Packers transform season with win over defending champs

After a winless October seemed to remove the Packers from postseason contention, they now find themselves at the No. 7 position in the NFC playoff field.

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The Green Bay Packers pulled off their second major upset in front of a national audience over the last two weeks, toppling the defending-champion Kansas City Chiefs 27-19 on Sunday Night Football. The victory completes the transformation of a club that, after going winless in October, suddenly finds itself at the No. 7 spot in the NFC playoff field

Today's edition of The Leap breaks down the Packers' season-defining victory over the Chiefs without resorting to cheap, played-out Taylor Swift puns.

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The Packers' win over Kansas City cements their status as playoff contenders and a true threat in any given matchup

Jason B. Hirschhorn: In the most immediate sense, the game changes the Packers' perception nationally. Entering 2023, expectations for the team stayed relatively measured given the transition from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love, the overall youth movement on offense, and lingering concerns about the defense. Those beliefs probably didn't shift much externally when Green Bay opened the Year 2-1 and they certainly didn't improve after a 1-5 stretch in which the Packers' only win came against an opponent starting a backup quarterback.

After the last two weeks, no one credible could view the Packers as a pushover. The Thanksgiving upset over the Detroit Lions and Sunday's win over the Chiefs featured an offense that has reached cruising altitude without its only veteran playmaker (Aaron Jones) and All-Pro left tackle (David Bakhtiari). The unit no longer struggles to move the ball for long stretches, a fact made clear by the opening drive that ended with a touchdown to rookie tight end Ben Sims.

The Packers, who have won four of their last five games, still have flaws. Their defense hasn't played as well as their points allowed suggests and the special-teams units still make some easily avoidable mistakes each week. However, the overall on-field product looks genuinely playoff worthy, and now Green Bay has the inside track to a wild-card berth.

But that transformation couldn't have happened without improved play under center, and Love has more than pulled his own weight during the turnaround. In the three games preceding Sunday's tilt with the Chiefs, Love had delivered three consecutive career-best performances. For the Packers to emerge victorious against the Chiefs, they needed Love to play at his best.

Perhaps Sunday didn't improve on Love's spectacular outing last week in Detroit, but it can't rank far behind. Against Kansas City, the first-time starting quarterback showcased the poise and playmaking that helped the Packers topple the Lions while adding one of the most absurd throws from any quarterback this season. In a must-convert situation, Love connected with wideout Romeo Doubs, firing the ball just as the pass rush arrived and placing it between multiple defenders downfield.

Issues with deep-ball accuracy have plagued Love throughout 2023, and one game doesn't provide proof that he has turned around that element of his game. However, he always possessed the arm talent to make those throws, and he has completed them more consistently over the past two weeks. In the long term, a version of Love with a credible deep ball can make the Packers more than just a wild-card contender.

Still, arguably no one associated with the 2023 Packers had a bigger night than Matt LaFleur. The team's head coach has stacked a month's worth of strong performances as a game planner and offensive play-caller. Working with the NFL's youngest offensive personnel, LaFleur has found ways to scheme open receivers for Love while picking the right moments to call specials. He outcoached veteran defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, no easy feat given the circumstances.

Just over a month ago, LaFleur found himself in the crosshairs of both media and fans and didn't seem to have more than coaching clichés to offer for the Packers' poor play to that point. Now, with his team in the playoff picture and riding high, LaFleur has not only made that criticism look shortsighted, but he has also put himself in the Coach of the Year race. Even if other candidates have more compelling cases at the moment, the mere fact that Green Bay's headman has flipped the narrative around him serves to highlight the quality of his performance.

Christian Watson's injury casts a pall over victory

JBH: While the Packers came out of Sunday in better shape than their opponent, wide receiver Christian Watson's health has again become a matter of concern. The second-year pro left the game late, crumpling to the turf in obvious pain following a 10-yard gain. Watson required help exiting the field and did not return.

Officially, Watson suffered a hamstring injury, yet another soft-tissue problem for a player who has dealt with several in his young NFL career. The Packers didn't have much of an update regarding his status after the game.

"I don't know," LaFleur said when asked about the severity of Watson's injury. "We'll know more tomorrow. But certainly, it's unfortunate."

Even in a vacuum, Watson's hamstring trouble seems concerning. He missed the first three games of the season after tweaking his hamstring during practice and lost several games last season with similar issues. Generally, athletes who battle soft-tissue injuries like Watson has since entering the league continue to do so.

And Watson's availability has a multiplying effect on the Packers offense. While Love has rightfully garnered much of the credit for the Packers' offensive turnaround in recent weeks, Watson has played a major role in lifting the passing game. His 53-yard catch through contact that opened last week's tilt with the Lions sparked a touchdown drive. On Sunday, he had two touchdowns, including an acrobatic grab in the back of the end zone to extend Green Bay's lead to multiple possessions.

"I think his play has really taken off, and I think that's been a big catalyst for our offense," LaFleur said. "That touchdown catch he had versus the all-out pressure was phenomenal. Jordan did a great job of hanging in there and giving him a ball and he went up and made it. He's making some plays. I hope it's not too long. He's a dynamic player."

If Watson misses extended time, the Packers have other weapons to fill the void. Doubs and Jayden Reed can handle much of the heavy lifting while Dontayvion Wicks continues to impress as the coaches expand his role.

Still, Watson has size and speed that no one else on the roster possesses and can make plays none of his teammates can. The Packers offense still has a decent floor without him, but the ceiling does lower in his absence.

How many wins can the Packers add over final five weeks?

JBH: While the Packers have clawed their way back into playoff contention, they need to stack more wins to secure their spot in the tournament. Based on most models, they look like near locks to fully guaranteed to qualify with four or more victories over that stretch. Even three W's could get the job done if they come against the right teams.

Fortunately for the Packers, their upcoming schedule doesn't just feature a favorable list of opponents, it includes the most favorable slate for any club in the NFL.

(via @JuMosq)

After knocking off the Lions and Chiefs in consecutive outings and winning four games in five weeks, the Packers should enter each of their remaining matchups as the betting favorite. Consider too that three of their upcoming opponents will either start a backup quarterback (New York Giants with Tommy DeVito, Minnesota Vikings with Joshua Dobbs) or have an interim head coach (Carolina Panthers with Chris Tabor). That leaves only the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, two franchises on pace for top-10 draft picks.

Will the Packers win the rest of their games and finish the season with an 11-6 record? Probably not. The NFL rarely unfolds as expected and Green Bay remains a young squad capable of delivering a stinker against an inferior squad.

Even so, the Packers should win the majority of those contests. That wouldn't guarantee them a spot in the playoffs, but it would come pretty close.