Assessing the true risk of adding Davante Adams at this stage of his career

NFL history suggests that Davante Adams doesn't carry the same degree of risk as other players his age.

Good morning!

The 2025 NFL Scouting Combine concluded on Sunday. The full impact of the prospect testing will take weeks to unpack, but much of the real action from Indianapolis took place outside of Lucas Oil Stadium. Teams and agents use the combine to meet and discuss potential deals. That included the Green Bay Packers, who found themselves attached to rumors.

Today's edition of The Leap looks at Green Bay's purported interest in acquiring a veteran wide receiver.

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Assessing the true risk of adding Davante Adams at this stage of his career

Jason B. Hirschhorn: With the Packers' potential pursuit of veteran receivers one of the topics du jour during combine week, it bears discussing the risk profile of such moves. Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst has shared his beliefs about older players in the past. In particular, he expressed trepidation about investing significant resources in someone past his peak.

"It depends on who the player is and what he can give you," Gutekunst said in his season-closing press conference of adding a player late in his career. "I don't particularly want to see someone on the backside of their career. I don't think that's something I'd be particularly interested in."

So, would a veteran wideout like Davante Adams make sense in this context? The three-time All-Pro turns 33 later this year, putting him past the typical sell-by date for most at his position. Even if Adams doesn't cost the Packers much to acquire in a trade and would agree to, say, the 2025 equivalent of the most recent Mike Evans contract, would that make sense for the team?

Maybe more sense than most would initially suspect.

Looking at the full history of NFL receivers paints a pretty bleak picture for those in their age-33 seasons or older, but that doesn't necessarily represent the right way to approach a player like Adams. Few wideouts have enjoyed his success and consistency over a decade in the league, and narrowing the scope to those who can match his productivity might give a better indication of what he can do moving forward.

And the pool of Adams' peers suggests that the receiver probably has more in the tank. Only nine players have ever recorded at least 11,844 receiving yards and 103 receiving touchdowns, Adams' career totals entering 2025. Among that group, only two failed to reach or exceed 1,023 receiving yards and six touchdowns in their age-33 seasons. Those exceptions come with caveats too, as Tony Gonzalez played another position (tight end) and Randy Moss changed teams twice during the year.

However, the age-33 seasons from the rest of the group reveal just how well this caliber of pass catcher can perform. Four recorded 12 or more touchdowns. Multiple caught more than 100 passes. One even set his career high for receiving yards in a single season (1,848).

Of course, the Packers wouldn't need Adams to deliver one of his best seasons to validate his addition. If the veteran wideout can simply provide layups on money downs and pull attention away from the young, developing members of the team's receiving corps, he will have justified his return to Green Bay.

And based on Adams' most recent season, he can still provide that level of play. In 2024, Adams delivered 83 catches for 1,063 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in just 14 games. That production looks favorable enough in a vacuum, but consider the context in which he played. Adams spent last year catching passes from Aidan O'Connell, Gardner Minshew, and a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers.

If Adams can do all that with two backup-level passers and the shell of a former MVP quarterback, it doesn't require much imagination to suggest he could do at least as much with Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur, and the Packers offense.

Adams appears highly likely to become available too. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport took a break from the Starbucks Thunderdome to report that the New York Jets will either trade the superstar receiver or cut him before the new league year. Adams' contract currently carries a $38.2 million cap hit that would only fall to roughly $36 million for a team acquiring him in a trade. The Packers would either have to negotiate a new contract with Adams, convert much of his base salary into a signing bonus to spread over the remaining years of the deal (two real, two void), or hope to sign him as a street free agent if the Jets release him.

The Packers would most benefit from signing Adams as a free agent, but that path features the most risks. Adams might prefer another destination and/or receive a more lucrative offer than they can afford. However, if Gutekunst trades for Adams -- likely at the cost of a nominal draft pick given the Jets have to move the receiver one way or another -- Green Bay would gain exclusive negotiation rights with the veteran. Working out a new deal with Adams as part of the acquisition shouldn't prove too difficult to derail the process either.

Whether or not the Packers truly want to add a veteran pass catcher remains a matter of some debate. However, if they chose to pursue one seriously, Adams probably makes the most sense even at his age and with the hurdles involved in order to return him to Green Bay.