How much of a need is cornerback for the Packers this offseason?
The Packers expect to bring back Jaire Alexander and saw plenty to like in 2023 draft pick Carrington Valentine, but how much work does their cornerback room still require?
Good morning!
This past week, the NFL didn't stage a game -- or whatever the Pro Bowl has morphed into -- for the first time since last August. Still, the lack of an on-field product doesn't mean the league has gone dormant. With the NFL Scouting Combine and free agency just on the horizon, teams like the Green Bay Packers have plenty on their plate.
Today's edition of The Leap looks at one of the biggest questions the Packers must address in the coming months and highlights one of the hiring mistakes they might have avoided this offseason.
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How much of a need is cornerback for the Packers this offseason?
Jason B. Hirschhorn: First, let's look at the players that currently comprise the Packers' cornerback room. Jaire Alexander remains under contract through several more seasons and, after some consternation about his future in Green Bay following a team-issued suspension before a must-have game, it appears the All-Pro corner will return for 2024.
"Those things are difficult, and those are tough, but at the end of the day, I think it allowed us all to kind of reset," Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said earlier this month of Alexander's suspension. "I'm really, really proud of the way Jaire responded to that, and I really think that's going to help us moving forward."
Gutekunst also said he never gave any consideration to trading the star cornerback, who remains a field-tilting talent as demonstrated during the Packers' playoff run.
With Alexander set to return as the lead corner, the rest of the room comes into focus. Among those currently under contract for next season, rookie Carrington Valentine led the position with 695 defensive snaps. He flashed potential as a long-term starter and his size and physicality project well to new DC Jeff Hafley's expected scheme changes. That should provide Green Bay with at least capable cornerback play.
The questions begin immediately after Alexander and Valentine, however. In theory, former first-round pick Eric Stokes should benefit from the new defensive system, but injuries have cost him 24 games over the last two seasons, including playoffs. Stokes ultimately spent two separate stints on injured reserve in 2023. Much as with David Bakhtiari's balky knee, the Packers cannot depend on a sudden improvement in Stokes' health.
As for Keisean Nixon and Corey Ballentine, the team's other most frequently used corners from 2023, both will require new contracts to stay in Green Bay. The front office should prioritize at least one of them this offseason, but neither can provide a panacea for the secondary. Nixon's performance in the slot improved over the course of last season and Ballentine delivered surprisingly competent play when injuries forced him into the starting lineup, but the Packers must improve in those spots for the defense to reach its potential.
All of which underscores the need for Gutekunst to make a meaningful cornerback addition this offseason. That could and most likely will come through the draft given the apparent depth at the position -- while the rookie class might lack a Patrick Surtain II or Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner type, plenty of quality prospects should last until the end of the first round or later -- but don't entirely rule out a free-agent addition. With Green Bay firmly in title-contention mode, luring an impact corner and potential ring chaser like Kendall Fuller could make sense for all parties, especially considering his past experience in the slot.
So, while the Packers have most of the cornerback roles filled already, they shouldn't simply bring back the band and hope for sufficient results. A key acquisition or two could supercharge the group and protect against the inevitable injuries.
The most popular name in a coaching search doesn't necessarily equate to the best results
JBH: When the news surfaced that the Packers had tabbed Hafley as their new defensive coordinator, many wondered aloud how the process reached that point. While Hafley had some name recognition -- he spent the previous four seasons as Boston College's head coach with stints with the Ohio State Buckeyes and multiple NFL teams before that -- his name had not previously appeared in reports or rumors about Green Bay's search.
At this stage, one can only discern so much about how the Hafley hire will affect the Packers. The Leap has already covered this terrain in our reporting on the team's hiring approach and his motivations for taking the job, the scheme shifts that will take place as the result of the DC change, and the fit between Green Bay's current defensive personnel and the new system. Still, much remains unknown about Hafley as an NFL defensive coordinator.
However, while Hafley has some questions to answer in the coming months, it bears mentioning how often coordinator performance deviates from the pre-hire hype. One doesn't even have to look far for an example: now-former San Francisco 49ers DC Steve Wilks.
When the 49ers hired Wilks last offseason, he came with no shortage of praise and attention. Large swaths of fans and media believed he should have landed the full-time head-coaching job with the Carolina Panthers rather than settle for a DC gig. Even so, Wilks seemed like a capable, veteran hand for a defense overflowing with field-tilting talent like Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and Charvarius Ward.
Since the 49ers sacked Wilks this past week, the discourse about him has gone in a predictable direction. Some have blamed head coach and offensive play-caller Kyle Shanahan for making Wilks a scapegoat for the recent Super Bowl loss. Others have pointed to the defense's season-long rankings -- third by points allowed, fourth by DVOA -- as indications that Wilks performed well in the role. Those arguments hold some merit, but they don't fully paint a complete picture.
Consider how the 49ers defense performed under previous leadership. With DeMeco Ryans at the helm just a season earlier, the unit finished first in both those metrics by a sizable margin. And while performance tends to vary more year to year on defense than offense, Ryans probably had the tougher task when considering the relative state of the NFC in 2022 versus 2023.
And whereas Ryans' defense stayed steady for the duration of the season, Wilks' version of the unit also ran out of steam down the stretch. From Week 10 through Super Bowl LVIII, the 49ers ranked 17th in expected points added per play and 19th in opponent success rate. And those figures don't even account for the times Shanahan had to grab the wheel from Wilks following the disastrous zero blitz against the Minnesota Vikings or the apparent Cover 0 look that required a timeout to undo during the Super Bowl. San Francisco also couldn't stop a cold for the majority of the divisional round and conference championship, nearly costing the team both games.
For Wilks, those issues with scheme and communication came back to haunt him.
"It's a really tough decision because it really says nothing about Steve as a man or as a football coach," Shanahan said of Wilks' firing. "He is exactly what we wanted as a man. He is a great football coach. But just where we're going and where we're at with our team from a scheme standpoint and things like that, looking through it all throughout the year, through these last few days, I felt pretty strongly that this was the decision that was best for our organization. And even though it was one I didn't want to make, it was something that once I realized that I think a different direction is what's best for organization, then it's something that I have to do."
Which brings us back to the Packers and Hafley. Wilks and Shanahan couldn't get on the same page frequently enough to reach their goals, an issue with which Green Bay struggled the past few years under former defensive coordinator Joe Barry. Hafley might not have the same bona fides as some of the other candidates considered for the job, but he can offset that with superior communication skills and better implementation of LaFleur's vision for the defense than Barry provided.
So, while Hafley doesn't arrive in Green Bay with the hype that other defensive coordinators might, his fit with the team and its leadership could render those concerns entirely moot.
Appreciate the insights into both our new DC and the San Fransisco situation on defense. Hope Green Bay develops clear and simple communication techniques that limit confusion.