Rashan Gary's extension provides security for Packers' uncertain future
The Packers don't know what form their defense will take after 2023, but securing Rashan Gary on a long-term deal gives the unit a centerpiece and an identity.
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Though the Green Bay Packers' 2023 season seems effectively over, the organization took care of a major piece of its future. On Monday, the team signed star pass rusher Rashan Gary to a multiyear extension that will keep him in Green Bay for the foreseeable future.
"It's great to get that taken care of. Obviously, it's well deserved," Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said of Gary's new deal. "He's earned everything. Like I told the team, I'm a big believer in people that approach it the right way, that are talented, that come to work with the mindset and determination that he possesses. He's a tone setter. I'm really happy for him. I'm really happy for our organization. I think it's good to kind of put that to bed."
According to multiple accounts, Gary's extension ties him to the franchise through the 2027 season and carries a maximum value of $107 million with roughly $34.6 million guaranteed at signing. The Leap reported Monday morning that the four-year agreement actually adds $96 million in new money, giving his deal an average annual value of $24 million. As such, Gary becomes the highest-paid defender in Packers history.
"How long have I been waiting for this day? Obviously, it's a blessing," Gary said of signing a long-term extension. "I want to thank my higher power. I want to thank all my loved ones. Everybody knows the role that they play in my life. I want to thank this organization, everybody that believed in me. I'm just trying to get to work. That's me. I'm just trying to get to work."
Securing Gary to an extension alleviates a major piece of business. As a 2019 first-round pick, Gary would have hit free agency this March without a new deal or the application of the franchise or transition tag. On the open market, Gary could and likely would have landed one of the largest contracts in NFL history. As it stands, he looks like a relative bargain, just cracking the top five in average salary among edge defenders and a far cry from Nick Bosa's $34 million per year.
Gary's deal also marks the third time during Brian Gutekunst's GM tenure that the Packers have inked a major contract during the season. All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari signed a multiyear extension in November 2020 after previously breaking off negotiations. Likewise, Pro Bowl offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins finalized his current deal shortly before Christmas last year.
While Green Bay's leadership regularly signaled an interest in extending Gary, the ACL tear he suffered last year complicated negotiations. Every recovery from knee reconstruction plays out differently. Bakhtiari, who tore his ACL shortly after signing his extension, suffered multiple setbacks and has played just 13 games in the three years since. Conversely, Jenkins missed just two games the season following his injury and has avoided any such issues.
"I knew from the moment (of Gary's ACL tear), he was extremely disappointed in that moment," LaFleur said. "It means a lot to him and he knows he can help our football team. But from that time on, when it went down the next day, I could see he's a determined young man. It's not a shock to me and everybody here that sees him on a daily basis that he was able to recover from that."
Less than a full year removed from knee reconstruction, Gary has re-established himself as a force. According to Pro Football Focus, the pass rusher has a team-high 28 pressures despite not cracking 70% of defensive snaps in any game this season. Among qualified front-seven defenders, Gary's 25.2% pass-rush win rate exceeds everyone except Cleveland Browns' All-Pro Myles Garrett (26.3%). Gary has tilted the balance of games, including his three-sack performance against the New Orleans Saints in Week 3.
Even without the injury context, Gary looks like a superstar.
Certainly, Gary's strong return from the ACL tear helped him earn the massive payday, but his true value has nothing to do with 2023 at all. With the Packers on a bullet train to an offseason of major changes, they couldn't afford not to secure their defensive centerpiece.
Even by the low standards set by third-year defensive coordinator Joe Barry, the Packers defense has disappointed this season. The unit ranks in the bottom five by DVOA and, in a nod toward the dysfunction of previous years, allowed seven third-and-Barrys during Sunday's loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay has All-Pro talents at each level of the defense and has invested considerable resources into that side of the ball. By any reasonable standard, the results do not justify a fourth season for the embattled DC.
But the process of replacing Barry, whenever it begins in earnest, could take any number of turns. The Packers have largely used similar player archetypes along the defensive front since Dom Capers took over that side of the ball in 2009. That year, Green Bay shifted to a 3-4 base defense and, with it, a move to bigger edge defenders. No longer would lighter pass rushers like Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila set the edge. Instead, the likes of Clay Matthews III and Julius Peppers would serve in those roles.
The next DC might require a different type of edge defender. The San Francisco 49ers, one of the better defensive teams since the turn of the decade, employ a system largely dissimilar from Green Bay's and have maintained potency despite changing play-callers multiple times over that span. This approach has begun to spread to other NFL teams, most notably the New York Jets and Houston Texans. The Packers could realistically try to import those schemes this offseason.
The Packers could instead try to pull off the hire they wanted to make nearly three years ago. After moving on from inherited DC Mike Pettine, LaFleur initially tried to recruit then-Wisconsin Badgers defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard as his replacement. His system also differs from Barry's even if the body types look somewhat comparable. Leonhard opted to remain in Madison but, after the program passed him over for Luke Fickell last year, might have more interest if pursued again.
Alternatively, the Packers could hire one of the many Dennis Allen acolytes that have found success in the NFL of late. Coaches like the Detroit Lions' Aaron Glenn and the Atlanta Falcons' Ryan Nielsen have improved their respective teams' defenses since arriving, and both have given LaFleur trouble. Between their efforts and Allen's with the Saints, Green Bay could turn in that direction.
But whatever direction the Packers ultimately choose, Gary fits the bill. Need a strongside end to play Bosa's role in a 49ers-esque defense? Gary has the mass and athleticism. Looking for a pass-rushing "Sam" linebacker for a Wisconsin-like scheme? Gary has the requisite experience working in space. Want to slide a pass rusher between alignments to create matchup advantages? Gary has played along the interior and edge in both college and the NFL.
All of which underscores the importance of Gary's extension. Whatever path the Packers take, he has the skills, tools, and experience to navigate it.
"It just makes me hungrier, man," Gary said. "The organization that believed in me, trusted me, and sees my growth from when I came in and see the man that I'm still becoming and the player I'm working to become, for them to see that and bless me, man, I'm in awe."
-- Jason B. Hirschhorn is an award-winning sports journalist and Pro Football Writers of America member. Follow him on social media: @by_JBH on Twitter / @by_jbh on Instagram / @JBH@mastodon.social on Mastodon / @byjbh@bsky.social on Bluesky / @by_jbh on Threads