Packers drop interceptions, close game against division-rival Vikings
The Packers had multiple chances to put away the Vikings on Sunday but couldn't corral the interceptable passes Kirk Cousins gave them.
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The Green Bay Packers dropped a close one to the division-rival Minnesota Vikings, falling out of the lead for the NFC's top playoff seed in the process. However, the 34-31 final score represents just one of the major takeaways from the contest.
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What did you say about the Vikings two months ago and do you feel differently about them following their win over the Packers?
Jason B. Hirschhorn on Sept. 20: Largely because of factors beyond the Minnesota Vikings' control, their season still has some life remaining. At present, their division has a single win between the four teams — the Chicago Bears narrowly avoided a come-from-ahead defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday — and will finish Week 2 with no more than two victories. That puts the Vikings in striking distance of whichever team holds the NFC North lead come Tuesday morning.
JBH now: Since opening the season 0-2, the Vikings have demonstrated why no one should have dismissed them. Over the last four weeks, they have defeated two likely playoff teams (the Los Angeles Chargers and Packers) and fallen less than a touchdown short of toppling two others (the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens). That stretch has also seen Justin Jefferson take off into superstardom (21 catches for 392 yards and three touchdowns) and Kirk Cousins … avoid going full Kirkland Signature.
The Vikings have far more flaws than the top of the NFC, a notion underscored by Sunday's game. The Packers outgained them by nearly a yard and a half on a per-play basis. Still, Minnesota has avoided turnovers (plus-four over the past four weeks) and rounded into form on defense (No. 8 in DVOA entering Week 11). A Lombardi Trophy doesn't appear likely in the team's near future, but it can hold its own against more talented opponents.
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Peter Bukowski on Sept. 20: Yep [the Vikings' season is already over]. This Vikings squad didn’t look like a playoff team before the year and even a valiant effort against the Cardinals (arguably the fourth-best team in the NFC West) doesn’t change that. Also, they lost.
PB now: Wow, getting Old Takes Exposed by my own partner. Tough stuff. Minnesota’s defense has played much better than I expected it to over the balance of the season even if Sunday was a mess against the Packers. We thought the offense would be good but also were familiar with their penchant for shooting themselves in the foot.
Mike Zimmer would make questionable decisions late in the games. Kirk Cousins would biff it. And the Vikings would Vikings. They tried their damnedest on Sunday to do it again and the Packers just wouldn’t take yes for an answer. Still, coming into the game, I didn’t believe the 4-5 record accurately reflected the way this team had played. They were two or three plays from being 7-2. They looked much more like that team on Sunday than even the 5-5 team they left U.S. Bank Stadium as after the game.
Which players expected to come back from injury means the most to the Packers this season?
JBH: Even before Elgton Jenkins suffered a knee injury Sunday (more on that later), David Bakhtiari's absence loomed large over the Packers. For the entire 2021 season, the offense has operated in a significantly different manner than it had during last year's breakout performance, and the performance of the offensive line played the biggest role in that change. Without Bakhtiari locking down the blindside and Jenkins moving bodies along the interior, head coach and offensive play-caller Matt LaFleur didn't have the same menu of options available as he did in 2020.
Now, with Jenkins suddenly removed from the equation, the Packers need Bakhtiari more than ever to return the offensive line to some modicum of normalcy. While the All-Pro can't fix all of Green Bay's issues by himself, he would resolve its largest along the offensive line upon his return, whenever that time comes. Bakhtiari's whereabouts during practice will again garner significant attention this week.
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PB: The answer is probably David Bakhtiari, but the Packers beat some pretty good teams with Yosh Nijman out there at left tackle and all of a sudden the Green Bay passing attack looks unstoppable. Nijman won’t win any beauty contests for his pass protection, but he’s not the liability say Don Barclay was back in the day.
If we also assume Josh Myers is coming back, that will help the run game immensely as Lucas Patrick just isn’t a people-mover in the run game.
What we saw Sunday is the Packers lack the top-end talent to hang with these ultra-talented receiver groups. It didn’t show up against the Cardinals because they really only have one elite receiver. It didn’t show up against the Chiefs because they really only have one elite receiver. It didn’t show up against the Seahawks because despite having two outstanding receivers, they’re a complete and total shit show.
Against the Rams or Buccaneers or healthy Cowboys, the Packers can manufacture some protection with chips, screens, RPOs, and some good defense to stay balanced. They can’t handle multiple receivers being able to get whatever they want. With Jaire Alexander on the field, that’s one matchup you expect to win and that means being able to give a little more help to Eric Stokes if necessary, rather than worrying about both cornerbacks having issues 1-on-1.
What we're hearing/seeing
JBH: The Packers' offensive line, once arguably the premier unit in the league, finds itself in a bad spot. Do-everything lineman Elgton Jenkins left Sunday's game during the second half with an apparently serious knee injury, with the initial tests suggesting a torn ACL, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. Jenkins not only held down the blindside this season, but he had performed at an All-Pro level for the better part of two seasons.
But Green Bay's issues along the offensive line go deeper. While All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari came off the physically unable to perform list, he didn't practice at all this past week and might not return in the near future. After the game, Aaron Rodgers referred to Bakhtiari's status as "unknown," further underscoring the concerns about the latter's availability.
Barring some surprising news for either Jenkins or Bakhtiari, the Packers will go into a critical Week 12 matchup with the Los Angeles Rams with Yosh Nijman at left tackle. Nijman held up well enough during his brief run there earlier in the season, However, for a game Green Bay probably has to win in order to ultimately secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, the drop-off has to deeply worry head coach Matt LaFleur and his staff.
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PB: I’m not worried about the defense just yet and I’ll tell you why: quarterbacks aren’t going to carve this Packers team up in the face of pressure like Kirk Cousins did Sunday. Yes, that’s a bizarre phrase to type, just like it is to read, but that’s exactly what happened on Sunday.
Banking on making throws under pressure isn’t a reliable formula to win football games over any stretch of time. In fact, the Packers should have had two interceptions off pressure in this game, but Darnell Savage had one called back on a roughing the passer call for playing football, and another called back on review.
This is not a “live by the sword, die by the sword,” kind of thing. Beating the blitz with this kind of success is flukey. To call the first big play ball Cousins threw to Justin Jefferson a “duck” would be an insult to birds everywhere.
Creating pressure on 40.5% of dropbacks without Za’Darius Smith OR Rashan Gary, even against a shoddy offensive line, speaks to the tremendous depth and high-end talent the Packers possess in their front. If Savage makes just one of those plays, they win the game. The secondary didn’t play a clean game by any stretch, but given the pressure Green Bay applied, it would have been extremely difficult to replicate and that’s how we predict what happens moving forward.
Parting shots
JBH: All in all, the Packers caught some lucky breaks from Sunday's other games. The Dallas Cowboys fell to the Kansas City Chiefs, keeping them a full game behind Green Bay in the NFC playoff standings. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints continued their slide, falling by double digits to the Philadelphia Eagles. The only one major game within the conference didn't fall favorably for the Packers, as the Kyler Murray-less Arizona Cardinals overcame the quickly disintegrated Seattle Seahawks.
With only Monday Night Football left in Week 11, the Packers currently trail only the Cardinals for NFC supremacy. Neither team has a particularly easy schedule remaining, but Arizona has it worse, with games against the Rams, Cowboys, and Indianapolis Colts coming over a four-week span. Green Bay only needs to make up one game in order to return to the top of the conference thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Of course, that task looks a lot more difficult after Jenkins' injury, Bakhtiari's uncertain outlook, and no clear indication of when the Packers' cadre of injured stars will again see the field.
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PB: For whatever reason, the Packers can’t find any rhythm early on these games and for much of the season, a disjointed passing game bears much of the blame. Every time they find the sweet spot with the quick game and play-action, we wonder, “Well, now they’ll just keep doing that,” but they don’t.
So, I won’t pretend to believe that will happen after this game. We’ve reached, “I need to see it,” territory.
That said, another gem via Next Gen Stats: Aaron Rodgers went 16/19 for 303 yards and 2 touchdowns when playing what they deem “in rhythm,” which is throwing between 2.5 and 4 seconds. He averaged 3.1 seconds in time to throw this game and generated 23 pass EPA in that cohort, the sixth-best figure of the NGS era. A 75-yard touchdown boosts those figures, but even without them, Rodgers would have put up unbelievable production.
Rodgers admitted after the game, the script has not been kind to the Packers this year, which is an understatement, as they fall behind seemingly every week. If Green Bay could find ways to keep Rodgers in rhythm, including with help from Rodgers himself after he looked jumpy early on Sunday, the Packers offense might have unlocked something against a top-10 defense.