Retaining Keisean Nixon signals Packers' expectations for kickoffs
While Keisean Nixon could again serve as the primary slot corner, the Packers' decision to retain him reveals what the team expects to happen with the kickoff rule.
Good morning!
Though the 2024 NFL Draft kicks off in exactly one month, the pace of the offseason has begun to slow from the free-agent frenzy of two weeks ago. The Green Bay Packers have still made some moves since those major expenditures, but the identity of their roster should remain mostly static between now and when league commissioner Roger Goodell starts to announce picks late next month.
But even if the Packers' personnel seems relatively static for now, some important changes have begun to transpire in the background. Today's edition of The Leap looks at how one of Green Bay's quieter moves signals a potentially seismic shift in the league as well as the bullet the team dodged over the weekend.
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Keisean Nixon's new contract says more about potential changes to kickoffs than his role on defense
Jason B. Hirschhorn: Though Keisean Nixon's three-year, $18 million contract didn't garner as many headlines as the Packers' recent deals for Xavier McKinney and Josh Jacobs, the retention of the two-time All-Pro returner and defensive back reveals important details about how the team sees the NFL landscape shifting this offseason.
Ostensibly, re-signing Nixon provides the Packers with a viable option at slot corner, and he could well end up in that role again in 2024. However, Nixon's primary value has come on kickoffs, a part of the game that rule changes have greatly diminished over the past decade. Just last year, over 70% of those plays resulted in touchbacks, essentially removing the potential for an exciting return. Barring a change, an even greater percentage of kickoffs will result in touchbacks moving forward.
But change might indeed come to the kickoff this offseason. The NFL owners will consider a rule proposal that would alter where the majority of the players would align, creating a "start line" and "setup zone" for everyone but kickers and returners. The concept has roots in the XFL (now UFL after a merger with the USFL) which deployed this approach to reduce injuries while incentivizing returns.
If the league adopts the new kickoff, games should see a remarkable uptick in returns. During the most recent XFL season, less than 10% of those plays resulted in touchbacks. The NFL has not experienced a rate that low in its modern era. Even if the return rate comes in at, say, 75%, that would represent an increase of more than 45 percentage points over 2023.
And that would make the kickoff returner extremely important. Nixon, who led the league in kickoff-return yardage in each of the last two seasons, could emerge as a weekly field tilter in this scenario. Additionally, his weaknesses as a returner -- taking the ball out from the back of the end zone -- become less of an issue in the new format.
By giving Nixon a multiyear deal, the Packers clearly believe the rule has a decent shot at receiving the 24 votes necessary to pass. Should that happen, that contract could end up a bargain.
Green Bay dodged a bullet with L'Jarius Sneed landing in Tennessee
JBH: In certain corners of the media and the Packers' fan base, the idea of the team adding Kansas City Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed gained some traction back in late February and early March. Sports radio in particular seemed to push the idea of acquiring another star corner to pair with Jaire Alexander for new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley's system. Multiple sports-talk hosts asked me about the possibility during guest appearances around that time.
As I explained during those radio hits, the idea had no basis in reality. The Packers did not have the appetite to trade a premium draft capital and hand out a lucrative multiyear deal to a cornerback with Alexander and his four-year, $84 million already on the books. Sneed, while an enticing player for any defense, simply would have commanded too much to justify given the team's other needs.
Of course, Sneed didn't land in Green Bay. This weekend, the Tennessee Titans traded a third-round pick for the star corner while agreeing to sign him to a four-year, $76 million deal. The contract falls right in line with the extension signed by Chicago Bears corner Jaylon Johnson earlier this month. All of which to say, the Packers wouldn't have realistically paid that price for Sneed and still made all the other moves from this offseason so far.
Even so, Green Bay dodged a bullet with how the Sneed transaction unfolded. At one point in the process, the Detroit Lions appeared to be the front-runners to land the cornerback via trade. Sneed could have provided them with a major lift in the back end, an area in which the defense struggled for much of 2023. While Sneed couldn't have solved every issue for Detroit, he would have likely given the secondary the largest boost in 2024 of any player the team could have acquired.
The Lions still added a starting corner since the start of the new league year, trading for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Carlton Davis. Davis, a veteran with a Super Bowl ring, does provide needed assistance in the defensive backfield. However, his play has never approached that of Sneed for an extended stretch.
The Packers will still presumably face Sneed this season when they travel to Tennessee for a road game. Still, avoiding a scenario where the team has to face Sneed twice a season for the foreseeable future counts as a win for Green Bay.