Packers end skid, upset Mike McCarthy's Cowboys in OT
Christian Watson's breakout performance and Aaron Rodgers' bounce-back effort lift the Packers over the Cowboys in a major upset.
Good morning!
The Green Bay Packers finally, mercifully put an end to their five-game losing streak by upsetting the Dallas Cowboys 31-28 in overtime. The game, which saw former Packers head coach Mike McCarthy make his return to Lambeau Field, served as a reminder that the NFL never lacks the ability to upend expectations.
Today's edition of The Leap looks at a breakout performance by one of the Packers' rookies, some key changes in multiple phases, and what impact Sunday's win might have on the rest of the season.
Thank you for reading and supporting our coverage. You can also support our work by following us on Twitter:
Jason B. Hirschhorn: @by_JBH
Peter Bukowski: @Peter_Bukowski
The Leap: @TheLeapGB
If you appreciate thoughtful, independent coverage of the Packers and NFL, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. Your support allows us to serve this community with the stories and reporting it deserves.
Thanks for making The Leap a part of your day.
What does Christian Watson's performance mean for the Packers moving forward this season?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: For over a month, Peter and I have discussed the need for a vertical threat for the Packers offense. Given the makeup of the receiving corps, that necessarily meant Christian Watson would have to step up in order for the passing game to get on track.
Back in September, my colleague wrote that the rookie wideout held the key to unlocking the offense, saying, "[t]he former North Dakota State standout can fly vertically too, winning consistently over the top."
A few weeks later, I wrote that Watson "could provide that vertical stretch. The rookie ran the 40-yard dash in a blazing 4.36 seconds during the NFL Scouting Combine, and that speed shows up on tape as well. On the Packers' first offensive play of the season, Watson burned three-time All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson on a go route. The play should have resulted in a 75-yard touchdown, but the wideout dropped the pass."
Against the Cowboys, Watson demonstrated the ability to get behind the defense without a schematic aide, showing a nuanced release on his 58-yard touchdown.
But the Packers don't have to ask their rookie wideout to simply beat his man. When they schemed Watson to a free release, his speed took care of the rest. Watson had a free release on his second touchdown via a bunch formation and another one on his third score via a receiver stack.
All of which underscores the variety of ways Watson can threaten defenses despite still learning the finer points of the position. While he doesn't provide the easy button of Davante Adams -- and nobody could have realistically expected that from him, especially as a rookie making the jump from the FCS level -- he can still make an impact when deployed in these particular ways.
Now, the Packers just need him to stay out of the injury report and not slow down on his routes.
***
Peter Bukowski: This was a beautiful day here at The Leap HQ as we’ve been touting the importance of Watson on the field for the Packers offense all season as Jason pointed out. But it’s also beautiful because there were easy questions about Watson’s readiness to contribute to this team.
Coming out of North Dakota State, scouts saw him as unpolished as a route runner and the hands questions dogged him as drops littered his collegiate tape. The speed played right away. It was obvious from Day 1, what looked like freakish speed against FCS opponents translated as freakish speed against … well, everyone.
And in a Matt LaFleur offense that can be enough because LaFleur uses the idea of space so well. The third touchdown was from a stacked alignment as Jason pointed out. There’s nothing special about the route other than it’s Watson, the fastest player on the field, running to green grass against a defender who will be trailing him because he’s not as fast and it’s really hard to cover a really fast player who is running to empty space.
He doesn’t consistently solve the third-and-8-plus issues the Packers will continue to have this season because he isn’t going to be a consistent middle-of-the-field killer the way Adams could be but the fourth-down play is instructive: If you give him one-on-one opportunities, it doesn’t matter the down and distance. Watson can win.
Which change was more overdue: taking Amari Rodgers off punt returns or moving Rudy Ford to safety and Darnell Savage to the slot?
JBH: Both of the changes qualify as overdue, but the one involving Amari Rodgers had a solution earlier. The Packers could have used Keisean Nixon on punt returns at literally any moment this season but waited until the third quarter of Sunday's game to finally pull the trigger. Rodgers has some appealing physical traits that could eventually translate on offense, but they simply haven't manifested on returns.
To put a finer point on it, Rodgers muffed punt that led to a Cowboys recovery marked the fourth such play of his season. No one in the league has more at this point in the year.
Perhaps Nixon has ball-security issues that kept the coaching staff from making the change sooner, but so what? It seems unlikely he would muff the ball as frequently as Rodgers and, even if he might, the front office has an entire sea of potential return men to consider in free agency. That exact scenario played out in regard to Rudy Ford earlier this week when the team claimed Johnathan Abram to handle some special-teams work. That move freed Ford to take on the safety role vacated by Darnell Savage's shift to the slot.
The same could happen with punt returns if Nixon can't hold onto the job. The Packers just took multiple months longer than necessary to get here.
***
PB: The Amari Rodgers decision was the easier lever to pull logistically. Just put someone else back there who can fair catch every punt and it would be a net benefit to the team. But the Ford/Savage swap could have reverberations for years, and that’s not hyperbole.
Savage’s contract put him in Green Bay for 2023, but his play suggested that would be the end, perhaps barreling toward a HaHa Clinton-Dix-esque end where he gets traded in October of next season. Instead, Savage appeared revitalized by the move even if he got beat in man coverage a few times. Everyone does. But he looked more engaged, played faster and more confidently, and may just have found a home as the team’s nickel corner beyond the ‘23 campaign.
The same can be said for Rudy Ford who played breakout football with two interceptions, one of them a critical red-zone pick to take points off the board and his second to set up a Packers touchdown. Those two turnovers led directly to 14 points for the Packers and took at least three off the board for the Cowboys. Ford, a core special-teams player, showed flashes of quality play in limited reps coming into Sunday, but against the Cowboys made his case to be a long-term starter at safety.
With Adrian Amos set to hit free agency this spring and Savage looking rejuvenated as the nickel, the Packers could swap Rasul Douglas for Amos (Douglas is under contract), sliding the injured Eric Stokes in back on the boundary.
Aesthetically, it would look very different, even if it was mostly all the same players and it may be the best way to use all those secondary players to the best of their abilities.
Does the Packers' upset win change how you think about their outlook in 2022?
JBH: No, it doesn't. The Packers did notch a win within the NFC to stay within spitting distance of the final wild-card spot, but the upcoming schedule offers no shortage of obstacles. First, they will have to take on the 6-3 Tennessee Titans on a short week before hitting the road for a matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles, the league's final undefeated team as of this writing.
And the schedule looks brutal down the stretch. The Packers will take on the 7-3 Miami Dolphins on the road before returning home for the final tilt with the 8-1 Minnesota Vikings. That leaves just three games in which Green Bay might enter as favorites.
Given the teams the Packers have already lost to also vying for a wild-card berth -- the New York Giants, the Washington Commanders, and, somehow, the Detroit Lions -- the path looks highly unfavorable. Rashan Gary isn't coming through that door. De'Vondre Campbell hasn't practiced since his knee injury. Injuries have thinned the depth in the secondary and receiving corps too. One upset over the Cowboys doesn't undo those developments.
And even if Green Bay somehow managed to sneak into the playoffs, no one would mistake the team for a true Super Bowl contender. That, after all, was the only goal that mattered in 2022.
***
PB: Don’t listen to Jason. At 4-6 with a defense that got crucial stops against a good offense in a have-to-have-it game, and an offense finding its identity as a run-heavy play-action shot team with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the Packers can still be scary.
After last week, I was writing off any chance of them winning a 31-28 shootout against a quality opponent. They’d shown no indication they had the firepower or the mental fortitude to get something like that done. Accomplishing that feat has to change the way we perceive this team moving forward.
To be sure, the road to the playoffs looks bleak. Blowing the Giants and Commanders games in particular look like brutal missed opportunities when they had double-digit leads in both of those contests. But this version of the Packers is one I didn’t think could still exist this season. Showing it should offer some additional assurances (even if it’s still a low amount) they can do it again because showing it one time is still more than showing it zero times.
Oh, and the Packers opened as -2 favorites at home against the Titans.
Parting shots
JBH: Former Indianapolis Colts head coach and current NFL analyst Tony Dungy shared an interesting take on McCarthy's decision to go for it on fourth down in overtime:
Now we know why Jeff Saturday landed the Colts job. He learned from the best!
***
PB: Three absolutely incredible stats from the game worth sharing:
According to the Fox broadcast, the Dallas Cowboys as an organization was 195-0 when leading by 14 heading into the fourth quarter. Make that 195-1.
The only other rookie receiver to score three touchdowns against the Cowboys is a fellow by the name of Randy Moss.
The last Packers rookie to catch three touchdowns was James Lofton.
The first down doesn’t happen if the second two aren’t also true. What an incredible, historic performance from Christian Watson.