How the Packers can attack the best defense in the NFL to pull a Wild Card stunner

Green Bay played a C+ offensive game in Week 1 with penalties, execution and some key mistakes, but still scored 29 points and put up 414 yards of offense. Can they do it again?

When the Philadelphia Eagles lose, their league-best defense gets out-matched. The Atlanta Falcons put up 385 yards in an early-season win. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cruised past 400 yards and 30 points when they took out the Eagles. Jayden Daniels tossed five touchdowns and the Commanders had to go over 30 to beat Philly a few weeks ago. But this is the best defense in the NFL. Attacking them won’t be easy. What do they do well, and how can the Packers find success? We’ve seen the blueprint before.

According to Field Vision’s charting via our friends at Match Quarters (we support independent football content!), the Eagles play Cover-1 at just the 14th-highest rate in the NFL. On the other hand, by the same charting, the Minnesota Vikings played it at the lowest rate in the league but majored in it against the Packers in the first half just two weeks ago.

Philadelphia has the cornerbacks to increase their man usuage with rookies Quinyon Mitchell, and Cooper DeJean alongside Darius Slay who has had plenty of battles with the Packers over the year. When Philly plays man, the defense has the third-best EPA/dropback behind only the Vikings and Bills.

But this team prefers to live in a two-high world where their zone coverage often cashes out similar to a man structure. Fangio wants to play aggressive zone coverages where players match based on alignment and numbers. That often means a backside X receiver facing a cornerback in “zone” coverage that ends up 1-on-1, or a slot receiver getting a safety to run with him vertically.

“I don’t think they change necessarily from week to week, “ LaFleur said Wednesday.

“You just don’t see a lot of open space, a lot of ‘gotcha plays.’ They keep everything in front of you and you’re gonna have to earn it. You have to do that with consistent execution, stay ahead of the sticks because if they get you in third-and-long, it’s a nightmare.”

No one plays more Cover-6 than the Eagles and they’re top five in quarters rate. Those are the hallmarks of the Fangio tree. But the coverage they play most is still Cover-3, which means they’ll usually start in a two-deep safety shell, then rotate someone to become the hole player.

The only team that disguises from two high more than the Eagles are the Los Angeles Rams and the Packers have shown they have answers. Green Bay ran this mini-leak play against both the Rams and Eagles this year and it worked in each matchup. Kraft took this for a monster catch-and-run touchdown in LA.

And the Rams are coincidentally a terrific proxy for the Packers to use this week. Not just the 2024 Rams; the 2020 Rams.