False Confidence: Nobody actually knows what Aaron Rodgers would fetch on the trade market

Several hypothetical trade proposals for Aaron Rodgers have surfaced over the past week, but the market involves too many variables to accurately forecast.

Even though the dust has yet to settle from the Green Bay Packers' 2022 season, the spotlight has again fallen on the franchise and its mercurial quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. The four-time MVP has revived speculation regarding his future and whether he might spend the final chapter of his illustrious career in a place other than Wisconsin.

Just over the past week, several hypothetical trade proposals for Rodgers have surfaced in the media. NBC Sports' Peter King opined that the New York Jets would gladly part with at least two first-round draft choices for Rodgers due to owner Woody Johnson's desperation for his first star quarterback "since the Broadway Joe days." ESPN's Jeremy Fowler relayed that one league executive wondered whether the Indianapolis Colts could enter the fray for the veteran signal-caller, dangling the No. 4 overall pick in the upcoming draft as bait.

But those assessments don't necessarily reflect what an actual trade will bear. While NFL talent evaluators still view Rodgers as a field-tilting presence, the uncertainty surrounding how much longer he intends to play, control over his destination, and changes in the quarterback market from a year ago limit the ability to predict what the Packers could realistically receive for Rodgers' services.

Perception of Rodgers' abilities and shelf life

Most of the conversations about a potential Rodgers trade use last year's Russell Wilson exchange as a guidepost of sorts. That blockbuster agreement saw the nine-time Pro Bowl signal-caller and the 116th overall pick shipped to the Denver Broncos in exchange for two first-rounders (No. 9 overall in 2022 and, ultimately, No. 5 in '23), two second-rounders (No. 40 in '22, No. 38 in '23), and a fifth-rounder (No. 145 in '22). Wilson's former team, the Seattle Seahawks, also received a trio of players: defensive lineman Shelby Harris, tight end Noah Fant, and quarterback Drew Lock.

While most agree that the Packers wouldn't net that sort of package for Rodgers now, the Wilson deal serves as a key data point for assessing how the league's general desperation for quality play under center. At the time of the trade, Wilson had come off two less-than-stellar seasons and appeared to have diminished physically. Even so, the Broncos viewed Wilson as a cornerstone player and traded a considerable amount to acquire him.

In that sense, Rodgers' value might not have diminished as much as the general public believes. Though 2022 represents his worst season as a starter, several underlying metrics demonstrate he hasn't declined as much as the raw production suggests. And putting the numbers aside, other NFL teams continue to view Rodgers as the kind of signal-caller capable of putting a good roster over the top. The Packers don't even necessarily need multiple suitors to drive up demand as the option to run it back with Rodgers in 2023 remains on the table, providing leverage.

Of course, Rodgers and Wilson have starkly different shelf lives. Though the Broncos' signal-caller turned 34 during the past season, the team had every reason to think he would continue playing for the foreseeable future. Rodgers doesn't offer much clarity on that front. Even now, it remains unknown whether the four-time MVP will even suit up in 2023 despite having around 60 million reasons to do so. Even if he returns next season, he has provided no indication as to whether he'll continue to play in '24 and beyond.

Could a team value Rodgers highly enough to make the Packers an acceptable offer while also receiving no guarantees that the quarterback will play more than one season? Perhaps, but that scenario involves plenty of moving parts for which no one can fully account.

Rodgers' de facto no-trade clause