How do the Packers follow up the Davante Adams trade?

With Davante Adams officially shipped out to Las Vegas, the NFL awaits the Packers' next move.

Good morning!

A week ago, the Green Bay Packers had yet to officially complete Aaron Rodgers' new extension and Davante Adams remained unsigned on the franchise tag. Much has changed in the days since. While Rodgers returning keeps the team's Super Bowl window open, the changes elsewhere create some giant questions. Green Bay still has time to address those concerns, but each passing day removes some options. The rest of the NFL will closely monitor how the front office handles the upcoming weeks.

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Did the Packers get enough in return for Davante Adams?

Jason B. Hirschhorn: When assessed purely in a vacuum, a first- and second-round pick in the upcoming draft represents a solid return for a wide receiver entering his age-30 season, even one as dominant as Davante Adams. While some semi-recent precedent exists for receivers garnering more via trade — the New York Jets traded Keyshawn Johnson for two first-rounders in 2000 — most garner much less.

Furthermore, few wideouts maintain All-Pro play far into their 30s, even athletic outliers such as Julio Jones or Calvin Johnson. Perhaps Adams beats those odds, but he doesn't have history on his side. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders have agreed to pay him a market resetting contract to find out whether he can.

But while that serves as an argument that the Raiders overpaid for Adams, it doesn't necessarily mean the deal made sense for the Packers. As I wrote last week, the risk of Adams' play regressing with age doesn't offer as much downside to Green Bay. The team's recent deals all suggest a contention window that closes by 2025 at which point a teardown will commence. So even if Adams no resembles an All-Pro in, say, two years, his decline most likely coincides with a roster reboot anyway.

All of which probably means that both the Raiders overpaid to acquire Adams and the Packers didn't receive enough to adequately account for his departure.

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Peter Bukowski: Maybe. Let’s say the Packers can swing a deal for a big-time receiver (more on that in a second). Let’s call him DK Metcalf for sake of argument. And let’s say the Packers give up a first-round pick and some stuff plus signing him to a new deal in that $20-22 million a year range. Is the gap between Adams and DK worth the $6-8 million in cap space plus a second-round pick?

It certainly could be. They used $6-8 million on Rasul Douglas. If the trade ahead of time was DK Metcalf, Rasul Douglas, and a second-round pick for Davante Adams, that would be a trade you do 10 times out of 10.

There is the important caveat that Adams clearly didn’t want to be in Green Bay anymore, wanted to play in Las Vegas, and therefore had leverage with the Packers who would want to go to Plan B as quick as possible. It’s the most given up for a receiver in modern history, so it’s hard to argue they didn’t get enough given the circumstances. But right now, my answer is TBD.

How do the Packers address the receiver position?

JBH: Those hoping for the Packers to end the streak of no first-round receivers will probably get their wish. The incoming class features no shortage of early round options, and general manager Brian Gutekunst and the personnel department can realistically grab multiple pass catchers within the first 59 picks following the Adams trade. Not every wideout fits the team's traditional thresholds — Penn State's Jahan Dotson for example — but prospects like USC's Drake London, Georgia's George Pickens, and the Ohio State tandem of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave should garner serious consideration if Green Bay has the chance to draft them.

But a rookie or two won't alone solve the Packers' issues in the receiving corps. Landing a veteran starter to help ease the burden ranks a top priority at this stage of the offseason. Perhaps that means bringing back Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but the offense also needs a more traditional X receiver to fill Adams' role. The remaining veterans on the free-agent market either have availability concerns — Julio Jones in particular — which could lead Green Bay to consider the trade market.

The Packers surely considered these avenues before trading Adams, so expect the other shoe to drop at some point before the draft. They know the receiving corps needs more than just an early draft pick.

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PB: A first-round receiver is a lock at this point, but the question is how aggressive do they get to add a veteran? Julio Jones or Will Fuller (or how about both?) make sense at low-ish money and grabbing a rookie or two early. But I think there’s the potential for a big move coming.

Robert Woods went to the Titans for a song, in this case, hummed to the tune of a sixth-round pick. Presumably, the Packers would have blown that out of the water to the point it’s worth it for the Rams to send him to a fellow NFC contender. Los Angeles doesn’t strike me as the kind of team that makes moves that way anyway; they want to get the best assets they can.

Green Bay not being in that conversation could hint at larger plans in the works. I’ve heard buzz around Keenan Allen and DK Metcalf, while Tyler Lockett is also reportedly available in Seattle. Brandin Cooks would be a fit and already knows the offense from his time with the Rams.

I’ll have more this week on options in the draft.

As of this moment, where do the Packers stack up in the NFC?

JBH: With the receiving corps covered in construction tape at the moment, the Packers don't currently resemble NFC front-runners on offense. As Peter and I have already detailed, the unit will look markedly different come training camp, but the prompt here asks us to compare and contrast the NFC teams as currently constituted.

In that regard, the Packers fall short of the other favorites to win their divisions. The Los Angeles Rams have reloaded on offense even if it might not entirely compensate for the departures on the other side of the ball. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did a fine job of surrounding Tom Brady with weapons as well as patching holes in the offensive line. The Dallas Cowboys also still look in decent shape despite losing a bidding war for Randy Gregory and salary-cap restrictions forcing the trade of Amari Cooper. At present, Green Bay doesn't have the firepower on offense to keep up, at least with Valdes-Scantling still a free agent and Allen Lazard still officially unsigned.

But again, these represent technicalities and short-term concerns. The Packers will seriously address the receiving corps in the coming weeks and months at which point a fairer evaluation can take place.

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PB: When healthy, they’re in the mix with the Buccaneers and Rams, but for now behind those two teams. Tampa and LA each lost some key pieces but neither will have to account for a player as essential to their team as Davante Adams with the Packers.

Had Adams stayed, I would have pegged the Packers as the favorites and the oddsmakers mostly agreed. In an extremely weak division, the Packers can still get to 11 or 12 wins with the duct tape approach at receiver if the defense plays to its talent, which now boasts arguably (and I would, in fact, argue) the best secondary in football.

If they take a big swing at receiver, they catapult right back to the top of the list for me.

Parting shots

PB: The Robert Tonyan signing shouldn’t go too far under the radar. Tonyan became a safety net for Rodgers over the last two seasons. Bringing back Tonyan and Cobb provides a pair of players to the quarterback who he trusts in big moments. One of the keys to the 49ers defending the Packers’ passing game so effectively was Rodgers’ unwillingness to look at players like Josiah Deguara even though he was open all game.

With Tonyan, that calculus changes with one of the most reliable set of hands in football at the moment. It also allows the Packers to give Deguara more time to develop at his pace rather than forcing Rodgers to trust him in pressure-filled scenarios before either is ready.

Green Bay still needs that big swing at receiver, but getting Tonyan and Cobb back, along with long-time Rodgers favorite Allen Lazard, at least provides a baseline comfort level for Rodgers while he gets up to speed with whatever combination of veterans and rookies Brian Gutekunst puts together for this 2022 season.