Putting together a perfect (reasonable) draft for the Green Bay Packers
We've arrived at draft week and the perfect blend of what we think could happen and the ideal scenario has taken shape. So, what does it look like exactly?
Good morning!
Draft week is here! I’ll be in Green Bay all week, bringing you the latest, so follow along on social media (links below).
As such, this will be the last post until the draft, barring breaking news. We’ll have a newsletter reacting to Round 1 and another analyzing Rounds 2nd and 3 before we return with a regular schedule.
Today’s free Monday will focus on what a perfect world draft looks like for Green Bay ... IN Green Bay.
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What does an ideal draft look like for the Green Bay Packers?
Peter Bukowski: Tetairoa McMillan in the first round, and I don’t care about the rest.
I’m only partially kidding. Aside from Travis Hunter (and maybe including him), there isn’t a player who would provide a higher upside of impact than T-Mac, and I’m including Abdul Carter in this equation. That doesn’t mean he’s more likely to hit that ceiling or that he’s a guarantee to fit seamlessly with the Packers, but he’s exactly what Jordan Love needs.
If the Packers had Carter against the Philadelphia Eagles in the playoffs, Green Bay probably still would have lost. If they’d had Travis Hunter playing cornerback with some receiver sprinkled in, the Super Bowl champs would have won. If McMillan played? Now we can have a conversation about an upset.
That’s precisely the kind of player the Packers need to move the needle for this team. Pro Football Focus analyst Trevor Sikkema said it on our Friday episode of Locked on Packers: Green Bay doesn’t need just any receiver. They don’t need some nice depth pieces; they need a dude.
There’s one no-doubt dude at receiver in this draft, and because he ran in the high 4.5s at a pro workout (where Brian Gutekunst was the only GM present), he’s suddenly not a lock top-10 pick.
It’s madness, and if Green Bay can take advantage, it would be a coup.
Plus, if I’m going to say, “I don’t really care about the rest,” that includes trading up for T-Mac. Sure, Green Bay could use bodies on the edge and cornerback, but they have short and medium-term plans for those spots (about the best any team can do). They don’t have a WR1 in the fridge at home.
They have to get one.
What if they can’t get McMillan?
PB: Then trade down with a team like the Kansas City Chiefs, who are reportedly in the market to move up for an offensive tackle, jumping the Houston Texans.
The 23rd pick is also where teams like the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants could come back into the first round for a quarterback, but it would be a similar scenario of trades.
A trade like Pick 23 and 87 for 31 and 63 would tilt to the Chiefs in terms of value, but in this draft, we expect a tepid market for trade-ups, which drives prices down. It makes sense for Green Bay to swap a late second for their late third, moving up 24 spots to drop back in the first while still likely picking a player they want.
31. Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa State
The only other true difference-making X-receiver in the draft class. And because of Green Bay’s preferences at the position for size, speed, and agility, they tend to draft players who profile that way. That’s not to say Luther Burden or Emeka Egbuka wouldn’t make sense here too, but neither are clean fits as the bucket-getting force the Packers offense requires.
I understand I am in the minority believing Higgins is straight up better than Burden or Egbuka as a prospect, but I also think he’s a better fit for Green Bay’s long-term build.
Higgins, as a backside ball winner and sometimes power slot, fits the Matt LaFleur archetype and fills a crucial role in this offense. And while he doesn’t play quite as fast as his 4.47 40 indicates, he wins consistently on vertical shots with his size and better-than-you’d-expect route running.
54. Landon Jackson, EDGE, Arkansas
Jackson has as much upside as any edge player in this draft class, which is why it’s unlikely he’ll be available for this pick at 54. In fact, I think it’s more likely he sneaks into the first round than makes it to the Packers in the second round, but with the top of the draft so loaded with defensive linemen, there could also end up being a supply-and-demand problem.
Ten or 12 defensive linemen could go in the top 40 picks. Nearly half the teams that pick above the Packers in Round 2 could have already taken one of those guys, pushing a true outlier athlete down the board to the Packers.
There isn’t a more Packers-y defensive lineman in this class than Jackson, but he’s currently 46 on Arif Hasan’s Wide Left consensus big board. He counts as “in range,” for an exercise like this.
I wrote about Jackson last week as a “backup plan,” pick for Mykel Williams, but Jackson is even more Packers-y. His length, elite burst, and size make him a high-upside player who was playing out of position way too much in college. The Packers could add another bruiser to their defensive end room, but Jackson flashes speed, power, and bend as a pass rusher. He’s already a terrific run defender, giving him a high floor and a chance to play right away in Green Bay.
63. T.J. Sanders, DT, South Carolina
Swapping 87 for 63 here helps Brian Gutekunst avoid the cliff. I like to say the draft is four rounds of real players and then a bunch of dart throws, but in truth, it’s only about ~50 high-level prospects in any given year. Moving up to potentially snag a player the Packers have in that kind of range would be ideal, even if it means giving up 87 in the process.
Would I love to game this so Notre Dame cornerback Benjamin Morrison falls magically to 63? Sure, but he’s 44 on the consensus board, and it’s only injury concerns that have him out of the first round.
Darien Porter Jr, Jonah Savaiinaea, and Alfred Collins all play potential need positions and fit the range, but I don’t love any of the value here.
If the Packers make the trade I proposed, presumably it would be because they have a second top-50 player in mind here. For me, the plan would be to try and double-dip with pass rush. There isn’t going to be a cornerback worth picking at either of these spots for the Packers, but there could be pass rushers. Sanders tested well enough, produced in the SEC, and could be a Devonte Wyatt replacement or insurance here.
He’s a top 50 type of talent, and the whole idea of the pick swap is hoping to snipe a guy like that here.