Packers draw 49ers rematch in divisional round

While the Packers enjoyed their hard-earned playoff bye, the 49ers upset the Cowboys to stamp their ticket to Lambeau Field.

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The Green Bay Packers enjoyed the fruit of their labor this weekend, sitting on the couches while the rest of the NFC playoff field battled for trips to the divisional round. Regardless of which team the Packers drew for next week's postseason tilt, they will enter healthier and well-rested while San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers each saw starters suffer injuries that could linger through the upcoming weekend. That alone makes the bye week Green Bay secured during the regular season invaluable.

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The Packers draw the 49ers in the divisional round. Your first reaction was …

Jason B. Hirschhorn: … the Packers defense has a major test ahead of it. While the Eagles entered the playoffs with the more statistically productive ground attack, no team in the postseason field possesses a more creative and dangerous running game than the 49ers. Head coach Kyle Shanahan centered the offense around the unique talents of Deebo Samuel, turning him loose as the do-everything weapon that finished the regular season first in yards per reception and second in yards per rush. That reconfiguration occurred after the Packers last saw the 49ers in Week 3, adding to the intrigue of this rematch in the divisional round.

At the same time, arguably no quarterback in the NFC playoff field has played as poorly down the stretch as Jimmy Garoppolo. Whether because of poor decision-making, an injury to his throwing thumb, or both, Garoppolo seems intent on throwing San Francisco out of games. His loose cannon cost the 49ers in Week 16 and nearly did so again each of the team's last two games. If the Packers can put the game on Garoppolo's shoulders, they can negate many of the advantages Shanahan generates through other aspects of the offense.

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Peter Bukowski: … this is going to be a loooooong week. Scar tissue runs deep for Packers fans from the 2019 NFC Championship Game and the beating the Packers took in the regular season that year as well. Let’s not forget the Packers won handily in San Francisco on a short week last year and controlled the game earlier this season before special teams and some highly questionable penalties.

The second thing I thought? Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers (also the rest of the team) could get a chance to avenge each of the last two conference title defeats with a date this week against the 49ers and the looming threat of the Buccaneers after that. If this duo wants to exorcise some demons, they may well get their shot.

With wild-card weekend almost over, which remaining NFC team presents the greatest challenge to the Packers?

JBH: While the 49ers have a strong case due to their strong defense and aforementioned running game, the Garoppolo factor weighs them down considerably. That leaves the Buccaneers as the NFC team that offers the greatest challenge to the Packers.

The argument goes beyond last year's NFC title game or Tom Brady. Tampa Bay can beat up the Packers' run defense on the ground with Leonard Fournette — he returned to practice this past week and expects to come off IR before the week of the conference championships — while also limiting Green Bay's high-powered offense with its star-laden defense. As for Brady, he doesn't always play well but he doesn't short-circuit as badly or frequently as Garoppolo, his former understudy.

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PB: The 49ers and this is as much about matchups and psychology as it is football. San Francisco thrashed Green Bay twice. The Buccaneers did the same last year. Will the specter of those games motivate this squad or amplify the pressure. Since those games, the Packers haven’t lost to Kyle Shanahan and Co. but this 49ers team wants to play the way you have to in order to beat the Packers: run the ball, control the clock, hit on some misdirection shot plays, and rush the QB with four on defense.

Tampa Bay’s run defense has been much leakier this season, although Lavonte David coming back would fix a big part of those issues. Still, this Buccaneers offense can’t be nearly as explosive as it was last year without Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown.

San Francisco brings one of the toughest matchup weapons in football with Deebo Samuel, a run-pass dominator in George Kittle, and one of the best play designers in football. That’s not to say they’re unbeatable. They lost seven games this season and the Packers were one of those losses. But they’re the scariest team both for football and more existential reasons.

Which player returning from injury will have the larger impact: Whitney Mercilus or Josh Myers?

JBH: I lean toward Josh Myers, though that comes with caveats. If the Packers opt to start Myers at center in the divisional round, they can move Lucas Patrick to right guard in place of rookie Royce Newman, who remains a work in progress. That would reinforce an O-line interior that has struggled in the run game for much of the season.

But entering the week, the Packers have not committed to Myers as the starter. Head coach Matt LaFleur said last Monday that he would "certainly expect" Patrick to start somewhere, but didn't specify whether at center or guard. According to Pro Football Focus, Myers yielded four pressures on 22 pass sets in Week 18. Only right tackle Dennis Kelly allowed more pressures (three), albeit on nearly double the number of QB dropbacks.

Meanwhile, while Whitney Mercilus will probably only play a limited role, he could still rotate in for obvious passing situations, bolstering a pass rush that also expects to feature the return of Za'Darius Smith. Mercilus might only need to play a dozen or so snaps to make an impact.

However, Patrick's availability ultimately pushes this conversation toward Myers. The Packers placed Patrick on the reserve/COVID-19 list last Wednesday, meaning the veteran offensive lineman could conceivably miss Saturday's matchup with the 49ers. While he has over a week to recover and come off the list, Myers has seen most of the practice work at center in his absence. That increases the rookie's chances of starting this weekend regardless of whether Patrick returns.

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PB: Myers because there’s no Za’Darius Smith equivalent. If Z comes back, Mercilus will be relegated to spot duty, though they’ll both likely be part-time players in either case. Myers’ potential return not only represents a potential upgrade at center, but allows the Packers to slide Lucas Patrick out to right guard where the rookie Royce Newman has played a volatile rookie season.

If Mercilus doesn’t come back, the Packers would still have a dynamic pass rush with Preston Smith, Rashan Gary, and Kenny Clark … and that’s without Za’Darius coming back. Mercilus gives them another option and that’s scary for offenses, but he’s a luxury piece. Myers fundamentally alters the makeup of the offensive line and against these teams with elite pass rushes, getting protection solidified rules all.

Parting shots

PB: Packers-Cowboys felt like destiny. It turned out to be a fever dream. Rodgers-McCarthy would have been outstanding theater, but there would also be some level of vindication if the Packers went out and won a playoff game the same week McCarthy got a pink slip in Dallas after ingloriously losing one of his own without Rodgers.

That’s not to say anyone ought to be cheering for McCarthy to be fired (though Cowboys fans certainly have and will). What’s more, any questions about the wisdom of moving on from McCarthy in favor of Matt LaFleur were asked and answered by the last three seasons of play no matter how this year ends for the Packers.

Still, it was hard not to watch the Cowboys offense go down in flames — in fairness, an offense he does not call play-to-play — and not have the quarterback able to prestidigitate to save him. Especially in that stadium.