Packers will have to take the North into their own hands as rivals sneak out wins
After back-to-back dominating wins, Jordan Love and the Packers are playing their best ball of season, yet still find themselves in third place in the NFC North.
Good morning!
The Green Bay Packers played one of their most complete games of the season but can’t make up any ground in the NFC North because the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings each snuck past opponents over the weekend that probably should have beaten them. Green Bay has its first chance to right that wrong on Thursday in Detroit.
Today's edition of The Leap wonders if the Packers are peaking at the perfect time, and discusses the potential impact of two starters’ impending return, plus a new standard being set by Green Bay.
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The quiet star of the Packers' win was their general manager
Peter Bukowski: I guess the Packers can’t rely on any other NFC teams to take care of an NFC North team for them, even when it looks like they will.
The Chicago Bears blew a winnable game against the Lions so thoroughly and hilariously, that they fired the coach. On Thursday afternoon, the Bears ran just one play with roughly 35 seconds left on the clock and time expired without the chance to attempt the potential game-tying field goal. Just a few hours later, the Packers ran four plays with 22 seconds left in the first half including a run with eight seconds on the clock to set up a field goal with a mere three ticks left.
It’s the perfect encapsulation of why the Packers are 9-3 and the Bears still … you know the rest, but it also failed to deliver the Lions’ second loss of the season.
Meanwhile, the Vikings managed to win despite a 13-point deficit late in the third quarter thanks in part to a pair of fumbles and a dropped touchdown from ex-Packer Aaron Jones. A loss would have put the Vikings into a tie for second in the North with Minnesota holding the tiebreaker for the moment with a head-to-head victory.
As it stands, this is the most decorated division of the modern age with a 9-3 third-place team. It’s never happened this late into a season and despite all the Lions domination, they hold a scant two-game lead over the Packers with a titanic matchup looming in just a few days.
The Packers face all three division opponents one more time, plus a Monday night tilt with the Seahawks after the Lions game. The Vikings and Lions still have another go at each other, plus Detroit has a Bears rematch to go along with a Bills game two weeks from yesterday.
Since Week 3, the Vikings are +24 with seven one-score games. They’re 6-1 in those games and 7-1 on the year. They’re not the 2022 team in terms of being fraudulent. That squad will go down in history as an all-time fake. But lately, they’ve been a middling team, the kind of squad that earns the sixth seed and celebrates. Green Bay will have to beat them to make that middling dream a reality because God knows Kyler Murray and the Cardinals sure couldn’t.
Their close-game luck bill will come due soon enough.
Detroit enters Thursday with the flip side of luck on the injury front with five no-doubt defensive starters on IR along with four key reserves. Things have gotten so bleak at linebacker, that they’ve added another street free agent to the room, former Saint Kwon Alexander. Not to mention, Carlton Davis, Taylor Decker, and Emmanuel Mosely all missed the Bears game with injuries.
Aaron Glenn has held the Lions together with scotch tape this season, but there is a point of no return from injuries and if Detroit hasn’t crossed the line, they’re certainly in full view of it. Meanwhile, the Vikings have been living on a razor’s edge ever since they blew out the Texans.
For their part, Matt LaFleur’s team played its best back-to-back games of the season, aesthetically and subjectively, with Pro Football Focus touting them as the two best games the Packers have played all season. They’re finding their footing coming out of Thanksgiving, and they’re getting healthy at the right time.
How will the return of Jaire Alexander and Romeo Doubs impact Green Bay’s playoff push?
PB: With the Thursday-Thursday slate, the Packers went through practice on Sunday with Jaire Alexander and Romeo Doubs each in attendance. Alexander has missed the last two games with a nagging knee injury. Make that three of the last four since he hurt the knee against the Jaguars including the last Lions matchup and an aborted start against the Bears.
The Packers haven’t been a man-to-man team much this year, but it’s hard to imagine Alexander not being an upgrade over Keisean Nixon on a crucial fourth-down touchdown in the rain a few weeks ago. At least Jeff Hafley could have the option if Alexander could go this time around.
Ja has hardly been money this season, but his presence smashes the potential alternative for the Packers. He’s better than the Carrington Valentine/Eric Stokes rotation currently happening opposite Nixon.
Underline and bold that for a rematch with the Vikings, which reminds me, Alexander has yet to play a division game this season. It’s not outlandish to suggest the Packers handle the Bears in a more pronounced manner and/or sneak past the Lions or Vikings if Alexander could have gone.
Coverage busts helped the Vikings jump out to that big lead and the aforementioned Nixon touchdown came in one-on-one coverage with Amon-Ra St. Brown. Ben Johnson may have called an entirely different play with Alexander locked up against his best receiver.
But at least this for week, I’d make the case Romeo Doubs is the more important player because he’s been the Packers most reliable player as a route runner on third down when we know the Lions will want to play physical man coverage.
Doubs was on his way to a banner day against the 49ers before his concussion and the short week prevented him from making a go of it against the Miami Dolphins. Last Lions game, Jayden Reed and Christian Watson each out-targetted Doubs, but that may have been a direct result of Brian Branch’s ejection and wanting to attack the slot more.
It’s easy to envision Love leaning on Doubs on 3rd-and-8, knowing Aaron Glenn will try to heat him up and play man coverage behind it. That’s the connection Love trusts the most. Doubs practiced Sunday but LaFleur said the receiver remains in protocol. There’s a portion of the protocol that requires a ramp-up period and recovery from physical exertion. Practicing this early in the week though suggests he’s working through protocol and has a good chance to play.
Parting shot
PB: Remember all those years the season ended and you thought, “Man, the Packers really wilted against a more physical team to end the season,”?
Well … that still might happen, but Green Bay now plays a brand of football that has become the envy of the league.
