Edgerrin Cooper's emergence can kickstart NFC run for surging Packers
The Packers went into Seattle and got a win for the first time in over 15 years, thanks in large part to the play of their rookie second-round linebacker.
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Today's edition of The Leap chronicles the return of Edgerrin Cooper, the most dynamic playmaker on the defense outside of Xavier McKinney, some conservative Matt LaFleur decision-making, and more.
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Edgerrin Cooper has become undeniable … right? RIGHT?!
Peter Bukowski: I guess we’ll see, but the Sunday scintillation levels were undeniable. Cooper led the team in tackles despite not starting at linebacker. Even an injury to Quay Walker didn’t appear to change the usage for Cooper materially, but he produced anyway.
If we forget the regular tackles, he tallied an interception, a sack, and another near interception on a play he read perfectly. Add a tackle for loss in the run game and the Seahawks game showcased what has coaches and fellow players raving about Cooper’s capabilities.
Back in October, I wrote that Cooper’s play insulated him from being buried too much on the depth chart. He was, it seemed, undeniable. That turned out to be only partially true. Injuries derailed a promising stretch of play, but he still gave way to Isaiah McDuffie and Eric Wilson far more often than the tape warranted.
Since then, we’ve seen even more flashes of his brilliance, from sack-fumbles, to incredible coverage range, and now turnover creation. In fact, that piece came before the game against the Jaguars that saw Cooper make an unbelievable pass breakup from a mugged-up alignment into the deep middle in Cover-2. He also had a sack in that game.
If he’s going to start adding interceptions to the list of things he can do, Green Bay might have its first genuine linebacker star in decades. Kingsley Enagbare suggested after the game Cooper had a Hall of Fame future.
What’s the deal with Matt LaFleur playing so conservative this season?
PB: Matt LaFleur went from one of the most aggressive kick-go decision-makers in the NFL, to the most conservative this season. Our old pal Tex Western wrote about this issue at Acme Packing Company last week and we discussed it in further depth on Locked on Packers.
The models won’t say anything LaFleur did stands out as particularly egregious this week, but that’s mostly because those models said the Packers had a win probability over 95% for more than half the game. A fourth-down decision doesn’t move the needle much.
That being said, field goals inside the five should be grounds for a Congressional hearing for an offense as good as the Packers. The game perfectly laid out the reason why good process matters. Conventional wisdom says 4th-and-1 at the five, leading 20-6, take the field goal and make it a three-score game.
Great work, right? Except the next two drives for the Packers went three-and-out followed by a fumble that led to a touchdown to cut the lead back down to 10 with plenty of time left. A more aggressive approach insulates LaFleur’s team against that eventuality. And 14 is very different than 10, especially with a backup quarterback.
Ben Baldwin’s model estimated the Packers had a 65% chance of getting the first down. Their chances of scoring were probably nearly as high with a first-and-goal inside the five. For an elite offense, that’s a no-brainer decision to go for it.
On 4th-and-3 at midfield, the Packers tried to draw the Seahawks offsides instead of just getting three yards. They punted. It’s in the DNA of teams like the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles to go in those situations. Green Bay has to hope LaFleur’s conservative streak doesn’t cost them a shot in the playoffs.
"Once we got to midfield, we needed to be more aggressive. That was just lousy play-calling by me," LaFleur said after the game.
It’s not just kick-go calls either. With four seconds left at the end of the first half, the Packers could have tried to score a touchdown on a quick pass and still kicked the field goal. They went the conservative route.
Credit to LaFleur, who wore that one after the game too.
“I totally mismanaged the end of the half. That was 100% me, just being too indecisive. Putting it on Jordan.” LaFleur said.
“That is something that can't happen. That can cost us if it were a tighter game."
After the aforementioned Cooper interception, the Packers had a chance to put in the knife into the Seahawks just outside the red zone. On the first play after the turnover, they ran an inside handoff, a LaFleur special this year rather than trying to hit the kill shot.
“All gas, no brake,” has fallen by the wayside, something that can happen when some bad outcomes cloud one’s judgment. And the more losses that pile up in the playoffs or in big games for LaFleur (or any coach), the more that can drive decision-making. He can’t coach scared. He has as much job security as anyone not named Andy Reid in the NFL right now.
He has to coach like it.
Playoff picture is muddier than ever
PB: We know now the Packers can punch their postseason ticket with a win over the New Orleans Saints on Monday night, but beyond that, the NFC is an enigma wrapped in a question, wrapped, presumably in bacon this time of year.
The Lions loss magnifies the missed opportunity by the Packers last week. With the Detroit defense devastated by injury, they look vulnerable in ways the Vikings and Eagles don’t right now. Green Bay had a chance to be in the NFC North division race if they could have pulled that one out, but that dream is all but dead now.
If the season ended today, the Packers would travel to Tampa Bay to face a scary Buccaneers team that just throttled the Chargers. It wouldn’t be much more fun to head to L.A. if the Pack can reach the five seed either. Green Bay won a head-to-head matchup there already, but that was without Cooper Kupp or Puka Nakua for the Rams.
The Packers could still play the Vikings or Lions in a Wild Card game as well. Detroit’s loss opened up the chance for a winner-take-all game between the Lions and Vikings to close the season, a game that could well decide who gets to host Green Bay in Round 1. Most likely, that would only be if the Pack somehow fell to the seven spot.
It’s crazy but true that the Packers could win out and still be looking at no better than a six seed. But they could also be facing a meaningless Week 18 game with literally nothing on the line despite no shot to host a home playoff game.
A wild finish to come.
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