Packers handle Washington for sixth straight win, but bigger challenge arrives Thursday
The Packers have now won six straight games after stumbling out of the gate, but their biggest challenge of the season awaits them Thursday.
Good morning!
The Green Bay Packers won their sixth consecutive game, knocking off the Washington Football Team 24-10 on Sunday. The victory extends the Packers' lead in the NFC North while helping them keep pace with the top teams in the conference.
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The Packers defense finally got a stop in the red zone. Where do you think the unit stands now?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: Four consecutive stops in the red zone will alter the narrative around the Packers defense, but it doesn't erase the unit's weaknesses by itself. The first of the four would have gone down as Green Bay's 16th straight touchdown allowed in the red zone if not for Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke unnecessarily diving before the goal line, giving himself up by rule. The others count from an evaluation standpoint, though the sample size remains small.
Coming out of Week 7, the defense remains somewhat of an unknown. The Packers have shown promise defending the pass, but they still allow at least one major breakdown on the back end each week. Meanwhile, the run defense has looked rough outside of a two-game stretch — Week 3 against the San Francisco 49ers and Week 4 against the Pittsburgh Steelers — in which the game state required the opposing offenses to throw heavily. While the unit's outlook doesn't seem as dire as it once did, Green Bay still doesn't know whether it can hold up when the offense doesn't score 24-plus points.
Ultimately, the Packers won't know what their defense can provide until it faces a top-shelf quarterback. The team's schedule so far has provided much of a challenge in terms of opposing signal-callers, with only Joe Burrow looking like a standout through seven weeks. A bigger test arrives in just a few days, as Green Bay will travel to the desert for a Thursday Night Football matchup with MVP contender Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. How the Packers defense holds up against Murray will go a long way toward establishing whether the unit has actually turned the corner.
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Peter Bukowski: About the same. In 2019, the Packers were seventh in red-zone DVOA thanks to a slew of turnovers, particularly some momentous ones against the Bears and Vikings. A year later, without much change in the defense overall (15th in DVOA in 2019 to 17th in 2020), the red zone defense cratered to 28th.
These things are flukey, a reflection of small sample sizes. Green Bay busted coverages in the red zone it wasn’t busting in the field of play. Pressures that were turning into incompletions at the 40 were turning into scramble drill touchdowns.
Regression, like winter, was coming (Is that still a relevant reference? You know what, don’t answer that).
The Packers defense won’t keep shutting offenses out in the red zone as they did Sunday when they forced Washington to take the collar on four shots, but that’s regression back up to the average. So what does the process show us?
Chandon Sullivan getting an interception or Adrian Amos breaking up a pass on fourth down are lucky plays, but they’re also reflective of what’s going on in the rest of the field of play: the coverage has been excellent this season, sticky and consistent. If they just play in the red zone the way they’ve played in other parts of the field, they’ll be fine.
Also, Sullivan gave the ball to his dad the first time he got to see Sully play, so that has to be good karma.
What's the biggest challenge facing the Packers on a short week?
JBH: Determining whether All-Pro left tackle should return to play the Cardinals or whether to give him another week of practice. While Bakhtiari seems physically ready to go nearly 10 months removed from the ACL tear that ended his 2020 season, he has just three practices under his belt this year and probably won't have the opportunity for another fully padded session this week with a Thursday night game looming. That quirk of the schedule, along with the team's notoriously conservative medical staff, shroud Bakhtiari's return date in mystery.
The upside of Bakhtiari playing is clear. The Packers would upgrade two spots along the offensive line, with current left tackle Elgton Jenkins likely kicking inside to guard. That version of the offensive line would not only provide superior pass protection, but it would also improve the interior run blocking, an issue at points for Green Bay this season.
But the risk might outweigh the reward. The Packers began the regular season with Bakhtiari on the physically unable to perform list for a reason: to protect him and his still-recovering knee from a premature return. Bakhtiari looked spry during training camp by all accounts, but the medical staff nonetheless deemed him unfit to play when Week 1 arrived. The subsequent six weeks went well enough for Bakhtiari to begin practicing, but that doesn't necessarily mean he can perform up to his standards after just a handful of practices. Giving him more time will help him shake off the rust and reduce the chance of reinjury.
Any reasonable scenario where the Packers win Super Bowl LVI involves Bakhtiari manning the blindside. The offense hasn't matched 2020's heights in the All-Pro's absence, but it has done enough to help the team win six games in a row. The long-term goals probably outweigh the short-term gains, even if that makes Thursday's tilt in Arizona more challenging.
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PB: Creating a plan for Kyler Murray. It’s not that Kliff Kingsbury is some master architect. In fact, just the opposite. His offense often boils down to, “Hey Kyler, go make a play,” but he’s making them.
Taylor Heinicke torched the Packers for 95 yards on 10 scrambles on Sunday thanks to a heavy man coverage approach, but against someone like Kyler, that’s a more difficult ask because he’s exponentially more explosive. Forcing him to make tight-window throws into man coverage feels like the best option, but not when he’s flaming linebackers in the open field.
Murray’s legs aren’t killing teams this year the way they have in the past. In fact, he has 17 combined rushing yards the last three weeks, but he’s more than capable of exploiting open space. The reason he hasn’t though is just as troubling: he’s destroying teams through the air, leading the league in completion percentage above expectation. Only Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady have a better EPA/play.
He’s the second-highest graded quarterback by PFF when facing pressure, but has faced the 5th lowest pressure rate among regular starters. Mush rush? Blitz him with defensive backs? What’s the plan? The Packers are going to have to figure it out in a hurry.
What we're hearing/seeing
JBH: While Rodgers has played at a high level overall this season, one facet of his game has regressed markedly from last year's MVP campaign: his downfield passing. In 2020, Rodgers completed just over half of his attempts of 10 or more air yards and boasted a 23:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio on those throws. At the conclusion of Week 6 in 2021, he had already matched last year's pick total on such passes, completed only 48.5% of them.
The difference didn't just manifest in the numbers either. Rodgers stalled multiple drives over the first six weeks of 2021 with misses on deep shots that he made with regularity less than 12 months earlier. While the Packers have yet to lose a game because of the issue, it doesn't require much imagination to see that occurring later in the season.
However, for at least one week, Rodgers appears to have corrected course. The reigning MVP displayed a surgeon's precision on passes of at least 10 yards against Washington, completing nearly all of them.
While the Packers' receivers had little trouble finding open space, Rodgers fit a few of those throws into tight windows, including a seemingly impossible completion to Randall Cobb early in the second quarter.
By itself, Sunday's performance doesn't mean Rodgers has reclaimed his pinpoint accuracy on deeper throws. Still, his performance against Washington provides the first possible sign that he has ironed out the issue. If it proves to be the beginning of a trend for Rodgers, the Packers have the necessary firepower to defeat any team in the league.
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PB: Rashan Gary. That’s it. That’s the tweet. PFF tallied 7 pressures for Gary on Sunday against Washington, a week after posting 7 against the Bears. He came into Sunday’s contest second in the league in quarterback hits and if the numbers hold for now (assuming no stat corrections), he’ll likely leave the week tied for first.
The sack numbers aren’t gaudy, but he’s consistently impacting the game as a run defender and pass rusher. He flashed the speed against Washington, but we’ve seen him bull rush tackles into the quarterback’s lap or knife inside for a TFL in the run game.
In the last two weeks alone, he has more pressures than Preston Smith has all season in a resurgent year for Smith. His 14 pressures in that span nearly match reigning Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt’s season total (18), an impressive feat even with Watt missing some time.
Za’Darius Smith created so much chaos for opponents in two years for the Packers and most assumed, myself included, the Packers defense needed him to reach its ceiling. More pass rush is better, but the elevated role for Gary allowed him to flourish, to find new ways to impact the game, taking on some of Z’s responsibilities as a stand-up chaos agent.
Having Gary plus the Smith Brothers would be ideal, but the injury to Za’Darius may well have unlocked Gary in a way his previous part-time role couldn’t.
Parting shots
JBH: De'Vondre Campbell has received several plaudits in this space since the regular season began. The veteran has quickly established himself as a stabilizing presence at inside linebacker, a position that has caused the Packers considerable frustration since Desmond Bishop last laced up cleats for the franchise. By any objective measure, Campbell ranks as one of the best values acquired by Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst.
Prior to Week 7, Campbell's biggest plays came in pass coverage. On Sunday, he added some field-tilting plays against the run to his résumé.
During the Packers' first goal-line stand of the season, Campbell forced a fumble on Heinicke's QB sneak. Any play that saves a touchdown deserves applause, but how Campbell punched out the ball merits a second look. Heinicke dives to his right with the ball under his right arm, a full body away from Campbell. Yet somehow, the Green Bay linebacker manages to force his left hand through and dislodge the ball before Heinicke reached paydirt.
Later the same drive, Campbell forced another fumble, this time from running back Antonio Gibson. Packers safety Darnell Savage appeared to recover the loose ball, though the officials overturned the takeaway on review. Regardless, the play short-circuited Washington's offense, resulting in a turnover on downs a few plays later.
The Packers defense entered the season with a cadre of playmakers, a group that did not seem to include Campbell. But while many of the biggest names have missed time with injury, Campbell has stepped up to become a true field-tiler. Even if the defense returns to full health, the veteran linebacker will rank as one of the unit's most integral components.
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PB: Jason brought up Rodgers’ downfield accuracy, but the underneath timing and rhythm have brought the overall surgical Rodgers package back. Against the Bears, Rodgers completed every pass he attempted under 10 yards, the first quarterback to do that in six years.
He’s getting the ball to his outlets in a hurry and letting them try to pick up yardage after the catch. Against defenses trying to put a lid on the offense, the Packers will have to stay patient as they have in recent weeks.
We saw the patience pay off with a beautiful receiver screen to Allen Lazard on an RPO in which Tonyan sealed the end defender, allowing Lazard to rumble for the first down. They’re treating those plays like runs: the three and four-yard gains are fine, but they think they’ll hit enough 10-15-yard gains to make calling those looks efficient.
Eventually, they’ll pull out the bubble-go and score on someone crashing the bubbles. Frankly, I’d like to see more opportunities to call those plays with players like Amari Rodgers, Randall Cobb, and Aaron Jones getting the ball from the slot of those looks.
Rodgers regained the ball replacement he’d temporarily lost in the late McCarthy and era Matt LaFleur era where these short throws were not only automatic, but he’d lead the receiver in the perfect direction to create yards after the catch. That guy is back and giving this offense a chance to stay on time and in rhythm.
If the offense can be efficient and effective even without the big plays, while still finding ways to manufacture 2-3 of those a game as they did against Washington, they will be rolling again in no time.