Packers' free-agent splurge: What Green Bay's moves mean and what they don't

The Packers broke character and made multiple headline-grabbing moves to kick off the NFL's contract-negotiation window.

The first day of the NFL's contract-negotiation window proved to be a whirlwind for the Green Bay Packers. Not only did they bid adieu to multiple longtime starters and fan favorites, but they also added two of the biggest names in free agency. By any reasonable measure, Monday represented Green Bay's most substantial free-agency activity since the team added Adrian Amos, Preston Smith, Za'Darius Smith, and Billy Turner in 2019.

Naturally, the Packers' moves generated no shortage of reactions, not all of them tethered to reality. Because the team has historically avoided making waves during the early stages of free agency, many do not know how to properly contextualize the moves. Here at The Leap, we aim to explain why Green Bay arrived at these decisions and what they mean for the club's short- and long-term outlook.

Xavier McKinney profiles as rare premier free agent who can justify expense

After battling through 2023 with Rudy Ford, Jonathan Owens, and Darnell Savage at safety, the Packers entered the offseason in need of significant help at the position. The NFL Scouting Combine only served to reinforce that notion as the incoming rookies collectively underperformed. All signs pointed to Green Bay diving into the veteran market for solutions.

But even with that context, the Packers' acquisition of Xavier McKinney carries some shock value. The former New York Giants standout entered the NFL's contract-negotiation window as the top available safety. The terms of his agreement -- $68 million over four years, an average value of $17 million -- reflect his place in the safety hierarchy. While McKinney's pay falls a notch below that of Derwin James and Minkah Fitzpatrick, he finds himself tiered with Jessie Bates III, the possible real-life corollary used during Green Bay's negotiations.

While McKinney carries a hefty price tag, the Packers had some extra flexibility entering the week. At any time, they could release All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari and free more than $20 million in cap space, more than enough to account for a large free-agent contract. As noted in The Leap's Monday column, the timing of Bakhtiari's release would likely indicate whether the team had a blockbuster move coming down the pike. Just hours after the news broke about the veteran tackle's departure, reports of the McKinney acquisition surfaced.

While the Packers haven't historically spent top-of-the-market money at safety, McKinney's background explains how he became an outlier. Despite playing out his full rookie contract, McKinney begins the new league year as a 24-year-old, uncommonly young for an unrestricted free agent. That makes McKinney younger than a handful of prospects who will hear their names called during the upcoming draft.

Just as importantly, McKinney offers the traits that the Packers covet in a post safety.

"I want a guy who can erase things," new Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said at his introductory press conference. "We got to eliminate the explosive plays when we play this defense. So, if a run hits up the middle, this guy's got to come out of the middle field with his hair on fire. He's got to be able to get a guy down. I also want him to be a guy, when a ball carrier is wrapped up, he goes and he finishes off the pile. I want a guy who can go sideline to sideline and take the ball away.

"He's got to be a guy that can communicate, and he's got to be a guy who can get guys lined up and make some calls back there."

Green Bay's new safety checks every one of those boxes. During his breakout 2023 season, McKinney played primarily in centerfield while also seeing meaningful action in the slot and lined up in the box. Throughout it all, he held up extremely well in coverage, giving up just one play of 20 or more yards and limiting opposing quarterbacks to a 52.1 passer rating when targeted. According to Pro Football Focus, he finished with 94 tackles, 21 assists, and just seven misses in 17 games. McKinney also recorded three picks and forced two fumbles, all while wearing the green-dot communication helmet for the Giants.

Does that make McKinney worth the premium cost? Theoretically, the Packers could have signed multiple veteran safeties that, as a group, offer a comparable set of skills. Indeed, general manager Brian Gutekunst might still explore that market as former Jacksonville Jaguars defensive back Rayshawn Jenkins will reportedly meet with the team, and other free agents could take visits as well. But Hafley can only mask personnel deficiencies so much. McKinney has relatively few flaws for the position and, given his age and trajectory, Green Bay can expect to get his best seasons.

The Packers needed to land at least one field-tilting player for the middle of their defense. Signing McKinney, even at the high cost, makes sense in that context.

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