Signed, Sealed, Delivered: Aaron Rodgers is officially back with the Pack
The Packers and Aaron Rodgers finally signed a new deal that ties the reigning MVP to Green Bay for multiple seasons and likely the remainder of his career.
Good morning!
After weeks of speculation and reporting, the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers have finally signed an extension. The move ties the reigning MVP to the team for multiple seasons and effectively ends talk of him bolting for another team à la Tom Brady in 2020. While the new contract contains myriad details to unpack, it signals a crucial step in Green Bay's efforts to make another Super Bowl run.
Thank you for reading and supporting our coverage. You can also support our work by following us on Twitter:
Jason B. Hirschhorn: @by_JBH
Peter Bukowski: @Peter_Bukowski
The Leap: @TheLeapGB
Thanks for making The Leap a part of your day.
Aaron Rodgers signed a historic contract that got him paid at the top of the market while also drastically reducing his cap hit in the short term. What's your biggest takeaway from this deal?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: For obvious reasons, Aaron Rodgers' 2022 and 2023 salary-cap numbers will dominate the discussion around his new contract. However, the overall terms of the deal tacitly acknowledge that the four-time MVP plans to finish his career with the Packers.
Over the next two seasons, Rodgers' deal makes him effectively unmoveable from the Packers' perspective and provides no shortage of reasons for the quarterback to play through 2023 at a minimum. The 2024 season becomes a de facto player option that Rodgers can exercise if he wants to continue his career. In essence, Rodgers can decide when to walk away, at which point Green Bay will enter rebuilding mode.
Though that might not seem revelatory given how the relationship between Rodgers and the Packers improved over the past six months, this outcome seemed unlikely if not impossible to many just one year ago. Furthermore, in the direct aftermath of 2020's selection of Jordan Love, nearly everyone expected Green Bay to part ways with Rodgers at some point before the end of his career.
Now, barring something unforeseeable, Rodgers will finish his NFL career with just one team, rendering all those concerns as mere footnotes in his Hall of Fame story.
***
Peter Bukowski: The length. I was expecting a one-year deal that could be a two-year deal if Rodgers wanted. This is a real three years including 2022 and then “we’ll see.” We have to assume Rodgers assured the team he wanted to play all three given the way the contract is structured and even if he does, there’s a massive dead cap waiting for the Packers when it’s done.
That works for both Rodgers and the Packers because it means prying the Super Bowl window further open than it might otherwise have been. It gives Green Bay clarity of purpose and allows them to pour all their resources into that window, knowing the pain is definitely coming when it’s over.
The Packers will have to make a decision on Jordan Love's fifth-year option this time next offseason and with Rodgers in the fold, Love likely won't see the field until 2024 at the absolute earliest. What do they do with Love now?
JBH: The Packers don't have a ton of incentive to trade Jordan Love just for the sake of getting him off the roster. Such a move would net less than $100,000 in salary-cap space and, when factoring in the cost of a minimum-salary backup quarterback, produce a net negative cap impact. And though Green Bay's title hopes would go up in smoke should Rodgers suffer a major injury, Love could conceivably prove the difference between winning and losing a game or two should the four-time MVP miss a shorter period of time.
Still, that doesn't mean the Packers shouldn't trade Love if the right offer presents itself, and such a deal doesn't have to include a first-round pick. With Carson Wentz returning multiple Day 2 picks in a trade and Mitch Trubisky landing a multiyear deal with a chance to start, Love could hold intrigue for teams without a clear answer under center. And with the incoming rookie class offering minimal appeal at the quarterback position, the 23-year-old Love might represent a better wager to certain front offices than the available alternatives.
All of which means the Packers should wait out the market. Only one team can land Deshaun Watson, and many more have a void at the game's most important position. Even if some of those front offices have no interest in Love, perhaps a draft-day trade à la Josh Rosen to the Miami Dolphins could yield a strong return. Find the most desperate NFL general manager at his most stressful moment and see how much he'll offer for Love.
***
PB: Try to trade him ASAP. With an uninspiring draft class at the position and around eight teams looking for quarterback help this offseason, there will be a market for a former first-round pick. I don’t worry about backup quarterback value because this team has made it quite clear, Rodgers is better than any option Love can give them.
If Rodgers misses eight weeks, worrying about which non-Rodgers quarterback is out there probably doesn’t matter, and what’s more, the Packers can’t afford the luxury of giving up the chance to get cheap assets for a player they literally hope does not get a chance to play.
Now, they have to weigh that against the notion that more preseason snaps could increase his value, but four or five teams will use a top-50 pick on a quarterback and talk themselves into that guy. Love isn’t proven enough to fetch the Sam Bradford training camp deal if a contender loses its quarterback in camp, so the move is find a trade partner now … perhaps the team (the only team) to leak it doesn’t have interest in Love.
Za'Darius Smith and Billy Turner will hit the market and Marquez Valdes-Scantling isn't likely to return after the NFL went into a feeding frenzy on receivers. Which of those players will be most difficult to replace in Green Bay?
JBH: Za'Darius Smith might seem like the correct answer at first blush, but the Packers essentially went through the process of replacing him last season. Smith played just 18 snaps during the regular season, leaving Preston Smith and Rashan Gary to pick up the slack. Though far from an easy task, that duo rose to the challenge, with Gary delivering one of the better seasons from an edge defender in 2021. So while "Big Z" rates as the best player to depart Green Bay this offseason, the team has effectively accounted for his absence already.
That leaves Billy Turner and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Turner just delivered his best season, albeit one cut a little short by a knee injury. Quality offensive linemen always have value given the dearth of such players around the league, and the 30-year-old Turner should have a few good seasons left in the tank.
However, the Packers have some decent-to-strong replacement options already in house, and the 2022 NFL Draft could offer reinforcements. When Elgton Jenkins recovers from the torn ACL he suffered in November, he could fill Turner's shoes and form a top-shelf tackle tandem with David Bakhtiari. In the event Jenkins starts the season on the physically unable to perform list, Yosh Nijman can hold down the position. In either case, Green Bay shouldn't expect too many issues.
With that in mind, Valdes-Scantling emerges as the most difficult player to replace. Not only does the rest of the receiving corps lack his top-end speed, history suggests that most wideouts need time to build on-field chemistry with Rodgers. That holds especially true if Green Bay ultimately replaces Valdes-Scantling with a rookie. Perhaps a distressed asset like Will Fuller or Sammy Watkins can come in and have a more immediate impact, but neither has a great track record with availability.
So while no one should confuse Valdes-Scantling with a true field-tilting receiver, the Packers might not fill his role quite so easily.
***
PB: Za’Darius is the best player of the group at the most important singular position, but the Packers have two quality starters at the same position who can play 80% of the snaps if necessary. Billy Turner has been solid at a premium starting position, but much like Z, Green Bay can slide Elgton Jenkins in to that spot and flatly upgrade, plus feel comfortable if Yosh Nijman has to man that spot while Jenkins gets healthy.
It’s Valdes-Scantling. They need MVS’s speed in the worst way. With Allen Lazard set to be back on a restricted tender and Davante Adams either on the tag (unlikely) or on a long-term deal, Green Bay lacks that take-the-top-off receiver. There are plenty of options in the draft to go along with a handful in free agency including an old Packers flame Will Fuller, but players like him don’t grow on trees.
Speed is one of the easiest things in the league to find. We always hear you can’t teach it. But what you can’t seem to teach effectively enough is fast guys how to play receiver. There have been hundreds of 4.3 receivers who never became impact players because it takes more than that to be a useful NFL player. Fans loved to rag on MVS, but it won’t take long to miss him if the Packers have to rely on a rookie or an also-ran late-market free agent to fill that role.
Parting shots
JBH: With Rodgers watch finally over, the attention now turns to Davante Adams. The All-Pro wideout received the franchise tag earlier this offseason, but his camp has reportedly told the Packers that he won't play without a long-term commitment.
Additionally, NFL insiders such as Ian Rapoport have reported that the relationship between Adams and the Packers "is not in a great place" as the result of disagreements that arose from previous contract negotiations.
While these reports have elicited concerns from some corners, they don't mean a lot at this moment as it pertains to Adams playing for Green Bay in 2022. For starters, if he and the team don't reach an agreement before July 15, Adams cannot by rule sign a long-term extension with the Packers before next offseason. At that point, the receiver can either play on the tag despite earlier threats or sit out the season. Since the latter seems highly unlikely, Adams threats regarding the tag ring hallow. And Because nearly four months remain before that deadline, both sides have plenty of time to meet in the middle on terms.
Of course, that doesn't mean the lack of a multiyear deal at this stage doesn't affect the Packers. If Adams signed such an agreement before 3 p.m. CT today, that move along would almost certainly clear more than enough cap space to bring Green Bay in compliance before the start of the new league year. Because that doesn't seem likely to happen, the front office will instead have to make other moves -- probably cuts -- in order to slip under the threshold.
Even so, Adams and the Packers have little incentive to cede ground on March 16. By the time the real deadline arrives in July, that will change. Until then, most of what comes out about the negotiations represents posturing from one side or the other.
***
PB: Reports from Tuesday night suggest the Packers have cooled on Rasul Douglas negotiations. Did Russ Ball and Brian Gutekunst use the NFL version of the Prisoner’s Dilemma on those two? “Hey guys, we only have money for one of you. We’ll sign the guy who gives us the best deal.”
Probably not, because it would be easy enough for agents to talk about it, but in that situation, each agent would have to trust the other to be truthful and since they’re not actually bargaining, those conversations don’t have to be done in good faith.
It would be a savvy move for the Packers and might help explain why Campbell took a deal below the market value set by Foye Oluokun in Jacksonville ($15 million per year). For Campbell, a 2021 All-Pro, to take such a steep discount off that number was startling, though he traded it for a longer-term deal.
Considering the top players at the position make almost double what Campbell signed for, it raised my eyebrow at least.