Despite run game dominance, Packers can't get away from passing, especially on early downs

Matt LaFleur would have an excuse for riding his pony package duo all season, leaning on the ground game, and letting Aaron Rodgers manage along. But Rodgers isn’t Jimmy Garoppolo and that’s the point. The San Francisco 49ers saw the limitations of a great run game and great defense in the postseason. Trey Lance garnered a trio of first-round picks for a reason: you still need to pass to win in the NFL. That means despite early season success on the ground, the Packers have to keep their foot on the gas through the air, which for now means finding more ways to throw on early downs.

Through two weeks, the Packers have one of the lowest early-down pass rates in the league.

Peter Bukowski @Peter_Bukowski

This is something to keep an eye on. #Packers have been one of the most run heavy teams on early downs this season so far despite being 7th in early-down pass EPA.

Early down pass rate (with a win probability within 20-80%) this season is 24th through 2 weeks at 47.8%. That’s down wildly from the previous three seasons when the Packers passed on early downs in neutral situations at a 55% clip, the 7th highest rate in the NFL over that time period. Interestingly though, they were 7th in passing EPA on early downs heading into Monday night and likely passed the Titans and Vikings after their showings. They’re doing it well.

Intuitively, we might say they should do it more. On the other hand, the counter will be that they’re actually 5th in rushing EPA on early downs. They’re running it even better relative to league average than they’re throwing it.