On Matt LaFleur and kick-go decisions

Matt LaFleur once ranked among the NFL's best kick-go decision-makers. However, the Packers' head coach has wildly altered his approach in 2024 for the worse.

For the vast majority of Matt LaFleur's tenure as the Green Bay Packers' head coach, he has created schematic and cultural advantages for his teams that few franchises could match. He helped Aaron Rodgers rediscover his MVP form. He helped Jordan Love develop into a worthy successor.

LaFleur also instilled a fearless approach to fourth downs. From 2019 to 2023, few NFL head coaches created more advantages for their teams on fourth down than LaFleur who had the fourth highest go rate over that span. While not every decision worked out as planned, the majority of them did, helping the Packers win the fifth most one-possession games during that stretch.

This represented a stark departure from the coaching tree that produced LaFleur. Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay, the two head coaches under which LaFleur made his name, each ranked among the back half of the NFL. Shanahan and McVay largely remain on the conservative end, the most notable warts on their mostly impressive résumés.

(via RBSDM.com)

LaFleur seemed to find a better balance than his coaching peers. He demonstrated an aggressive approach in most kick-go situations, but he didn't automatically leave the offense on the field when the situation didn't call for it. For comparison, former Los Angeles Chargers headman Brandon Staley went for it even when the numbers didn't support the decision. LaFleur pushed his advantages, but he didn't overplay them. That made all the difference.

However, the 2024 season has seen LaFleur take a wildly different approach to kick-go situations. He hasn't merely grown more conservative; he has transformed into the most conservative fourth-down decision-maker in the league.

(via RBSDM.com)

It remains entirely unclear why LaFleur has shifted his approach. He has the same quarterback and almost entirely the same offensive roster as he did a year ago when he ranked ninth in go rate. The most notable personnel changes actually favor a more aggressive mentality, as running back Josh Jacobs has delivered a stellar debut season in Green Bay. Love's lower-body injuries might have played a factor earlier in the year, but that doesn't explain LaFleur's fourth-down conservatism now.

This past Sunday's matchup with the Seattle Seahawks recent game put LaFleur's head-scratching kick-go approach on full display. While the Packers never trailed in the game, LaFleur allowed the Seahawks to claw back into the game during the second half, creating high levels of anxiety for Green Bay.

And those decisions merit a closer inspection. Let's review each of the kick-go calls LaFleur made at or beyond midfield in Seattle.