Packers stay busy while waiting on Rodgers, make major decision about combine
The Packers have restructured multiple contracts to create cap space and have reportedly decided not to send their coaches to the upcoming NFL Scouting Combine.
Good morning!
Aaron Rodgers has returned from isolation. But, at least officially, the Green Bay Packers remain in the dark about his intentions for 2023. Even so, the team hasn't exactly stayed idle, taking care of some important pieces of business while adjusting plans for the upcoming NFL Scouting Combine.
Today's edition of The Leap examines the Packers' recent contract decisions and whether more will follow as well as their process for working the combine.
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After restructuring the contracts of Jaire Alexander and Preston Smith, what other big moves do the Packers have left this offseason (not counting anything related to Aaron Rodgers)?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: As of this moment, the Packers have carved out enough space to get under the 2023 salary cap when it goes into effect on March 15. According to Over The Cap, the team currently has about $6.43 million in cap space after restructuring the contracts for Jaire Alexander and Preston Smith this past week. That means that, technically, Green Bay can stand pat between now and the start of free agency without making any other adjustments.
However, the situation involves a few more complexities. The Packers will require several million in order to sign their draft class later this year, limiting the funds available for other business like re-signing return man Keisean Nixon or tendering restricted free agent Yosh Nijman. Though the front office doesn't necessarily plan to make a big acquisition in free agency or the trade market, the team will need more cap space in order to fill out the roster.
With that in mind, the Packers have three major cards to play outside of anything involving Rodgers. The first two involve a further restructuring of existing deals. Both David Bakhtiari and Kenny Clark have large roster bonuses due in the coming months -- $9.5 million and $2 million, respectively -- that Green Bay can convert into signing bonuses and spread out over multiple seasons to reduce the 2023 cap numbers. The team can squeeze those figures even further by adding void years. Those decisions will presumably come within the next month or so.
The other, perhaps bigger move involves Rashan Gary. The 2019 first-round pick has one season left on his rookie contract, the fifth-year option with a cost of almost $11 million. The Packers could extend Gary and reduce his cap hold for the upcoming season, a move that creates both short- and long-term benefits.
However, with Gary coming off a torn ACL, the Packers might prefer to wait and see how his recovery progresses. General manager Brian Gutekunst took a similar approach last year with Elgton Jenkins, waiting until December to finalize an extension. Like Jenkins, the 25-year-old Gary has demonstrated All-Pro-caliber play and has no reason to expect an overly difficult recovery from a torn ACL. Still, Green Bay might wait him out even if it means a more difficult cap situation for 2023.
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Peter Bukowski: Don’t rule out an extension for Kenny Clark. He already has a pair of void years at the end of his contract which can be absorbed as a framework for a new deal. His $13 million and $15 million in base salaries provide ample opportunity to spread out if the Packers wanted to get aggressive with conversions to bonuses.
The other option is to extend Clark who will be 31 in 2026, the second of his two voided seasons, and give the team even more runway to move money around. This is the beauty of having good players to pay. If the Packers had no one, these would be easy decisions, guys would walk at the end of their rookie deals, and Green Bay would always have salary-cap space.
This does raise an interesting, and potentially concerning fact about the roster, however: Who will land the next big contract after Gary likely gets his?
Brian Gutekunst hopes the answer is Jordan Love, but that’s a guess at best for the moment. Who are the other young Packers pieces on rookie contracts who have shown to be long-term cornerstones? Two studs from the 2019 draft class will have new deals, but there’s not much else there. This season could well be the last for both A.J. Dillon and Josiah Deguara. And no one drafted in the past two seasons will need a contract any time soon but, more to the point, has anyone already earned one?
Does it matter that Matt LaFleur and the Packers coaching staff plan to skip the NFL Scouting Combine?
JBH: Two things can be true at the same time: The Packers have joined a league-wide trend of keeping their coaches at home for the NFL Scouting Combine and the decision will affect how the team makes decisions on draft day.
The same dynamics that led Green Bay's decision have impacted other clubs across the league. Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer highlighted those factors well over the weekend:
The Packers don't need to have their coaches in Indianapolis to receive input from them during the draft process, but that doesn't mean the outcome won't change as a result. Teams have good reasons for sending scouts to view prospects in person rather than just on tape. Some aspects of a player's game or physical skill set become more evident up when viewed up close compared to on tape. For decades, coaches took part in that process during the combine and pro days, but the NFL has moved away from that of late. In some cases, position coaches might only meet a prospect at a private workout.
As a consequence of this shift, scouts and personnel executives will enjoy increased influence over draft decisions than before. Coaches can and will still push for certain players, but they won't hold as much sway as before.
Whether this nets out to a positive or negative depends on the team. However, the notion that this won't alter the process doesn't hold much water.
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PB: I’m going the other way on this, not from Jason but on the premise of the question: This helps. Or at least I would bet front offices believe it helps. Coaches getting involved this early muddies the waters on the evaluations. The scouts know the guys already. In Indy, coaches get the chance to meet the players, look them in the eye, and ask them absurd questions. Who cares? How does that help?
The great Greg Cosell is fond of saying everything intangible manifests itself on the field or it doesn’t matter. In other words, it’s probably on the tape.
There are still enough old-school coaches—you don’t have to be old in order to be old school—that care about things like the cut of a player’s jib that it complicates evaluations. Sometimes, that means believing Jalen Hurts will work his tail off to maximize his physical tools based on a meeting. But in other situations, it means talking yourself into Tim Tebow because man, he’s charismatic in the room.
To me, this is a good thing. Coaches and front-office people don’t do the same job nor do they have the same goals. Sure, both want to win, but the real aim is to stay employed. For scouts and evaluators, that can mean betting on the upside, whereas coaches want to win games now.
They’re often at cross-purposes.
It makes more sense for the coaches to enter the process late in the game when the people who professionally project talent narrow the field a bit. As Jason notes, coaches will still end up pounding the table for their guy, but at least the table is being set by the evaluators. Coaches deserve a say and some are better than others are identifying talent, or spotting the types of players they can best utilize, but their time is better spent working on the coaching side during the offseason, not watching tape of college players.
A report from NFL Network's Tom Pelissero suggests that the Rams will "very likely" trade All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey this offseason. How concerned should the Packers feel about him landing in the NFC North and which of their division rivals appears best positioned to acquire him?
JBH:Â Gauging the market for outlier players always presents difficulty, but Jalen Ramsey has gone through this process before. In 2019, the Jacksonville Jaguars traded him at the peak of his value -- an All-Pro nod under his belt and a season and a half left on his rookie deal -- for two first-round picks and a fourth-round selection. Now 28 years old, Ramsey remains one of the most imposing athletes at the cornerback position but his compensation has caught up to his play. The difference in age and contract will affect his appeal, as a consequence, alter his market.
As for potential suitors within the NFC North, the list doesn't seem long. The Minnesota Vikings lack the cap space to retain their top free agents let alone add one of the highest-paid corners in the game. The Detroit Lions have the requisite funds and would benefit from Ramsey's services, but they might prefer to invest in a cheaper, younger corner given their youth movement (no player currently on their roster has reached 30). That leaves the Chicago Bears, the team with the most cap space by a wide margin (over $98 million), a No. 1 overall pick that can and likely will turn into multiple premium selections, and a dearth of defensive field-tilters.
At this stage of Ramsey's career, he will probably resist going to a rebuilding team. The Lions nearly reached the playoffs last season and appear close to breaking through, so perhaps that could sell him on Detroit. Additionally, the front office has considerable ties to the Rams -- general manager Brad Holmes worked in Los Angeles when Ramsey's trade from Jacksonville transpired -- and presumably has some relationship with the superstar corner. Perhaps striking a deal using the later of the Lions' two first-round picks would make sense, though they could grab a top prospect like Devon Witherspoon and exit the cornerback market.
As for Chicago, the Bears will have a much harder time selling Ramsey on their ability to compete. Coming off a season in which they finished with the worst record in the league, adding any single non-QB won't singlehandedly boost them into the playoffs. At the same time, no team in the NFL appears better positioned to make Ramsey the highest-paid player at his position again -- something he could realistically demand as part of a trade -- which could alleviate some trepidation on his part.
All of which to say, the Lions and Bears don't seem like the most obvious landing spots for Ramsey, at least at this time. For that reason, the Packers shouldn't feel overly concerned about the All-Pro corner landing with a division rival.
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PB: Let’s say Aaron Rodgers comes back to the Packers and the receiver trade market runs dry. DeAndre Hopkins stays in Arizona and Brandin Cooks wants to play somewhere warm or he’s retiring. Let’s just say.
Why wouldn’t the Packers want to get involved? Joe Barry coached a defense with Ramsey on it even if he didn’t coach Ramsey directly. He knows the scheme. Play him at safety. Move Rasul Douglas to safety and let Ramsey play the boundary. Mix and match who plays the nickel with Jaire based on matchups.
Sure, it would take some figuring with the money, but you’re trying to win a championship so who cares? That’s next year’s problem.
In all seriousness (I’m only like 63% joking about the Ramsey thing), given the current state of NFC contenders, there isn’t anyone to be particularly nervous about, though Ramsey fits well in places like Detroit. The better fits for Ramsey fall in the AFC where Miami, Tennessee, Kansas City, Las Vegas, and others will want to get in on the arms race against the top quarterbacks in football who nearly all currently reside in their conference.