How would a big swing at a position of need change the Packers' draft plans?

The Packers missed out on DK Metcalf and Davante Adams, but Trey Hendrick is still on the block. And the tampering period is about to start. Brian Gutekunst has to get someone, but then what?

Mar 10, 2025

Good morning!

The tampering period for the 2025 new league year kicks off this morning, and the biggest move the Green Bay Packers make might not even be a signing; it could be a trade. There’s self-described urgency to make a Super Bowl run right now, so Brian Gutekunst faces pressure to take a big swing.

Today's edition of The Leap looks at how such a move would affect the rest of the offseason, depending on where and who it is.

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Trey Hendrickson could be a trade target, while free-agent prizes D.J. Reed, Khalil Mack, and others offer high-level reinforcements at need positions. How would bagging one of those big fish trickle down to the draft?

Peter Bukowski: The short answer is “it depends.” Trading draft picks for a player like Trey Hendrickson directly impacts the draft that goes beyond the philosophical, with picks going out in the deal. What’s more, trading for Hendrickson, then extending him at the top of the market, would create fewer opportunities for the team to add in other parts of free agency.

But it also fundamentally changes the degree to which the Packers would need to improve those positions. Let’s walk through a handful of scenarios, some specific and some vague, to try and suss out the ramifications for the rest of the offseason.

Trey Hendrickson trade

I wanted to start here because the conversation is more interesting if they don’t make a deal for the Cincinnati Bengals’ disgruntled star pass rusher. There isn’t a move that would have an equivalent impact on the rest of the offseason. If Brian Gutekunst manages to reel in Hendrickson, he will likely have to part with meaningful draft picks, which all but lock the Packers into using the other premium draft assets on other positions.

That’s not true for Green Bay, even if Josh Sweat got $20 million or more in a free agent deal to join Jeff Hafley’s group. We’ve seen Gutekunst spend big in free agency, then double or triple-down in the draft. Think the Smith Bros., before Rashan Gary at the top of the first round.

A Sweat or Khalil Mack signing, even if it’s for significant money, wouldn’t have the same impact. Now, both? That would be a free-agent horse of a decidedly different color.

If Hendrickson gets dealt for a second or third-round pick, then think of Hendrickson as that pick, and assume they’re going a different direction with the other selections.

A Hendrickson deal could keep defensive tackle in play, however, with questions about the futures of Devonte Wyatt and Kenny Clark hanging over the next 12 months. On the other hand, spending $30 million or more on one player would be part of the opportunity cost of not signing a veteran cornerback, making that need in the draft even more glaring.

DK Metcalf trade/Davante Adams signing

Oh wait, this didn’t happen? And you’re saying it can’t happen because they’re on new teams already?

That makes this question of “now what?” even more relevant. Free agency does not provide any meaningful upgrades, and for now at least, the trade market parlays have all been cashed. Last week, I suggested that if they can’t snag DK Metcalf or Davante Adams, a first-round receiver made sense this year.

Consider them unsnagged.

But that doesn’t mean Gutekunst and Co. have to sit on their hands through the free agency period. A fringe signing for speed like a reunion with Marquez Valdes-Scantling could make some sense, but more likely, the Packers would turn to the premium draft options.

The aforementioned Jayden Higgins will remain a hot name in Draft Twitter circles, and he’s now getting fringe first-round buzz (right where the Packers could take him). Jalen Royals is another name to watch. He’s thickly built with speed to burn, a bit raw as a route runner, but he would be an instant injection of speed and playmaking into the offense.

How many players on the Packers roster could make that play? Just get him the ball on a slant and let him house it after leaving a crashing safety in another dimension?

Maybe Jayden Reed? Tucker Kraft if he had more runway? Not to mention he’s a 4.4 burner who wins vertically as well, fits the Packers’ size preferences, and produced at a high level at Utah State. I spoke to a talent evaluator at the combine who believed Royals could play the boundary as well, which would make it possible to have him on the field with Reed in the slot together.

Although Gutekunst has been less open to reunions than his old boss, Ted Thompson, signing MVS would provide the Packers some breaking room heading into the draft.

Then again, so would signing some impact defenders. Speaking of …

Impact signing on the edge

This is separate for the reasons I mentioned above: I’m not sure much changes. An upper-middle-class defensive end signing would mean less money to pay a high-level cornerback, but on a long-term deal, those numbers can be massaged with the NFL’s mob accounting system.

The upside case for this is the opportunity to sign multiple potential starters. If the Packers pry a star away, they’re less likely to make another significant move. For example, trading for Hendrickson lowers the likelihood of paying the free-agent premium on someone like D.J. Reed, though the money can always be made to work if Green Bay wants to be creative.

This is a deep class of pass rushers in the draft and just an OK class of cornerbacks. Signing a Chase Young, Sweat, or Mack frees the Packers up to be more aggressive getting one of the top corners in the draft, then waiting for the depth of the defensive line draft class to reveal itself later on.

Impact starter signing at cornerback

Paulson Adebo, Charvarius Ward or Reed fit who the Packers want to be defensively and won’t cost the top-of-market prices Green Bay paid last year for Xavier McKinney, for example. We also just saw the current group of players finish with a top-10 defense by DVOA and EPA/play, even with Jaire Alexander only playing half a season. No one played better in the playoffs against the Philadelphia Eagles’ threshing machine of an offense than Hafley’s crew.

Though it’s not as simple as, “Sign Reed, case closed,” the circumstances may be close. Keisean Nixon proved himself a capable outside starter, and the team thinks very highly of rising sophomore Javon Bullard in the slot. Carrington Valentine gives them experienced depth and plays with an edge. That’s a quality room with that potential featuring a true No. 1 cornerback, and Nixon is under contract through 2026, meaning no rush to find a replacement.

Signing an Adebo or Reed could check the position off the list at the top of the draft, at least as a premium need. It shouldn’t preclude the Packers from taking a shot on a high pick if one of the top talents in the class makes it them whether that’s someone like Texas standout Jahdae Barron at pick 23 or Ole Miss’s Trey Amos at pick 55.

Despite a slow-ish 40 time, I’m still bullish on Cal’s Nohl Williams as a Packers type with his experience, tenacity, and elite ball skills. Signing a cornerback would allow them to be patient in the draft, preferring to stock up on pass rush at the top where history says teams have to select them for the best chance at finding impactful players.