Brian Gutekunst took the long way to find value in 2024 NFL Draft

It was a big of an "eat your vegetables" draft for the Packers, filling key deficits on defense. How did the Green Bay front office do matching need with value?

Good morning!

The picks are in and after a wild ride of a weekend, the Green Bay Packers have assembled their 2024 draft class. The top of the draft went almost exactly to plan before general manager Brian Gutekunst and his compatriots (co-conspirators?) in the front office seemed to get lost in the sauce a bit, eventually coming back with more conventional picks to close.

Today's edition of The Leap breaks down whether or not Gutekunst ultimately found value in this class, the best picks, and more.

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Did the Packers find value in this draft?

Peter Bukowski: The Packers got there … eventually. There was a stretch in the middle rounds where Gutekunst seemed more set on stumping the ESPN and NFL Network trucks with players more likely to be UDFAs than fourth- or fifth-round picks, but then he went on a heater to close that draft that evened the final product out.

Oddly, Gutekunst went chalk with his first four picks.

The Packers took Arizona offensive lineman Jordan Morgan with the 25th overall pick, landing at No. 35 on the consensus board put together by former The Athletic writer Arif Hasan who pioneered the mainstreaming of consensus boards. He now has his own site at Wide Left.

Green Bay traded down to take Edgerrin Cooper at No. 45, the explosive Texas A&M linebacker who landed at No. 37 on the consensus board. Georgia defensive back Javon Bullard, the 58th overall pick, came in 63rd by consensus with USC running back MarShawn Lloyd, the 88th pick, ranking 94th by consensus.

It’s hard to get any more down the middle than that.

Then the Packers’ front office might have started breaking out the brandy because things took a turn. Here’s how the next three picks went with the consensus ranking in parenthesis.

91. Ty’Ron Hopper, LB, Missouri (153rd)
111. Evan Williams, S, Oregon (197th)
163. Jacob Monk, OL, Duke (272nd)

From a process standpoint, that’s a red flag. Straying that far from consensus invites unnecessary risk, and history tells us reaches of that degree tend to miss while “steals” tend to … well, not be. The NFL may not be great at determining who will be good, but they’re much better at decoding who won’t be. If a player sticks around a while, the league tends to be right about them, though we can think of obvious examples even if just the last few Packers classes.

That said, the strongest picks on Day 3 came at the end, grabbing Oregon State safety Kitan Oladapo, Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt, and former All-American cornerback Kalen King from Penn State. They demonstrated considerable value for their draft positions, to the point that if we were to sub them in for the mid-round picks the Packers did make, the class itself would make more sense.

Here is the class using only their consensus board ranking:

35. Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona
37. Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
63. Javon Bullard, DB, Georgia
94. MarShawn Lloyd, RB, USC
127. Michael Pratt, QB, Tulane
144. Kitan Oladapo, DB, Oregon State
153. Ty’Ron Hopper, LB, Missouri
156. Kalen King, CB, Penn State
197. Evan Williams, S, Oregon
267. Travis Glover, OL, Georgia State
272. Jacob Monk, OL, Duke

There’s still no way to wiggle around the Travis Glover or Jacob Monk picks in particular, each of whom was projected UDFAs by consensus. Monk went more than 100 spots ahead of where he was expected to go. Still, taking him in the seventh round would not be out of the ordinary. In the aggregate, they got players who fit nearly every spot.

Who is the pick who will look most surprising (good or bad) based on where they were drafted?

PB: The obvious answer here is Kalen King, the 21-year-old cornerback from Penn State. Based on the 2022 season, King profiled as a future first-round pick. He was tough, aggressive, and full of potential, but to say his play fell off a cliff in 2023 would be underselling it.

For reference, King’s Pro Football Focus grade went from 89 to a vertigo-inducing 60.3. Ohio State wideout Marvin Harrion Jr. absolutely roasted him, though that’s not uncommon for the No. 4 overall pick. Still, King has size, experience, and only just turned 21. He was balling at a blue-blood school as a teenager.

King could strike lightning twice after Carrington Valentine came out of nowhere to become a valuable contributor last season as a starting cornerback while Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes missed time.

Green Bay didn’t draft a cornerback until its very last pick and Matt LaFleur says Stokes has “been full go” during offseason workouts and looks “great” coming off an injury-plagued season. King performed at an extremely high level in 2022, and if the Packers can coax some of that play out of him, they could find themselves with a star corner. That’s how well he played two seasons ago.

The Packers aren’t afraid to go back a year to find the good tape, something they also did in this draft with Missouri linebacker Ty’Ron Harper. King could be the steal of the entire draft.

What else did we learn on draft weekend?

PB: The draft picks weren’t the only signal. Who the team didn’t pick tells us as much or even more about where the team views its current roster. As stated, the Packers didn’t draft a cornerback until their final pick, an enormous vote of confidence in Stokes, Valentine, and Corey Ballentine.

If Stokes can regain his athletic form after a slew of lower-body injuries sapped him of his athleticism last season, he still has considerable value to the defense. Meanwhile, the scheme changed to a more aggressive coverage style with more press and man coverage will suit him.

LaFleur also revealed that pass rusher Kingsley Enagbare didn’t fully tear his ACL as originally feared and has not undergone surgery. He’s been rehabbing and the team thinks he’ll be ready for camp. This revelation would explain why the team eschewed pass rushers in this class.

We also learned from LaFleur that Morgan will begin working at left tackle but can expect to be cross-trained. This will be a key positional battle to watch. If Morgan beats out incumbent Rasheed Walker, would the coaches move him to the right side to facilitate Zach Tom kicking inside to center? Would they consider moving Morgan to make the same move?

The only thing we can safely assume at this point is a lot will change along the offensive line over the next year, but this starting position raises more questions than it answers.