Packers elite play-action game will test Seahawks defensive improvements

Seattle jettisoned two of its starting linebackers on the fly and immediately improved its defense, but will it be enough to stop the best play-action team in the NFL?

Mike McDonald had seen enough. On October 24th, the Seattle Seahawks traded offseason linebacker acquisition Jerome Baker for former L.A. Ram Ernest Jones IV. Just a few weeks later, on November 11th, the team waived its leading tackler, linebacker Tyrel Dodson. Together, they formed one of the NFL's least effective duos; since then, the defense has taken off. But on Sunday night, they’ll face the best team in the league at taking advantage of linebackers, a tensile test for the Seahawks, and an opportunity for Green Bay to show the rest of the NFC what is capable of in a big game.

The revamped Seahawks defense enters their Week 15 tilt with the Green Bay Packers 9th in defensive DVOA, just one spot ahead of Jeff Hafley’s group. In straight dropback situations, Seattle can pressure opponents, cover well with a versatile secondary, and they’re just good enough stopping the run.

Here’s the problem: they’re a car crash against play-action. McDonald’s group—and this is McDonald’s group because he came from Baltimore with a reputation for maximizing linebackers—have allowed the most touchdowns on play-action this season. They’re 4th-worst in EPA/play on throws off of run fakes. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed more yards. Only the Saints have allowed more yards after catch above expectation.

By contradistinction, the Packers boast the best play-action game in the NFL, leading the league in EPA/play when they press that easy button. Matt LaFleur employs one of the most diverse run games in the league, allowing him to dream up even more passes to throw faking those runs.

Here’s a terrific example of a concept LaFleur pioneered in the NFL this season. From 21 personnel with a pair of running backs flanking Jordan Love in shotgun, Josh Jacobs goes in motion before the snap. They run a counter lead concept with Elgton Jenkins pulling to kick out and Chris Brooks leading Jacobs through the hole.

This is not something commonly run by teams in the NFL, but it is common in Green Bay. What does LaFleur do next? He runs the play off the play: in this case a fake counter lead into Y-leak.