How high is Dontayvion Wicks' ceiling?

With rookie Dontayvion Wicks moving closer to taking over as one of the Packers' primary wideouts on the boundary, it seems pertinent to establish what he brings to the table.

When the Green Bay Packers assembled the supporting cast for Jordan Love's first season as a full-time starting quarterback, they likely envisioned certain players serving as the fulcrum of his receiving corps. Christian Watson, the receiver who broke out during the second half of 2022, seemed ready to step in as the leader among the wideouts with Romeo Doubs, another second-year pro, serving as a safety valve. Jayden Reed, one of the team's big draft additions this year, would handle slot duties, jet sweeps, and other forms of offensive gadgetry.

Some of those plans have worked out better than others. Hamstring injuries have limited Watson to just nine games, including each of the past two contests. Perhaps because of those issues, his performance has fluctuated. Doubs leads the team in targets (84) and touchdown catches (seven) while also holding a sizable lead in first downs created (34), though his penchant for mishandling passes has limited his upside. Reed has seen the vast majority of his work from the slot (74.3% of his snaps) and has exceeded expectations, becoming a scoring machine and big-play threat.

Still, with Watson and Doubs dealing with different issues and Reed, while highly effective as a rookie, an atypical choice to play along the boundary due to his 5-foot-11, 187-pound frame, the Packers' passing game can't depend on just that trio alone.

The offense's particular needs have not gone unmet, however. Dontayvion Wicks, a fifth-round rookie who arrived in Green Bay with little fanfare, has earned a seat at the table with stellar play and perhaps a full-time starting role in the near future.

Back in late October, The Leap made the case that Wicks had earned a larger role on offense. At that time, the rookie had seen just 27 combined snaps over the previous two games despite showing an aptitude for separating from defenders in press and finding the soft spots in zone coverage. The Packers apparently saw the same traits, as Wicks' workload surged in the weeks that followed. That trend hasn't waned, with the wideout seeing 90 snaps during the past two weeks, all while battling an ankle injury.

In part because of those additional opportunities, Wicks has quietly put together an impressive season. With three weeks left in the season, Wicks has already amassed the eighth most receiving yards by a Packers rookie since the merger. He would only need to average roughly 62 yards per game the rest of the way to move into third place.

Still, those figures don't capture the full scope of Wicks' season. Because the rookie stood behind so many pass catchers in the pecking order early in the year, he has only appeared on 46% of the offensive snaps (sixth among the Packers' wideouts and tight ends) and only seen 49 targets (fourth). And despite the limited workload, Wicks' 10 reception of 20-plus yards leads the team while his 25 first downs created fall just one short of second place. When Green Bay needs a big play or to move the sticks, Wicks has proven he can deliver.

At this point, no one can debate whether Wicks has earned his seat at the table. He has arguably performed better than any other Green Bay boundary receiver this season -- Watson's health issues and struggles in contested-catch situations factor into this discussion -- and clearly shouldn't have lasted until the fifth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. But with Wicks' emergence comes bigger questions: What type of receiver can he become and how high is his ceiling?

When Wicks ran a 4.62-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, many teams wrote him off as anything more than a post-up, run-to-the-sticks type of receiver. Such preconceived notions don't just form without some cause. While few wideouts approach the wheels of, say, the Miami Dolphins' Tyreek Hill, most do have an additional gear those with Wicks' 40 typically lack.

But a deeper look into Wicks' timed speed shows what the raw number alone can't. While his 40 time graded well below average for NFL receivers, his splits show a much faster player. He hit the 10-yard mark in 1.55 seconds, above the 80th percentile for his position, according to Relative Athletic Score. His 20-yard split also rated above average.

And while Wicks won't win a track meet, he has more straight-line speed than his combine testing suggests. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Wicks reached a peak velocity of 18.67 miles per hour this season. Only three Packers wideouts ran faster at any point this season, and Wicks' top speed edged out that of star wideouts like Keenan Allen (18.45 miles per hour). Allen, who also battled concerns about his athleticism, currently leads the NFL in catches (108) and ranks fourth in receiving yards (1,243).

And Wicks' underlying metrics reveal a proficient downfield receiver. Entering Week 16, Wicks leads the Packers in yards per catch (15.8). While he does create well after the catch, he also works the field vertically on a fairly regular basis as his 10.6 average depth of target illustrates. For context, Watson emerged as one of the league's premier deep threats in 2022 while posting an ADOT of 13.8. A delta still exists between them, but not as large as many perceive.

Because Wicks has proven so efficient as a pass catcher and can capably work multiple areas of the field, he currently averages the 16th most yards per route run in the league (2.3), according to ESPN Analytics. Among rookies, only the Houston Texans' Tank Dell ranks ahead of him, and barely so at 2.4 yards/route. ESPN analytics also gave Wicks the fifth highest yards-after-catch grade through Week 15, putting him in the same tier as San Francisco 49ers' All-Pro tight end George Kittle.

Wicks showcased both the ability to create after the catch and aptitude for working downfield during last Sunday's tilt with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. On back-to-back third downs, he gave the Packers gains of more than 20 yards, one by literally running through defenders …

… and the other by getting open behind them.

In that way, Wicks bears a passing resemblance to former Packers standout Davante Adams. While no one would claim Wicks currently possesses Adams' vast arsenal of releases or penchant for making tough catches, the two receivers have similar builds, lower-body strength, and skill for breaking tackles while also sailing through coverage. Those two plays Wicks made against the Buccaneers look like the type of plays Adams often made during his time in Green Bay.

And those plays don't represent outliers for Wicks. Even before the Tampa game, he earned Pro Football Focus' top grade among Packers wide receivers for separation and at the catch point/yards after the catch. By those marks, Wicks rubs elbows with the likes of Philadelphia Eagles All-Pro A.J. Brown and outperforms stars like the Cincinnati Bengals' Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

(via @throwthedamball)

All of which underscores Wicks' potential as a high-end starting wideout. That he already excels in so many areas as a 22-year-old rookie puts him on a favorable trajectory, especially considering that he should make gains in both strength and speed as he moves deeper into his 20s. Even the areas in which he has fallen short like touchdown production and ball security can realistically improve with more red-zone opportunities and reps, respectively.

Whatever expectations Green Bay originally set for Wicks have gone out the window. With his first NFL season nearly complete, he looks like a near lock to serve as a Week 1 starter in 2024. More than that, Wicks looks like he could realistically make a star turn before his 25th birthday.  Whether that happens or not, the Packers have to feel extremely encouraged for a player they waited until the 159th pick to select. Wicks has already carved out a significant role in the offense, but he looks like an even bigger part of the team's future.

-- Jason B. Hirschhorn is an award-winning sports journalist and Pro Football Writers of America member. Follow him on social media: @by_JBH on Twitter / @by_jbh on Instagram / @JBH@mastodon.social on Mastodon / @byjbh@bsky.social on Bluesky / @by_jbh on Threads