Can the Packers afford to overlook major injuries in draft prospects?

With several highly touted but injured prospects expected to last into the Packers' range, the team must weigh long-term upside with their small contention window.

Good morning!

Draft week officially kicks off in 14 days, and teams have all but finalized their draft boards. Though some meaningful events will transpire between now and when NFL commissioner Roger Goodell reads the first pick — USC wideout Drake London's individual pro day in particular — the Green Bay Packers have largely cemented their plans.

But while the team knows what it wants to do, those on the outside lack clarity, at least on a few parts of the process. The Leap dives into some of those topics today.

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How much of a factor do you believe a severe injury like an ACL tear should play in the Packers' evaluation of rookie prospects?

Jason B. Hirschhorn: In most respects, a severe injury to a draft prospect shouldn't impact the Packers' evaluation unless that player has significant long-term concerns stemming from that issue. Even ACL tears, once considered a career-changing injury, tend not to alter a player's trajectory outside of the recovery and rehabilitation periods. While their draft stock can and usually will take a hit, their long-term value doesn't tend to change considerably.

But because the Packers have a short window in which to contend for a title, lost time from a potential draft pick matters more than it has in the past. If, say, Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams remains available when Green Bay comes on the clock, the time he will lose during training camp and at least the early parts of the season due to January's ACL tear has to weigh heavily. Not only would he lose on-field time learning the offense — a period of critical importance to rookie receivers — but he will also have little opportunity to build chemistry with Aaron Rodgers in one of his final seasons in the league.

Does that make Williams undraftable? Of course not, but it could validly push the Packers to take another prospect who can help the team more over the next two years even if Williams stands a good chance to develop into a better player. The best front offices draft with the future in mind, but Green Bay's event horizon only extends out so far given Rodgers' timeline. In this situation, giving additional weight to the next 12-24 months makes sense provided only a reasonable drop-off in value.

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Peter Bukowski: The smart way to treat prospects is to ignore what they’re likely to be in Year 1 because most rookies are bad. On the other hand, an injury for most or all of a player’s first year is far more deleterious to their development. We hear coaches and players talk about how badly an injury impacts the learning curve even for just a few days in training camp or the preseason.

Now multiply that by the time lost for months without practice time other than mental reps. These players won’t get the chance to get up to speed until the fall of 2023 at the earliest, and then they’re essentially rookies again when we can expect them to be, as I stated above, bad.

There’s an ocean of difference between what Rashan Gary went through, playing a part-time role for the first two years of his career, and what say Jordan Love has gone through. Not getting on the field at all has lasting impacts on development.

A team like the Jaguars or Lions shouldn’t care. Take David Ojabo or Jameson Williams without a second thought because their win horizon is much further out. For the Packers to make a move like this would require their evaluation to be such that not only do they think the player can contribute as soon as he’s healthy, but that the upside of that player is worth the lost time in their lack of playing time.

It’s not everything, but it can’t be nothing for a team like Green Bay.

From a value standpoint, which defensive lineman from the 2022 NFL Draft do you believe makes the most sense for the Packers to add?

JBH: I wrote this question specifically for Peter to wax poetic about one of his favorite prospects in the 2022 NFL Draft. However, I had another player in mind for this exercise.

As regular readers of The Leap know by now, the Packers prioritize athleticism at most positions, especially along the trenches. The defensive linemen they've selected have tested at or near the top of their groups. Not all have hit; former third-round pick Montravius Adams never developed into more than a rotational piece. But strong athletic traits helped the team identity UCLA's Kenny Clark, once considered a slight reach in the first round who grew into perhaps the NFL's premier nose tackle. Likewise, the unheralded Dean Lowry garnered little attention coming out of Northwestern but has since become a solid starter, a nice return on a former Day 3 pick.

The Packers could spend an early selection on an interior defensive lineman again. However, if they choose to wait, they could find a useful player from a small school in the later rounds: Missouri State's Eric Johnson.

Johnson has played a lot of college football, starting 35 games despite the pandemic wiping out the 2020 season. Johnson also offers promising length (6-foot-4, 34.25-inch arms) and mass (299 pounds) and has a track record of making plays in the backfield. He also tested exceptionally during the pre-draft process, earning a Relative Athletic Score of 9.16.

Like most players from the FCS, Johnson probably won't make a tremendous impact from scrimmage as a rookie. However, his athletic traits offer long-term potential as a versatile defensive lineman as well as Year 1 utility on special teams (specifically Tyler Lancaster's old roles on the two field-goal units). It should come as little surprise that the Packers have already met with him as one of their top-10 pre-draft visits.

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PB: Well Jason, I’m so glad you asked. Travis Jones from Connecticut is my guy in this draft. If they can grab a receiver at 22, he’s a green light player for me at 28. If not for Jordan Davis’ incredible combine, we’d be talking more about Jones’ performance in Indianapolis where he ran 4.92 at 325 pounds. That’s a Speed Score in the 95th percentile.

But he also showed excellent lateral movement skills with an Agility Score in the 80th percentile. My position on interior defensive linemen has long been that if they can’t contribute as pass-rushers, they aren’t worth taking in the first round. Jones can do that in more than just a pocket-pushing way thanks to his athleticism and 34 1/2” arms.

While evaluating him, I wrote in my notes, “Has the chance to challenge Kenny Clark as the best pass-rushing nose tackle in football.” With Joe Barry wanting to play Clark more as a 3T, adding Jones to this defensive line room, eating up bodies, and freeing up De’Vondre Campbell to run around making plays would be a boon for this defense.

How should the Packers improve their special-teams units during the draft?

JBH: As I highlighted in my response to the previous question, adding athletic, versatile players to beef up the field-goal units could go a long way toward preventing meltdowns like the ones Green Bay experienced too often in 2021. Finding returner help on punts and kickoffs would solve some problems as well.

However, identifying the right long-snapper should make the biggest impact given where the Packers struggled the most over the past half decade. During that stretch, Hunter Bradley knuckleballed too many snaps to accurately tally while his midseason replacement, journeyman Steven Wirtel, didn't possess the size to reliably keep opponents at bay. While Wirtel currently remains on the roster, the front office will add competition for his job in the coming weeks and months.

That doesn't mean the Packers should use a draft pick on the position. Not only does that represent a poor use of resources, but general manager Brian Gutekunst missed the last time he tried with the aforementioned Bradley. Teams find capable long-snappers every year in undrafted free agency. Green Bay's next long-snapper will probably come from there as well.

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PB: Find a dedicated returner. The Packers drafted Amari Rodgers to be a featured part of the offense. Brian Gutekunst told reporters after the 2021 draft they were deciding between Rodgers and Josh Myers when they were on the clock in the second round which is they ultimately traded up for Rodgers in the third.

Randall Cobb won’t play forever and Rodgers, assuming he gets better in Year 2, will grow into a larger part of the offense. There are some exciting returners in this close who could double as useful players in a Matt LaFleur offense with schemed touches. Drafting someone to be Tyler Ervin on Day 3 makes sense to bolster some special packages LaFleur might conjure up on offense, as well as give new special teams coach Rich Bisaccia someone to groom as the primary, dedicated return man for the Packers, something they haven’t had in since what seems like Roell Preston.

There’s some wisdom in keeping the cycle moving as the Packers often did under Ted Thompson where the next young receiver or running back would be the returner for a year or two while they grew into the offense, but that will require Gutekunst to keep drafting those players, something this front office has not prioritized for the better part of the last decade.

Parting shots

PB: David Bakhtiari became the second Packer in the last week or two to publicly flirt with a receiver who may or may not be on the trade market. After Kylin Hill suggested D.K. Metcalf come to Green Bay, Bakhtiari hit Keenan Allen’s mentions with some compliments.

Was he just being a nice guy? Maybe. Would Bakhtiari love to see Allen in Green Bay? Definitely. Does it actually make any sense for the Chargers to trade him? No, but owners do dumb stuff. A little public flirting never hurt, especially now that Bakhtiari is actually married.

Peter Bukowski @Peter_Bukowski

Recruiting??