Joe Barry again proves Packers' ceiling limited without DC change

In 2021 and '22, the Packers hit their ceiling with Joe Barry as DC well short of the Super Bowl. They hit that ceiling again Monday night in New York.

Entering Monday night, the Green Bay Packers sat in prime position to steer themselves ever closer to a playoff berth and perhaps even claw back into the NFC North race. The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks dropped further behind in the wild-card standings while the Detroit Lions almost literally handed over a win to the Chicago Bears. With the Packers drawing a 4-8 New York Giants team starting a third-string, undrafted rookie under center, the chessboard could hardly have played out more favorably.

However, instead of taking care of business against a markedly inferior opponent, Green Bay failed to meet the moment. The now 6-7 club short-circuited in all three phases, though some more glaringly than others.

After a red-hot string of games, Jordan Love came crashing down to earth at MetLife Stadium. In the opening quarter, he missed badly on third-down throws to Dontayvion Wicks and AJ Dillon in back-to-back series. Two drives later, Love fumbled while trying to scramble toward the first-down marker, turning over the ball just inside the Giants' 30-yard line.

Love's troublesome first half didn't end there, however. On the Packers' next possession, he threw deep and outside to a well-covered Wicks, hanging the ball in the air long enough for New York safety Jason Pinnock to pick it off and take it nearly to midfield.

"It was a bad read," Love said of the interception. "It kind of got hung up too long, just held my eyes kind of to the left a little too long. The safety was able to play over the top and had a good read. Not a good ball."

But while Love and the offense warrant criticism for how they operated in the first half, the unit began to figure things out before the Giants could pull away. In the fourth quarter, Love led four drives that ended with a field-goal attempt or touchdown, pulling ahead with under two minutes remaining in regulation on a great throw to Malik Heath at the goal line.

Meanwhile, the Packers' special teams continued to make field-tilting errors despite multiple years of investments in personnel and coaching. The rollercoaster ride of Anders Carlson continued Monday as the rookie kicker pulled a field-goal attempt wide left after flirting with another miss on a previous kick. Those three points proved crucial down the stretch as they allowed the Giants to settle for a game-winning field goal rather than try to punch in the go-ahead touchdown.

The punting unit also didn't cover itself in glory. On Green Bay's second punt, Rudy Ford drew a flag for catch interference after colliding with Gunner Olszewski. The penalty gave New York a starting position in field-goal range.

Worse still, Keisean Nixon muffed a punt early in the third quarter and then made the unconscionable mistake of trying to scoop up the ball and run instead of jumping on the ball to secure possession. The Packers wouldn't expect nor expect such a blunder from a rookie let alone an All-Pro returner from just a season ago.

But for all the times the Packers gave away the ball, the Giants only seven points off takeaways. While that might seem like a tribute to Green Bay's defense at a glance, New York mostly inflicted the damage onto itself via penalties and blocking mishaps.

Though multiple parties bear responsibility for their performances on Monday, defensive coordinator Joe Barry earned the largest piece of the blame pie. His unit largely got a pass from head coach Matt LaFleur and the media after holding opponents under 21 points in seven of their first 12 games. However, the low scoring belied systemic problems that have characterized the defense under Barry's watch for multiple seasons.

On paper, the Packers defense had a clear path to victory. With the Giants' offensive line in shambles and Tommy DeVito making his fourth NFL start, the pass rush led by Rashan Gary and Preston Smith should have ruled the day. Forcing DeVito to make mistakes or sacking him should have led to favorable outcomes for Green Bay again and again.

That formula worked for New York's last two opponents. Three weeks ago, the Washington Commanders sacked DeVito nine times. The New England Patriots threatened that total the following Sunday, taking down the rookie signal-caller six times. Neither defense features superlative talent along the front but each found a way to get to DeVito with great frequency.

However, as has often happened during Barry's tenure, he picked inopportune moments to blitz and the wrong times to rush only three. The Packers, armed with more pass-rushing talent than the Giants' last two opponents combined, failed to record a single sack on Monday night.

But as poorly as Barry's blitzes worked out for the Packers, his conservative calls on the final two defensive series loom even larger.

On the Giants' penultimate offensive drive, Barry sat in nickel personnel, essentially yielding to the ground game despite the Packers needing a quick stop to stay alive. New York responded with three runs for Saquon Barkley that delivered gains of 6, 17, and 34 yards. If not for Barkley's unforced fumble on the third of those carries, Green Bay probably would have given up another score and essentially the game.

But Barry didn't learn from those mistakes. Instead, he made largely conservative calls on the Giants' final possession. They began that drive down one point with 1:33 left on the game clock and two timeouts, more than enough runway to move into field-goal range. Accordingly, Green Bay could not afford to drop back into a de facto prevent defense even with an inexperienced rookie under center.

Yet Barry did, yielding the space in front of the first-down markers to DeVito and Co. on back-to-back-to-back plays. Three easy completions set up New York near midfield, less than 20 yards from field-goal range.

Sensing the game slipping out of hand, Barry dialed up a blitz against a heavy Giants formation. Second-year wideout Wan'Dale Robinson beat Nixon on an outbreaker, and DeVito delivered him the ball in stride.

The whole sequence played out like a New York tabloid fever dream, with DeVito as the prodigal son and Barry as the ill-prepared foil. As the field-goal attempt from Giants kicker Randy Bullock sailed through the uprights in the closing seconds, the green-white-and-red celebration had kicked into top gear in East Rutherford.

But while Tuesday's talk shows will understandably focus on DeVito and the game's storybook ending, the Giants won't factor into the NFC playoffs. The Packers might, but not without overcoming their defensive coordinator.

All of which underscores the biggest problem facing Green Bay. The development of Love and his young supporting cast offer valid reason for optimism, the defense has not and probably will not play up to the potential of its personnel without a coordinator change. Barry has nearly spent three seasons running the unit, none of them successful. The Packers finished 12th overall in defensive DVOA in 2021 (though notably 26th against the rush) and regressed to 25th overall last year. They entered Monday ranked 19th and will slide back after their performance in New York.

The Packers possess too much talent on that side of the ball to justify those results. Other teams have undergone year-over-year transformations with a coordinator change, most recently the Cleveland Browns under new DC Jim Schwartz (No. 1 in DVOA this season after finishing 16th the previous year). Green Bay doesn't need the league's premier defense to contend, but it does require a lot more than Barry has or seemingly can provide.

How much longer Barry holds on to his job remains uncertain. But if the Packers hope to eventually become more than just a wild-card contender, the decision they need to make couldn't look clearer.

-- Jason B. Hirschhorn is an award-winning sports journalist and Pro Football Writers of America member. Follow him on social media: @by_JBH on Twitter / @by_jbh on Instagram / @JBH@mastodon.social on Mastodon / @byjbh@bsky.social on Bluesky / @by_jbh on Threads