Packers stumble into best version of secondary in blowout win
The Packers might have found the best configuration of their secondary on Sunday. Meanwhile, the offense finally hit its stride just in time for a critical stretch of games.
Good morning!
On Sunday, the Green Bay Packers blew out the Arizona Cardinals in their most complete effort so far in the 2024 season. The offense executed nearly everything it tried while the defense didn't so much as give up a third-down conversion until just before halftime. Against an opponent that just toppled the reigning NFC champions a week ago, Green Bay looked like the far superior team from start to finish.
Today's edition of The Leap details what the Packers discovered about their young secondary, the offense finding its stride just in time for a critical stretch of the season, and the lone major concern that came out of Sunday's game.
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When Evan Williams plays, good things happen for Packers defense
Jason B. Hirschhorn: The Packers have experimented with their secondary in several ways this season. Over the last six weeks, Keisean Nixon has played more snaps at boundary corner (123) than he did over his first two seasons in Green Bay combined (69). Meanwhile, Javon Bullard has worked extensively at both safety (153) and the slot (104), and Eric Stokes and Carrington Valentine have spent multiple games rotating at the cornerback spot opposite of Jaire Alexander.
However, until the past two weeks, Evan Williams barely factored into those decisions. The rookie defensive back saw just 34 total defensive snaps over the first four games, seeing most of his action on special teams. That flipped in Week 5 as Williams made his first official start while playing 78 snaps on defense, mostly at safety. The outing proved to be a success as he broke up multiple passes and gave up little in coverage (three catches for 19 yards on six targets).
Williams carried over the momentum from his starting debut into Sunday's game against the Cardinals. He once again saw extensive action, playing just under 70% of the defensive snaps. His presence allowed Bullard to line up primarily in the slot (35 of his 54 snaps on defense) which, in turn, gave the Packers the flexibility to leave Nixon as one of the boundary corners for another week.
Not only did Williams affect the complexion of the defense, but his play altered the outcome of the game. In a game that saw the Packers generate three turnovers, none had a higher degree of difficulty than Williams' perfect "Peanut punch" on Greg Dortch, forcing a fumble that Alexander recovered seconds later.
Sunday's performance furthers an argument that has gathered steam since Williams flashed during training camp. While he might not rate as the Packers' best defensive back or even their top rookie defender, he seems to unlock the best version of the secondary. By playing at a more-than-commendable level at safety, he frees Bullard to work in the slot where he played his best football in college. That meaningfully increases Green Bay's depth at boundary corner where no one has staked a claim to the starting job opposite Alexander.
And the more Williams plays, the more he should improve. The same holds true for fellow rookie Bullard who, prior to Williams' increased workload of the past two games, saw less work at arguably his best position and fewer snaps overall. The two can and will make mistakes when given more exposure, but they will also likely perform better late in the season as a result of more work now.
The Packers might continue to rotate through configurations of the secondary in the coming weeks. However, they will probably have a difficult time finding a better combination than the one that dominated the Cardinals on Sunday with Williams featured prominently. He has passed every test so far, and the results look extremely encouraging for Green Bay.
Jordan Love and the offense hit its stride just in time for critical stretch
JBH: For a handful of reasons, the Packers couldn't quite find their footing on offense over the first five weeks of 2024. In the opener, the playing surface had more in common with an ice rink than a football field, leading to near-constant slipping and a lack of consistent ball movement for everyone involved. The MCL injury Jordan Love suffered at the end of that contest effectively required the team to create bespoke, highly unusual game plans that deviated greatly from the offense's core concepts. Then when Love returned, he clearly still needed some time to shake off the rust and for his knee to fully heal.
Sunday might have finally seen the first real look at what Green Bay's offense can accomplish when it has most of its key components and limited external factors forcing the unit to play lefthanded. Jordan Love might have to play with a brace over his affected knee for the rest of the year, but he looked spry for the first time since the injury. Not only did he create opportunities with his legs, but his passing looked as consistent as it did during his world-beating run during the second half of 2023. And when those two elements came together, it resulted in one of the most spectacular plays by any team in Week 6.
Perhaps the offensive explosion stemmed from a favorable matchup. The Cardinals defense ranked at or near the bottom of multiple significant metrics entering the week. The unit also had to play nearly 37 of the 60 minutes of regulation and undoubtedly battled exhaustion by the third quarter.
But even if those factors provide context for the outcome, they don't negate how well the Packers offense performed and all the different areas in which it succeeded. Love looked sharp throughout the game and his lone major "mistake" -- and interception late in the first half -- occurred only because wide receiver Bo Melton slipped on an out route. Those sorts of situations happen from time to time, but it doesn't truly reflect on the quarterback who appears to have found his groove.
This comes at a particularly good time for the Packers. The upcoming slate of games provides an opportunity to push past much of the potential NFC playoff field and create separation from their rivals within the division. Between now and the end of Week 12, Green Bay will play two of the NFL's top teams (the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions, both at Lambeau Field), face the currently 4-2 Chicago Bears for the first time, and get their shot at the San Francisco 49ers. A road matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars also takes place two Sundays from now.
If the Packers can go 4-1 during that stretch -- an entirely realistic goal if the offense can play anywhere close to the level it reached against the Cardinals and the defense builds on its recent gains -- they could get the inside track for the No. 1 seed. The Texans won't have their top wideout next week, the Lions just lost star defensive end Aidan Hutchinson for the season, and the 49ers look like a MASH unit. Both remain difficult outs, but Green Bay has the necessary firepower to emerge victorious. The other two matchups feature opponents who will almost certainly enter the contests as underdogs.
When Love went down, the Packers moved heaven and earth to salvage their season. Now that they find themselves on the other side of that process with a 4-2 record, they have to take advantage of the opportunity.
The Packers cannot risk their season on their current kicking situation
JBH: When the Packers claimed Brayden Narveson off waivers in September, they expressed a willingness to give the rookie kicker plenty of time to work through problems. So far, the team has stayed true to its promise with Narveson retaining his job despite multiple misses against the Minnesota Vikings and several misfires in the weeks preceding that performance.
However, for Narveson to justify his place on the roster, he has to demonstrate improvement. Nobody expects him or any kicker to nail every attempt, but he has to improve on the kicks that nearly everyone at his position makes with extreme regularity.
Sunday revealed that Narveson hasn't made those strides. He missed wide right on a 44-yarder late in the third quarter, a type of kick the Packers need him to hit nearly every time. He has now misfired on five field-goal attempts under 50 yards through six weeks, the most misses in that range of any kicker this season.
Narveson didn't hurt the Packers in Week 6, but that says more about the play of the offense and defense than it does about him. How many times can Green Bay expect to get away with such an unreliable kicker the rest of the way, especially over the aforementioned critical stretch of games coming up next?
The list of available kickers doesn't look much better than it did two weeks ago, but that could soon change. The New York Giants will likely cut Greg Joseph once Graham Gano comes off IR. Joseph "won" the Packers' kicking job coming out of training camp before the team released him to make room for Narveson, and he entered Week 6 with a field-goal conversion rate of 88.9%. Joseph did miss both of his field-goal attempts on Sunday, but he still probably represents an upgrade over Narveson at this point. Alternatively, Green Bay could wait for the 49ers to cut Matthew Wright once Jake Moody's ankle heals.
Neither option represents a panacea for the Packers' kicking problems, but they have to try something. Other veterans could enter the conversation as well. But one way or another, Green Bay can't just give Narveson more time and expect different results.