Packers' comeback effort falls short but passing game comes to life
The Packers made plenty of mistakes on their way to trailing the Vikings 28-0. They also caught fire late in the game and nearly pulled off the comeback.
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The Green Bay Packers fell at home to the division-rival Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, a game in which they spotted the visiting team a 28-point lead. Still, the Packers forced their way back into the game and had a shot to win with a minute remaining. And, of course, this all took place with Green Bay's starting quarterback returning from a significant knee injury.
Today's edition of The Leap digs into how the Packers offense changed over the course of the contest, an emerging concern for the defense, and some personnel changes Green Bay must seriously consider as the calendar moves to October.
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Jordan Love showed rust, but the passing game eventually clicked
Jason B. Hirschhorn: As expected, Jordan Love made his return from the MCL sprain he suffered in the season opener. Also as expected, Love looked like a quarterback who hadn't seen live action in three weeks.
From the Packers' opening possession, Love's throwing looked a tad off. While he appeared comfortable operating the offense and generally made the right decisions against an often-confusing Vikings defense, Love's passes would too often dip down and away before the intended receiver could get his hands under them. This resulted in multiple near-catches that the officials ultimately ruled incomplete, including critical opportunities for Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks.
Though far from optimal, this shouldn't come as a total surprise. Because of how Love uses his lower body to drive the ball, having limited use of his lower body created mechanical issues for him to work through. Additionally, missing the last two games and practicing only on a limited basis meant Love had plenty of rust to shake off.
Still, as the game wore on, Love grew more comfortable with his knee brace and throwing mechanics. As he settled in, the passing game came to life. Love guided an 11-play, 89-yard scoring drive to kick off the fourth quarter. That possession featured only one run (an 11-yard gain by Josh Jacobs) and saw the still-healing quarterback go 8-of-10 for 78 yards and a touchdown strike to Wicks to cut the deficit to 14 points.
Later in the fourth, Love put together an even more impressive sequence. After moving the Packers offense out of the shadow of its own end zone, he hit Jayden Reed for a 21-yard reception right down the seams. The two immediately hooked up again, this time for a 42-yarder that saw Love extend the play outside the pocket and Reed make a strong play for the ball.
On the very next play, Love threw a dart through two Vikings defenders and into the waiting arms of Wicks for another touchdown.
Ultimately, the Packers couldn't execute a successful onside kick and fell two points short of completing the comeback, but the performance of Love and the passing attack late in the contest bodes well for Green Bay's immediate future. Sure, the offense made plenty of mistakes throughout Sunday, but many of those errors stem from the rust and limitations for Love that shouldn't impact future games to the same degree. The high ceiling the unit possessed before the season clearly remains intact. The team just needs its QB to avoid any setbacks.
The pass rush is a problem for Green Bay right now
JBH: The Packers' pass rush hadn't quite delivered the goods over the first three games of the season, but the small sample and the particular opponents made those data points difficult to analyze on their own. That remains true to a certain degree, but the team now has legitimate reasons for concern.
After four games, no member of the Packers' defensive front boasted a pass-rush win rate in double digits, according to Pro Football Focus. For comparison, the team had six members who crossed that threshold a year ago with Rashan Gary (17.2%) and Devonte Wyatt (15.4%) leading the group. Green Bay knew that the transition from Joe Barry's system to Jeff Hafley's would inevitably require time. However, the team made that switch to unleash the defensive front, and the opposite has occurred to this point.
For the most part, those issues didn't hold back the Packers during the first three weeks because the secondary played so well. The group delivered six of the defense's seven interceptions, including a pick-six. Even when Green Bay's defensive backs didn't create turnovers, they played stellar coverage, helping the unit as a whole deliver a 71.61 defensive passer rating.
Still, when the Packers played a more formidable offense -- and did so without corners Jaire Alexander and Carrington Valentine -- the inconsistencies of the pass rush came to the fore. On the plays where Hafley left his front four to get to Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold, they barely touched him. Both of Green Bay's sacks came on simulated pressures with a defensive end dropping into coverage (Preston Smith on the first, Kingsley Enagbare on the second). Outside of those plays, the defense registered just one QB hit.
If the lack of pressure from the defensive front persists, the Packers will find themselves in deep trouble. While Hafley can turn the blitz dial up and down as he gets a better feel for his personnel, the entire operation requires that the front four harass the quarterback on a consistent basis. Green Bay can't rely on takeaways every week to overcome a pass-rush deficiency.
The Packers do have the talent to produce better results, and the history of those players suggests improvement will come. But the necessary pressure didn't arrive when the team needed it on Sunday, and it contributed to Green Bay's defeat. Left uncorrected, it will lead to more losses.
Personnel issues the Packers can no longer ignore
JBH: For the past two years, Quay Walker has given the Packers a handful of highlight moments, including the pick-six in the 2023 season opener. However, the former first-round pick has given the team few positives in between those plays. For a linebacker with his size and athleticism, Walker too often plays small and/or loses his assignment. Both issues have sprung up again over the past three weeks and they surfaced once more on Sunday.
During the Vikings' second possession, Walker made two critical mistakes in the span of three plays. On the first snap of the series, he whiffs on a potential tackle of Aaron Jones, allowing the running back to scoot for roughly 10 yards after contact.
Two plays later, the Vikings used Justin Jefferson's pre-snap motion to successfully bait Walker into crashing the line of scrimmage. Left guard Blake Brandel immediately washes the linebacker out of the play, creating a clear path for Jones. If not for Minnesota wideout Brandon Powell hesitating on which defender to block, the run likely goes for a first down and more.
These sorts of issues have become emblematic of Walker's tenure in Green Bay. For all his talent, he routinely hurts the defense more than he helps. And given the responsibility placed on the linebackers in Hafley's system, the Packers cannot continue to overlook Walker's mistakes when they have alternatives: rookies Edgerrin Cooper and Ty'Ron Hopper.
Naturally, Cooper and Hopper can and will make mistakes. The former drew a face-mask penalty on the same play Walker whiffed on his tackle attempt of Jones. Still, the rookies have more room for growth than Walker and can only improve with reps. Quite simply, the Packers won't put themselves in the best possible position at the end of the year by giving 68 defensive snaps to Walker, 21 to Cooper, and none to Hopper as they did Sunday.
Meanwhile, it appears the Packers did not solve their kicking problem when they claimed Brayden Narveson off waivers. In four weeks, the undrafted rookie has missed five kicks (though one did not count officially due to a penalty by the opposing team). Sunday's performance ranks as the worst of the four, with Narveson hitting the upright on his first attempt and pushing the ball wide right on his second. Other than extra points and kickoffs, he did not see the field again.
After the game, head coach Matt LaFleur said he "had a lot of confidence" in Narveson and "wouldn't blink if we have to put him out there in another situation." However, LaFleur's decisions during the game suggest otherwise. At the very least, the Packers have to engage in serious discussion about what other options they have to settle the kicking position.
In theory, one possibility already resides in Green Bay's locker room. Alex Hale, a kicker and the team's International Player Pathway player, has worked with the coaching staff since August. The rookie looked highly inconsistent during training camp and did not appear in the preseason, so any progress made over the past month has occurred outside the public sphere. The Packers must believe he has some potential or they wouldn't have kept him, but that doesn't necessarily mean he should play in a regular-season game anytime soon.
The kicker market also doesn't feature any obvious upgrades. The free-agent pool features some veterans with experience like Randy Bullock and Riley Patterson, but the Packers opted against them already when they moved on from Anders Carlson and Greg Joseph. Green Bay could sign someone off another team's practice squad, and five other clubs stash a second kicker there. However, only two of those players have attempted a kick in a non-preseason game before (Matt McCrane and Spencer Shrader), and only one has done so in the past six years (Shrader).
All of which to say, the Packers might ultimately decide that Narveson provides the best path forward in 2024. But while that might prove to be the case, it shouldn't inspire much confidence.
Quay is a player that when he makes great plays its AWESOME and FUN but down to down he's been bad.