be the Miami defense slowing down Green Bay's offense.
I know that each game is its own entity, and the Dolphins have highly skilled players, but right now I'm confused about the spread. Miami has five wins. Two are against the Patriots, who are 3-9; one against the Raiders, who are 2-9; one against the Jags, who are 2-9. They beat a mediocre Rams team. I guess anything can happen in a game but I'm not impressed with the Dolphin's wins.
I noted this in one of the other responses, but the Dolphins offense has played very well since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup. That's without Miami's ground game doing much of anything, and that could change quickly given the talent and coaching there.
Given everything, I think this game will be a tougher test for the Packers than last week's 49ers game.
Lions haven’t won a Thanksgiving game since 2016 and three of their losses have been to Chicago. Packers have a tough matchup but Tua can’t play in the cold and is fresh off a concussion. Pumped for tomorrow man, it’s gonna be great
But will there be a waxing gibbous moon? 🤔
Waning crescent, unfortunately. The stars do not align this year 😢
Can’t wait for the game, but why are NFL analysts thinking this will be a shocker for the Packers? That we’re going to lose and get exposed as a ho-hum team.
I haven't noticed a consensus that the Dolphins will win on Thursday, but the game is considered more likely to be close than anything else from what I can ascertain.
And that's not without reason. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, the Dolphins have one of the top offenses in the NFL. Over that span, they're sitting at 0.080 EPA/play (ninth) which is just a small step below the Packers (0.093).
Over that same period, the Miami defense has also played pretty well (-0.029 EPA/play, 11th in the league). For context, that's just above Green Bay (-0.020). Negative is good for defenses.
Take that and factor in the current situations for each team. The Dolphins' pass catchers are as healthy as they've been in some time and the Packers' secondary probably won't have Jaire Alexander again. At the second level, the Dolphins will likely face a linebacking corps that won't have Edgerrin Cooper and Isaiah McDuffie. There will be opportunities there for Miami.
That doesn't mean the Dolphins should win, but it does mean they have a path to victory that doesn't require a lot of squinting.
Anyway, thanks for the question! Happy Thanksgiving!
Good Morning,
I am very excited about the Thanksgiving game tomorrow night. I am however concerned about the Packers defense being able to defend Tua and the fast wide receivers for the Dolphins…..hoping that the Packers are beginning to peak…..
Kate from Ohio
Hi Kate,
I think your concerns are reasonable. Even if the Packers had their full roster available, the Dolphins have found their rhythm on offense since Tua Tagovailoa returned. With Jaire Alexander trending to sit again and the linebacking corps probably playing without Edgerrin Cooper and Isaiah McDuffie, Miami will have opportunities to light up the scoreboard.
At the same time, the Packers offense probably isn't getting enough credit for how well it is playing. The underlying metrics suggest Green Bay has one of the top offenses in the league and it's getting better. At some point, the scoring output will more consistently match those metrics. The hardest task for either team on Thursday should be the Miami defense slowing down Green Bay's offense.
Thanks for the comment. Happy Thanksgiving!