Joe Barry authors epitaph to his tenure as Packers DC
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur seeks "solutions" for his team's defensive woes, but the problem won't improve until a DC change occurs.
Good morning!
The Green Bay Packers fell for the second time in a week, losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home 34-20. The game dealt a significant blow to the Packers' playoff hopes while perhaps signaling the unofficial end for the team's embattled defensive coordinator.
Today's edition of The Leap unpacks Sunday's defensive meltdown, the fine offensive performance that Green Bay squandered, and looks at where the team stands with three weeks left to play.
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Sunday's defensive performance against the Bucs effectively ended Joe Barry's tenure as Packers defensive coordinator
Jason B. Hirschhorn: The need for Green Bay to move on from defensive coordinator Joe Barry became apparent before Sunday's 34-point drubbing at the hands of the Buccaneers. The same defense that couldn't register a single sack of Tommy DeVito against an undermanned New York Giants' O-line last week quite literally couldn't get a stop against Tampa after halftime of Sunday's game. The Packers didn't just seem unprepared, they appeared helpless.
"They're beating us, they're outcoaching us, they're out-scheming us, and they're outplaying us, ultimately," Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said of the Packers' defensive struggles. "Typically, if you want to take one of the things away, you typically can do that. Unfortunately, I think it all stems from when you do have trouble stopping the run and you start committing more people, it leaves you exposed on the backend.
"Baker went out and shredded us."
While the Packers defense hasn't struggled in all facets at all times, the unit has too many leaks to plug at once. On Sunday, Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield could usually find an open wideout or tight end working the seams, often with a linebacker a step or more behind. Tampa finished the game with eight completions of 20 or more yards, five of which came on those seam throws that Green Bay couldn't figure out how to defend.
Those defensive issues led directly to Chris Godwin's statistically biggest performance of the season. The Tampa Bay wideout regularly worked the soft spots in the middle of the field, finishing the game with 10 catches for 155 yards.
"It all depends on the coverage," LaFleur said of the game plan for Godwin. "When you're in shell defense, that happens. As a matter of fact, we had one of our receivers matched up on an outside linebacker and we didn't win on that play. We didn't win on the route. We were playing quarters coverage, we ran a 'lookie' route, and the linebacker did a great job of taking the air out of it. So, it's not like an anomaly. This happens all the time. But we got to play things better and we got to coach it better, bottom line."
And even when the Packers did manage to put Tampa Bay into unfavorable situations, the defense found a way to collapse. The Bucs faced six third downs with 5 or more yards to the sticks. One of those plays ended in a sack and another in an incomplete pass. The other four either resulted in a new set of downs or a score.
And that list doesn't even include the most glaring breakdown of the game. During the final minutes of the second quarter, the Packers pushed the Buccaneers out of field goal range via a Lukas Van Ness sack and offensive-holding penalty, forcing Mayfield and Co. into a second-and-29 situation just inside Green Bay territory. The defense then immediately crumbled, letting Godwin find open space for a 24-yard gain. The drive resulted in a field goal to push Tampa ahead as the first half expired.
"The possession right before the end of the half was extremely disappointing," LaFleur said. "Second-and-29 or whatever, and they get a big explosion play that leads to points. Got to go back and look at it and find out why that exactly happened. But ultimately, it just wasn't good enough."
"Wasn't good enough" might as well serve as the epitaph for Barry's tenure as Packers defensive coordinator. In almost three full seasons, his units have never played up to their talent level for more than a few games at a time and frequently melt down in the biggest moments. And given that Barry designs his scheme to limit explosive plays and force opponents to chisel away at field position bit by bit, it doesn't bode well that the defense so routinely allows big gains. That proved true again Sunday as Mayfield became the first visiting quarterback to post a perfect passer rating at Lambeau Field.
Whether Barry survives the loss to the Buccaneers ultimately doesn't change how his story in Green Bay will end. At this stage, any lingering possibility of Barry surviving long enough to see next season has dissipated. The Packers will have a new defensive coordinator in 2024. Barry made that decision for them.
Overshadowed by defensive implosion, young Packers offense continues to improve
JBH: Barry's disasterclass performance against the Buccaneers became the topic du jour in Green Bay, but it overshadowed important developments on the other side of the ball. Playing without Christian Watson, Luke Musgrave, and AJ Dillon as well as Aaron Jones limited in his return from injury, the Packers offense continued to find ways to move the ball throughout the contest.
Jordan Love rebounded well from last week's uneven showing against the Giants with a strong and consistent performance Sunday. While he did sail a few passes he needs to better place, he didn't miss often, completing nearly 75% of his attempts for 284 yards and two touchdowns. And as has become an encouraging trend for the Packers, Love made another eyepopping throw to keep his team alive.
The Packers received other big plays from their rookie pass catchers. Tucker Kraft, the tight end who recently came into prominence following Musgrave's lacerated kidney, appears to have a knack for getting wide open down the field.
Back in his college days at South Dakota State, Kraft put himself on the NFL radar with his physicality and willingness to block. Those traits remain important parts of his profile, but the rookie's receiving acumen continues to look more impressive than expected at this stage. Given the importance of tight ends in the Packers' offensive system and the prospect of playing Kraft and Musgrave together in the future, the position seems to have a bright future in Green Bay.
But Dontayvion Wicks came up biggest for Green Bay's offense. L than a week removed from an ankle injury he feared would end his season, the rookie wideout delivered the finest performance of his young career, catching six of his seven targets for 97 yards.
And those numbers, while impressive on their own, don't tell the full story. Wicks saved the Packers multiple times on a critical second-half possession. Late in the drive and facing third-and-8, he found the soft spot in the zone for a 21-yard gain. That would typically constitute the highlight for a rookie receiver, but Wicks had an even more impressive play on a third down earlier in the series, catching a pass off a quick slant and literally carrying multiple defenders for 22 yards.
That drive resulted in a touchdown to bring the Packers within three points of the Bucs, but it would have ended well before midfield without Wicks' heroics.
"He did what he's been doing all season," Love said of Wicks. "He's going out there and he's making plays. He's getting in the right spot. And then, obviously, when the ball gets in his hands, he's making plays after the catch. He had a big game. Obviously, he's a great player and something we have to continue to build on going forward. I think he's just been getting better every week."
Of the rookie pass catchers who have played significant roles for Green Bay this season, Wicks probably had the smallest profile upon initial arrival. However, he already has a credible case as the Packers' most effective boundary wideout, especially with Watson battling a series of injuries in each of his two seasons. And though Wicks' prominence in the offense shifts from week to week, his skill set and playing style validly draw comparisons to that of Davante Adams.
Certainly, Wicks hasn't reached Adams' level and might never get there. But the fact that a fifth-round rookie delivered 31 catches for 491 yards and a touchdown in 14 games despite playing fewer than half the team's offensive snaps highlights Wicks' impressive play to date and his considerable potential.
All of which underscores how badly the Packers defense squandered the moment. The offense, even with its mistakes in the red zone, did more than enough to carry the day.
The simplest way to explain the Packers' playoff outlook
JBH: Back-to-back losses have striped the Packers of control in their pursuit of the playoffs, but several paths to the postseason remain available. Put most simply, the likeliest such scenarios involve each of the following:
The Packers win their final three games: at the Carolina Panthers, at the Minnesota Vikings, versus the Chicago Bears.
No non-division winner in the NFC finishes better than 9-8.
If both of those come to fruition, the Packers will qualify for the playoffs and not necessarily as the No. 7 seed. For example, if the Detroit Lions win or tie the Vikings in either of the two games those teams play between now and the regular season, a 9-8 Green Bay could get the sixth seed.
Conversely, the Packers could wind up in a heartbreaking scenario where they win out and still fail to quality. One such scenario involves the Los Angeles Rams winning out to finish 10-7 and the Vikings closing at 9-8 to claim the final two wild-card berths. That would require some major upsets on the part of both teams, but the NFL has seen crazier outcomes.
Regardless of the specifics, the Packers still have a traversable path to the playoffs should they run the table. That prospect seems more challenging after their recent losses, but it doesn't look like a Herculean task either.