Packers can pull the plug on Matt Eberflus era in Chicago
The Packers could once again dictate Chicago's future and, consequently, shape the outlook for the NFC North.
Good morning!
After a week away, the Green Bay Packers return to work with the Chicago Bears next on the docket. That game obviously holds significant importance for this year's NFC North race, but it could also effectively shape how the division looks beyond 2024.
Today's edition of The Leap lays out the stakes of the game as well as other developments from the Packers' bye week.
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Matt Eberflus' last stand?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: Before diving into the Packers, let's look into their upcoming opponent. The Bears have lost their last three games and have gone two weeks without scoring a touchdown. Granted, two of those defeats came at the hands of the currently 6-4 Arizona Cardinals and 7-3 Washington Commanders. But Chicago's latest loss occurred at home against the putrid, talent-deficient New England Patriots, a result which sunk the team to a 4-5 record.
Matt Eberflus, the Bears' head coach who entered 2024 with no true job security beyond the season, now finds himself squarely in the crosshairs entering Week 11. He owns a 14-29 record since he took the reins and the chances of securing his first winning season appear increasingly small by the week. Even more troubling, No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams' development appears to have hit a wall since the start of November, a factor that will determine Eberflus' future more than any other.
Beyond the on-field results, the warning signs have already begun to surface. When asked whether Eberflus had considered changing offensive coordinators, he responded, "We'll look into everything." If that sounds somewhat familiar, remember that Indianapolis Colts' head coach Shane Steichen delivered a similar remark two weeks ago about quarterback Anthony Richardson before benching him. Rarely does a coach provide this kind of response without seriously considering a major shakeup.
That provides the backdrop for next Sunday's tilt. Green Bay needs the game in order to stay competitive in the NFC North where the division-rival Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings picked up wins this weekend despite their signal-callers tossing eight combined interceptions. And as the Packers exit their bye, they'll want as favorable a setting as possible to test out the adjustments that typically accompany a week of self-scouting. The Bears, while talented in several areas, offer a reasonably soft landing spot in their current form.
The Packers also expect to look healthier after a week of rest. Jordan Love's knee and groin injuries hampered him throughout the first half of the season, but the break provided the best and perhaps last real chance to get over the injury hump in 2024. On the other side of the ball, Jaire Alexander and Evan Williams seem likely to return to the lineup. All three should have plenty of margin for error during Sunday's matchup.
All of which bodes well for Green Bay and poorly for Chicago. The Bears desperately need a win to prevent their season from fully unraveling, and a fresh, talented opponent like the Packers could well prove a death knell for the current coaching staff. The two teams appear headed in opposite directions, and the gap between them will look nearly insurmountable if the game unfolds as expected.
If the Packers win, they will effectively have pulled the plug on the Eberflus era. Not only would such a result extend the Bears' losing streak to four games, it would represent their latest failed attempt to secure so much as a regular-season win over their archrival. That matters significantly to Chicago's management who, as The Leap reported last year, weighed the Green Bay game as it pertained to the futures of Eberflus and then-starting QB Justin Fields.
The Bears might not fire Eberflus should they lose on Sunday -- they have never made a change at head coach during the season -- but he'll have no realistic path to safety should they fall to 4-6 on the season with upcoming matchups against the Vikings, Lions, and Christian McCaffrey-led San Francisco 49ers over the next three weeks. In that sense, the Packers can once again dictate Chicago's future and, consequently, shape the outlook for the NFC North.
Which bye-week questions do you believe the Packers will provide clear answers as soon as this Sunday?
JBH: For any new readers, we published two sets of questions the Packers must address during their bye week: one concerning the offense and the other detailing issues with the defense.
On offense, the Packers probably can't make it through Week 11 without providing some clarity on the wideout rotation. As The Leap laid out last week, the coaches can't currently justify Dontayvion Wicks' role within the offense. Despite playing 48.1% of the offensive snaps, Wicks has just four fewer targets than team leader Jayden Reed (47). Wicks also has the highest drop rate on the team (27.3%). He easily leads Green Bay's "big four" receivers in targets on a per-snap basis and has the least production of the group to show for it.
Wicks remains a talented player and still has a bright future, and the Packers won't (and shouldn't) simply remove him from the rotation. However, they have to prioritize other receivers right now, including the aforementioned Reed.
On the other side of the ball, it shouldn't take long for Green Bay to reveal how it plans to handle the D-line rotation. Preston Smith's workload had shrunk in recent weeks, but he remained a major piece of the defensive front before last week's trade. How the coaches allocate those snaps -- not just the total number but the situations in which they came -- will reveal how they feel about the pass rushers behind Rashan Gary.
And while the most straightforward solution involves 2023 first-round pick Lukas Van Ness stepping into the void, the Packers could realistically take another path. General manager Brian Gutekunst specifically mentioned Arron Mosby and Brenton Cox Jr. as players who have earned larger roles. And as detailed in the story about the defensive questions, they can provide certain qualities that the other potential Smith replacements don't.
Given that Sunday's game will arrive after a bye and the Smith trade, whatever approach to the defensive line the Packers take will have come after considerably more internal discussion than the typical week. Accordingly, unless injuries intervene, we should have a much better understanding of how the coaching staff stacks the remaining pass rushers in a matter of days.
Parting shot
JBH: Feeling surprised by Jared Goff's five interceptions on Sunday? How about Sam Darnold's three-pick effort?
Remember where you heard it first.
