Packers' win in Minnesota impacts more than their playoff implications
The Packers beat the Vikings to set up a win-and-in game next week. However, Green Bay's offensive improvement and resilience will have implications extending beyond 2023.
Good morning!
Sunday unfolded as the Green Bay Packers hoped. Not only did they put the Minnesota Vikings out of their misery on Sunday Night Football, but the Seattle Seahawks' loss earlier in the day provided the necessary help to set up a win-and-in contest next week at Lambeau Field.
Today's edition of The Leap examines how the Packers rose to the challenge in a de facto elimination game, an important development in the secondary, and a note to file away regarding an important divisional opponent.
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Packers ride Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, and Bo Melton to victory
Jason B. Hirschhorn: The Packers received an uncharacteristically strong performance from their defense, and that deserves a mention given the tenuous nature of DC Joe Barry's job security. But the Packers won Sunday night thanks to the football heroics of quarterback Jordan Love, rookie wide receiver Jayden Reed, and practice-squader Bo Melton.
As expected, the Vikings threw a combination of heavy blitzes and simulated pressures at Love, hoping to confuse him as they did in Week 8. Love did find himself under pressure at various points, but the results looked far different. The young signal-caller didn't flinch while under threat, instead delivering the ball to the right receiver and keeping the offense marching down the field.
That meant some impressive passes thrown off platform, a Green Bay tradition dating back to 1992. Love had neither of his feet set on his first touchdown of the night, a 33-yarder to extend the Packers' lead to 10.
That paled in comparison to the "fadeaway jumper" Love pulled off on the Packers' next possession.
While young passers like Love should strive for more repeatable mechanics, it helps when a quarterback can pull off these types of throws. Love has the full array of arm angles and the ability to apply the right amount of touch, traits that convinced Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst to draft him in the first place.
But Love couldn't have delivered such an impressive performance without help, and those completions went to Reed and Melton. Before exiting the game with a chest injury, Reed caught six of his eight targets for 89 yards and two touchdowns, including one of the most impressive plays by any Green Bay player this season.
Reed also became the first Packers rookie since Eddie Lacy to record double-digit touchdowns and just the third in team history. Beyond the numbers, Reed constantly eluded the Vikings defenders, looking more like Justin Jefferson than the genuine article on Sunday.
And for as big as Melton stepped up for the Packers last week, he served as a key target in Minnesota. Again elevated from the practice squad to help fill in for the injured Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks, Melton led the offense in targets (nine) and receiving yards (105). Five of his six catches went for first downs or a score. Two went more than 20 yards. By any measure, a tremendously successful night.
The emergence of Melton could have immediate consequences for the roster. The Packers probably need to find a spot on the 53-man roster to prevent another team from snatching him, and a spot might soon open. Samori Toure, the second-year wideout who already saw his offensive role usurped by Melton, muffed a punt in the second half. Green Bay might well turn Toure's mistake into Melton's fortune.
The Packers offense has yet to play a game with its full arsenal of weapons, and it probably won't before the end of the regular season. And yet, despite battling inexperience, injuries, and myriad other issues, the unit has come together with an apparent franchise quarterback at the helm and a bevy of talented kids at the skill positions who've risen to the moment. No matter what happens in Week 18, Green Bay's leadership should feel extremely encouraged about the future.
The weekend provided the latest indication that the Packers will add a cornerback early in the 2024 NFL Draft
JBH: Eric Stokes didn't play a down on Sunday, but that fact made headlines in its own way. Despite not appearing on the injury report during the week, the Packers ruled him out with a hamstring injury on Saturday before officially moving him to injured reserve. With Jaire Alexander already missing Week 17 after Green Bay suspended him for conduct detrimental to the team, Stokes' absence left the secondary with Carrington Valentine, Corey Ballentine, and Keisean Nixon as the top available corners.
Stokes' sudden downgrade caps off a lost season for the third-year corner. After spending the opening seven weeks on the physically unable to perform list while recovering from the foot and knee injuries that ended his 2022, Stokes' return lasted four snaps before hamstring trouble forced him back to the sidelines. That injury led to his first stint on IR, remaining there until the Packers activated him prior to Week 15. Now back on IR, Stokes will not play again until 2024.
When Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst selected Stokes in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, he hoped that the Georgia product would eventually form an elite cornerback tandem with Alexander and provide the secondary with stability for the foreseeable future. Stokes appeared to deliver on that promise as a rookie, holding opponents to less than 50% completion and a passer rating of 71.3 when targeted. That performance helped the Packers overcome Alexander's 12-game absence due to a shoulder injury that year.
However, Stokes' follow-up campaign ran into coverage trouble long before injuries forced him off the field, and 2023 only saw those health matters worsen. Players have come back from worse -- Thomas Davis and Jason Verrett have gone through more season-ending surgeries than entire rosters only to return and play at a high level -- but those cases represent anomalies.
As such, the Packers have to approach Stokes much like they did with Derek Sherrod following the latter's broken leg and emergency surgery in 2011. Sherrod missed all of '12 while recovering and didn't receive medical clearance until the following year. At that point, Green Bay built their offensive line without the expectation that Sherrod could contribute, treating anything he provided as gravy.
Including Stokes, the Packers currently have only three cornerbacks under contract for next season. That list could shrink further if the weirdness stemming from Alexander's suspension bleeds into the offseason, though head coach Matt LaFleur said he expects the All-Pro to stay in Green Bay for 2024 and beyond. Regardless, the team cannot justify exercising the fifth-year option in Stokes' contract this offseason, essentially making 2024 a make-or-break year for the corner.
All of which suggests that the Packers will add a cornerback early in the upcoming draft. Armed with five picks in the first three rounds, Gutekunst will have to find a potential starter to bolster the group. That remains true even with Valentine showing promise during his 10 starts and counting. Green Bay simply cannot go into next season banking on Stokes making a full recovery, avoiding further injury, and returning to form.
File it away for later: Dan Campbell's overaggressive game management
JBH: The NFL's controversy machine activated a day earlier than normal this week. On Saturday, the Detroit Lions nearly toppled the Dallas Cowboys only for a procedural penalty to wipe out a go-ahead score in the final seconds of regulation.
A quick recap: The Lions, trailing 20-13 with less than a minute left, score a touchdown to cut Dallas' lead to one with the point-after attempt still to come. Rather than play for overtime, Detroit head coach Dan Campbell opted to attempt a two-point conversion with OC Ben Johnson dialing up a trick play designed to throw the ball to left tackle Taylor Decker. The gambit appeared to work as quarterback Jared Goff connected with Decker in the end zone moments later.
However, the officiating crew led by Brad Allen flagged the play for illegal touching. While an offensive lineman like Taylor Decker can declare himself eligible to catch a pass before the play, the Lions either declared the wrong player eligible or the refs confused the O-linemen. In either case, the defense and the officiating crew believed that backup Dan Skipper, not Decker, had the right to touch the football.
Somewhat understandably, Campbell's game management became a footnote to the larger officiating fiasco. Since arriving in Detroit three years ago, Campbell has largely gotten categorized with the analytically inclined coaches due to his aggression on fourth down. Since the start of 2021, no team has improved its win probability in those situations more frequently than Campbell's Lions.
However, Saturday's game provided perhaps the strongest evidence yet that Campbell simply leans toward aggression rather than finding edges via analytics. When Detroit wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown scored a touchdown with 23 seconds left, the Lions opted to go for two and the win rather than the extra point. Depending on the model one uses, that decision could register as a toss-up and therefore look justifiable regardless of the outcome.
However, each of the subsequent two-point attempts -- one from the 7-yard line and another from just inside the 4 -- hurt the Lions from a win-probability standpoint. Put more simply, putting the entire game on a single play that far from the goal line more likely results in a loss than a victory.
Detroit's loss doesn't have a direct impact on the Packers this season, but they can take lessons from Campbell moving forward. Whereas most of the coaches Green Bay faces will either adjust their fourth-down and post-touchdown decisions based on circumstance or lean toward the old-school, conservative approach, Campbell will likely continue to leave his foot on the gas no matter the consequence.
Armed with this information, the Packers can make better decisions in future matchups with Campbell. If you expect he'll go for it on fourth down, adjust your third-down defensive plan accordingly. Playing for a punt only makes sense if the Lions will actually attempt one, so dial up the pressure and try to keep the opposing offense deep behind the sticks even if it means risking a third-down conversion. The net of those outcomes will likely prove beneficial to Green Bay.
The Packers biggest need is a true short yardage back. Dillon clearly isn't as he is not quick enough to the hole. While CB or left tackle seem like the type of players usually targeted in the first round, the Packers should draft a RB high. I think Jones will be back and when he plays he is a difference maker. But they still need a tough, quick, hard running back for 3rd and short. If there is a first round back, take him. Otherwise take him with the Jets 2nd rounder. Then take one in the 4th and one in the 7th.