How the chessboard looks for the Packers with free agency about to begin

The Packers' offseason plans have come into focus over the last few weeks.

Good morning!

Free agency doesn't officially kick off until Wednesday, but the market will begin to move well before that. The NFL's contract-negotiation window -- better known as the "legal-tampering period" -- opens later today, allowing clubs to hammer out deals with veterans from other teams. Though the Green Bay Packers have not always spent heavily during this part of the process, they could realistically take a more active role this time around.

Today's' edition of The Leap looks at how the Packers' plans have shifted since the start of the offseason, why they parted ways with one former All-Pro, and why they haven't done so with another.

---

Thank you for reading and supporting our coverage. You can also support our work by following us on social media:

Jason B. Hirschhorn: @by_JBH on Twitter / @byjbh@bsky.social on Bluesky / @by_jbh on Threads

Peter Bukowski: @Peter_Bukowski on Twitter / @peterbukowski@bsky.social on Bluesky / @peter_bukowski on Threads

The Leap: @TheLeapGB on Twitter / The Leap's YouTube channel

If you appreciate thoughtful, independent coverage of the Packers and NFL, please consider becoming a paid subscriber. Your support allows us to serve this community with the stories and reporting it deserves.

As always, thanks for making The Leap a part of your day.

---

What did the combine clarify about the Packers' offseason plans?

Jason B. Hirschhorn: Entering the offseason, most viewed the incoming safety class as thin. The combine not only reinforced that notion, it effectively took options off the table for the Packers.

The most notable disappointment came from Miami safety Kamren Kinchens, considered one of the top prospects at the position entering combine week. That perception surely changed for many teams after his stunningly poor performance in Indianapolis. Kinchens ran the 40-yard dash in over 4.6 seconds, and that proved to be one of his better measurements.

Meanwhile, Iowa defensive back Cooper DeJean didn't work out at the combine. Though not a problem in a vacuum -- he will have the chance to demonstrate his athleticism at his pro day -- a strong showing in Indy could have canceled out some of the concerns about Kinchens and the lack of safety depth in the rookie class.

So, with the incoming rookies unlikely to solve the Packers' safety concerns out of the gate, the veteran market becomes critical. Fortunately for Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst, the free-agency pool has no shortage of viable options. That remains true even after former All-Pro safety Kevin Byard signed with the Chicago Bears over the weekend. Gutekunst could add a proven safety like Quandre Diggs or Justin Simmons to a short-term deal and still have plenty of resources left to further address the secondary.

Because the market features so many veteran safeties, the Packers don't necessarily have to land one during the first few days of free agency. Moreover, the depth should depress the cost for those players, allowing Green Bay to limit the salary-cap impact of a signing.

But the Packers do need to add a veteran safety or two at some point before the regular season. The combine strongly suggests that failing to do so would lead to another difficult year for Green Bay's back end.

Why did the Packers choose to release De'Vondre Campbell?

JBH: To some, the answer to this question will seem obvious. De'Vondre Campbell hasn't replicated his All-Pro performance from 2021, turns 31 in July, has battled injuries, and has a 2024 cap number north of $14 million. Considering together, that makes for a compelling case to move on from Campbell and add cap space.

Still, the Packers had reasons to retain Campbell. For whatever faults he possesses, he has outperformed every off-ball linebacker on the team over the past two seasons by a significant margin. Quay Walker, the team's first-round pick in 2022, has made some splash plays and has the athletic profile to develop into a field tilter, but his overall body of work hasn't come close to matching his potential. Isaiah McDuffie, the reserve linebacker who saw more action in 2023 in Campbell's absence, doesn't look like an answer either.

Considering the in-house alternatives and the increased importance of linebacker in new DC Jeff Hafley's scheme, the Packers could have made the case to bring back Campbell in 2024. Perhaps that would have required a reworked deal, and certainly the former All-Pro wouldn't have wanted to take a pay cut. However, Green Bay likely could have still offered him more than what the market will likely bear.

So, with Campbell on his way out, where do the Packers go from here? For starters, the aforementioned caps savings won't materialize until June 1, meaning the team will have to carry his $14.2 million cap hit through the 2024 NFL Draft and beyond. Green Bay doesn't need that space right now, but it can't simply allocate that money in March and wait for the summer for the books to even out.

And without Campbell, the Packers will at least inquire about veterans, both in free agency and the trade market. Walker can plausibly improve in Year 3, but returning a position group with him as the headliner places an unfair burden on the young defender. And while the depth at off-ball linebacker doesn't quite match safety this year, free agency does offer some decent options in Green Bay's price range. Blake Cashman performed well in that role for the Houston Texans last year, a team that played a similar defense. Jerome Baker could also make sense after the Miami Dolphins released him earlier this month.

The Packers don't even necessarily have to land a "name" linebacker to replace Campbell. But without him, they'll need to get help from someone not currently on the roster.

Why haven't the Packers moved on from David Bakhtiari yet?

JBH: For months, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Packers would move on from All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari this offseason. Doing so in any fashion would result in a net cap savings of nearly $21 million, a significant chunk of change with which the team could make significant investments elsewhere. Yet, with free agency fast approaching, Bakhtiari remains in Green Bay.

More than one explanation exists for Bakhtiari's continued presence on the roster. While the situation could conceivably change at any time, the Packers have no clear deadline to make a move. As referenced above, the front office could release or trade Bakhtiari at any time -- before or after June 1 -- and receive the same cap benefit. That means Green Bay could wait to see if a team will trade an asset for the five-time All-Pro. Threatening de facto New York Jets GM Aaron Rodgers with a good time might prove too tempting for Gutekunst to ignore.

Alternatively, the threat of missing out on the most lucrative part of the offseason could push Bakhtiari to negotiate a cheaper, incentive-laden deal for 2024 and remain in place. Doing so would allow Bakhtiari to prove he has finally put his injury concerns behind him while providing the Packers with high-level tackle play for a fraction of the usual cost. If Bakhtiari's health fails him again, Rasheed Walker could step in as he did last season.

Of course, the Packers could simply wait until they have a use for Bakhtiari's cap savings before releasing him. Though they have plenty of reason to dive into the safety and linebacker markets, that shouldn't eat up too much of their cap space. The next expected major expenditure that could force Green Bay to open up funds won't come until May when quarterback Jordan Love first becomes eligible to sign an extension. Perhaps Green Bay won't wait that long to move Bakhtiari, but the team leaves its options open by sitting on his rights.

The timing will reveal the truth about the situation. If the Packers release Bakhtiari in the next week or two, it might signal another significant development will soon follow. If they wait longer, the chances of a blockbuster move shrink considerably.