Second half will show us if Jordan Love's turnover problems are due to injury

Jordan Love's interception numbers are way up from his debut campaign and it would be tempting to chalk that up to injury. Is it? We'll soon find out.

During the peak and the nadir of the Aaron Rodgers-Matt LaFleur partnership, questions dogged the Green Bay Packers offense: were they running that version of the scheme because it’s what Rodgers wanted or because LaFleur preferred it that way? Once Jordan Love got his opportunity—not to mention Rodgers has never been shy about talking about the things he likes and doesn’t like—LaFleur rendered that question moot, running among the most Shanahan-heavy offenses outside of … well, Shanahan himself.

But the team has moved subtly away from that this season as Love recovers from a mountain of maladies. With that change to a more shotgun-based passing game and fewer play-action opportunities has come an avalanche of turnovers. Once Love can get healthy, assuming he can, we’ll find out if this half-season was a blip of scheme thanks to physical limitation or a hint at what LaFleur and Love want this offense to be. With it, we’ll find out if the injuries were the reason for the turnovers or this new approach.

The interception change would be hard to miss. Love has tossed 10 of them in 6.5 games this season after misfiring on 11 all of his first season as an NFL starter. The underlying numbers aren’t quite “Lead the league in interceptions,” bad, but they show at a significant change in ball security.

Love currently ranks 7th worst in Pro Football Focus’ Turnover Worthy Play rate at 3.7%, up from 7th best among regular starters at 2.5% in 2023.

The cynical argument would be that Love was just never as good as the second half of last year. The problem with that is his turnover problems have been even worse this year than they were to start last year when he was a first-time NFL starter playing with a heap of uncertainty around him.

His health is the most logical explanation.

And it’s not just because he’s been worse though there is something intuitive about a quarterback with sterling skills as a play extender and second-reaction ability playing worse when he’s unable to move. No, the Packers are playing a different style of football, one leaning less into heavy personnel and under-center play-action, and it’s a likely result of Love’s modified mobility.

Love used play-action on 26.6% of dropbacks in 2023, a rate that has fallen to 21.6% this season. That’s below Aaron Rodgers who famously dislikes turning his back to the defense on run fakes.